"An End to this Policy of Patience": An ATL by Addemup

Deleted member 94680

This feels like a defensive war though

It might “feel” like it, but if Austria attacks first, then the Germans are only obligated to maintain a “benevolent neutrality”. For the Germans to be obliged to go on the offensive, Austria must be attacked, or attacked by a nation with direct support from Russia.
 
Getting their heir assasinated by serbia is not an act of war? Or must it be an acutal invasion to trigger the treaty?

EDIT: With Willy II in command of germany though the precise details of the treaty probably won´t matter in this case however.
 
Getting their heir assasinated by serbia is not an act of war? Or must it be an acutal invasion to trigger the treaty?

EDIT: With Willy II in command of germany though the precise details of the treaty probably won´t matter in this case however.

Except without an investigation (for which there is no time to have occurred) there's no proof the assassin is connected to the Serbian State. As far as anybody is concerned by any reasonable legal standard, there's no national involvement to trigger the Triple Alliance treaty. Which gives Italy a much better excuse to duck out
 
Alright, I changed the first timeline post so that Germany doesn't guarantee complete military support in the new war that just broke out - instead, they would only offer partial support to Austria-Hungary. I've decided that it would be a more plausible outcome after reading your posts.
 
I'm watching this with interest; this site always needs more WW1 timelines! Got my fingers crossed for a surviving Russia, or at least one that does better than OTL.
 
II: July 2 to July 5
Wednesday, July 2: Prime Minister of the United Kingdom H. H. Asquith meets with his cabinet to discuss what action to take following the abrupt beginning of the "Austro-Serbian Crisis". By the end of the day they arrive at a consensus to remain diplomatically and politically neutral for the time being. The governments of France and Italy soon come to a similar decision over the course of the next few days.

Thursday, July 3: The Kingdom of Serbia begins to mobilize its armed forces in response to the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war.

Friday, July 4: The Austro-Hungarian military, now fully mobilized, begins its invasion of Serbia. They manage to shell the Serbian capital of Belgrade with their artillery throughout that day, and the Austrian Army's generals begin to prepare for a full siege of the city by the end of the day.

Saturday, July 5: The Army of the Austro-Hungarian Empire begins the Siege of Belgrade, cutting off about half of the supply routes to and from the city. King Peter I had stayed in the Serbian capital following the Austrian declaration of war, ignoring all attempts to convince him to evacuate.
 
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Deleted member 94680

Pretty much. In OTL, the Austrians managed to bomb the city with artillery by the end of the day they declared war.

Day after, actually.

so they advanced quite fast to belgrade then?

True, but they hardly “cut off” Belgrade. The artillery was all on the Austrian side of the river and access from the other side of Belgrade was still open. To surround the Serbian capital would require a river crossing that the Austrians couldn’t manage that soon OTL.

71_C8_C4_FA-1_AC6-49_E9-_B9_C2-_B512060_BAD7_D.jpg


Remember, in 1914 Belgrade was on the border with Austria-Hungary, so the artillery was safely in Austrian territory when they opened fire.
 
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True, but they hardly “cut off” Belgrade. The artillery was all on the Austrian side of the river and access from the other side of Belgrade was still open. To surround the Serbian capital would require a river crossing that the Austrians couldn’t manage that soon OTL.

Ah, I see. Like I said, I don't really know all that much about OTL World War I as you guys do.

Also, thanks for the useful map!
 
Day after, actually.



True, but they hardly “cut off” Belgrade. The artillery was all on the Austrian side of the river and access from the other side of Belgrade was still open. To surround the Serbian capital would require a river crossing that the Austrians couldn’t manage that soon OTL.

71_C8_C4_FA-1_AC6-49_E9-_B9_C2-_B512060_BAD7_D.jpg


Remember, in 1914 Belgrade was on the border with Austria-Hungary, so the artillery was safely in Austrian territory when they opened fire.

One woulden't nessicerily have to surround Belgrade to cut off "about half the supply routes" as suggested though. If Austrian gunboats can get a dominating control of the Danube and the heavy artillery trained on the (static) rail lines and main roads, it'd be possible to effectively area-deny the usual commerical traffic from within Austrian borders. The Germans used similar tactics in an effort to cut off the logsitics routes into Verdun two years later. Of course, that means you aren't aiming at military formations which drastically hinders their ability to get an infantry beachhead and push back the Serbian army.
 

Deleted member 94680

One woulden't nessicerily have to surround Belgrade to cut off "about half the supply routes" as suggested though. If Austrian gunboats can get a dominating control of the Danube and the heavy artillery trained on the (static) rail lines and main roads, it'd be possible to effectively area-deny the usual commerical traffic from within Austrian borders. The Germans used similar tactics in an effort to cut off the logsitics routes into Verdun two years later. Of course, that means you aren't aiming at military formations which drastically hinders their ability to get an infantry beachhead and push back the Serbian army.

I was referring to OTL though.


All this required to cut off Belgrade needs the Austrians to be significantly more prepared than they were OTL, in a shorter time period. That in itself is unlikely, given the Austrian supply, mobilisation and command issues they had OTL. It adds more PoDs to the list required.

In my opinion, swifter Austrian action will result in less effective early moves, not better ones.
 
What if the Austro-Hungarian Empire had started their war against Serbia merely a few days after Archduke Ferdinand's assassination?
A-H is universally denounced for its recklessness and violation of all rules of international relations. Russia issues an immediate ultimatum to stop. Hungary refuses any cooperation with the A-H armed forces. In OTL, Hungarian PM Tisza was strongly against the war until it was clear that Germany insisted on it. He would never go along with a shoot-from-the-hip war.

Germany doesn't quite know what to do. OTOH, they wanted A-H to start a war; but not like this!
 
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