An early start

What if FDR could use fear of Hitler developing an atomic bomb to get Congress to fully fund the Manhatten Project in 1941. tThe bomb is ready a year earlier. In August 1944, Hiroshima and Dresden are nuked. hHirohito surrendèrs, but Hitler vows to fight on. hHe is overthrown and the new government gives up. In Europe, the allies quickly approve occupation zones that are the same as OTL.
tThe Soviets quickly occupy most of Eastern Europe. tTito accepts the German surrender in Yugoslavia and Britain moves into Greece. tThe Cold War starts one year earlier. One the other side of the world US and Commonwealth forces accept the Japanese surrender. wWithout Soviet aid, Mao never takes power. tThe is no Korean War. wWhich means that there are no US bases in Europe. tThe Republic of Vietnam uses US aid but not US troops to fight the Communist guerrillas. cChina industrialized in the 1970s, when foriegn investors realize the value of cheap labor.
 
Couple of thoughts:
1. I don't think the US has bases that can hit Japan yet, and not sure if they had close enough bases in China, so no way to deliver the bomb. This is about a month after the Battle of the Philippine Sea, while the Battle of Leyte Gulf is in Oct 1944. These 2 defeats, plus Germany getting nuked, may be enough for peace. Of course, if the hardliners find out how survivable a nuclear bomb is (i.e. in caves, although regrettable for civilians) ("relativity") would they still push for no peace?

2. I think Germany eats both: the Allied Leaderships feared Germany more AIUI, so let's say both hit. This is just a month after the July Plot, so maybe this is enough to cause the Germans to break the Nazis and surrender, but I lean towards no. Too many Nazi generals, and the "moderate" ones have just been purged. It feels like 1944 was in Germany itself the strongest the Nazi apparatus had been, if that makes sense.

3. Don't think it will affect the Western Front in the short term, since unless the Heer surrenders, there is still not enough fuel. Although, the chaos in leadership may lead to the Falaise Pocket to get closed, so a faster breakout on the Rhine.

4. FDR probably tells Stalin in advance, so Eastern Front the same; if Stalin surprised, could overreach thinking the war will end in weeks.

5. I think you are right about China, if Japan surrenders. Chiang was incompetent, but my understanding is that the sudden surrender of Manchuria led to Mao getting a lot of weapons, plus inflation. Chiang is better off, but may still screw up.

It should end the war sooner. If in a few months, could Poland be free? I don't know enough about the minor powers, but they may try for peace (how to do that while avoiding Nazis and Communists) as soon as possible.
 
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