An early Russian-China alliance in 1880

Although some people here think that the Opium wars ruined Imperial China, actually Imperial China did recover, what ruined imperial China was the massive defeat of the First Sino-Japanese War which opened up China to Japanese military aggression and also started a string of conflicts with European power who also wanted a bit of the cherry. Imperial China fell soon after the war.

The war itself could have been avoided, but I think that soon Japan and China would have still come to blows, if not over Korea then somewhere else. Japan was keen to expand, and China was in her way. I think we can presume that in a short time, these two powers are going to come to blows.

The other problem is that the Chinese leadership was overconfident, it thought it could hold on its own militarily successfully against Japan. What it turned out was that the Chinese defeat was due mainly to poor morale, poor leadership both political and militarily rather than equipment.

So let us say that the Chinese leadership sees reality and decides much earlier that it needed to make an alliance with a Western Power to survive. It then selects Russia in exchange for commercial and possibly land concessions. China then integrates its military in with Russia.

Japan might then think twice about getting in a war with China, if it did China and Russia should be able to hold Japan long enough as Japan cannot last a prolonged conflict.
 
I honestly think that it made more sense for Germany to ally with China than for Russia to ally with China.The main threat would be Russia rather than Japan.Very few people at the time(even the Europeans) actually thought that Japan had the capability to defeat China,let alone Russia.

Germany had far less conflicts of interest with China than Russia would with China.

Russia was definitely a much greater threat to China than Japan during that period of time.Even when it was winning,Japan does not have the money and industrial strength to post as an existential crisis as it latter did during WWII.
 
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I honestly think that it made more sense for Germany to ally with China than for Russia to ally with China.

I was thinking that too, the problem is that Germany will not have sufficient military in the region at that time so France or Britain would be as such a better option.
 
I was thinking that too, the problem is that Germany will not have sufficient military in the region at that time so France or Britain would be as such a better option.

Didn´t the Germans help the Japanese build up its military and industry at about that time?
 
I was thinking that too, the problem is that Germany will not have sufficient military in the region at that time so France or Britain would be as such a better option.
That is the point really.The nature of the alliance would be to help China man up in terms of its’ institutions,industry and military equipment,so that it would pose as a threat to the European powers’ holdings to the east,without having to commit actual German troops to the area(other than German officers and advisors).Any German deployment to the Far East would weaken commitments to the European front.

German will likely profit greatly if they sold equipment to China at a price that’s much lower than the other European powers(the prices were quite extortional),but still higher than manufacturing cost(considering the much larger market).

Countries like Britain and France will be less eager to help because they will almost try and limit what China’s growth,given their commercial and territorial interests in the area.France is also allied with Russia.
 
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Didn´t the Germans help the Japanese build up its military and industry at about that time?

The British the navy and the US, the education system


That is the point really.The nature of the alliance would be to help China man up in terms of its’ institutions,industry and military equipment,so that it would pose as a threat to the European powers’ holdings to the east,without having to commit actual German troops to the area(other than German officers and advisors).Any German deployment to the Far East would weaken commitments to the European front.

German will likely profit greatly if they sold equipment to China at a price that’s much lower than the other European powers(the prices were quite extortional),but still higher than manufacturing cost(considering the much larger market).

Arms were not the problem, what the Chinese needed was troops which means to save China we need Russians or Britain.

Countries like Britain

If Britain is offered a great commercial deal maybe... Plus their strong navy would make a lot of difference.

and France will be less eager to help because they will almost try and limit what China’s growth,given their commercial and territorial interests in the area.France is also allied with Russia.

In which case, Russia looks even better
 
I honestly think that it made more sense for Germany to ally with China than for Russia to ally with China.
I was thinking that too, the problem is that Germany will not have sufficient military in the region at that time so France or Britain would be as such a better option.


A Chinese Alliance would have destroyed Germany. China could offer no real help to Germany. The Sino-Russian border isn't close to anything vital to the Russians in the late 19th Century and the Chinese don't have much ability to attack it anyway. They would have to build thousands of miles of railroad track through empty lands to get there and the Russians could simply withdraw a hundred miles north

On the other hand, a Sino-German alliance would make Russian expansion eastward impossible. Russia would then turn its attention to the West- i.e. Germany. It would mean the billion and a half rubles spent on the Trans-Siberian railroad would be spent on Polish railways. Russian mobilization would be only days behind Austro-German

It would mean that Russia would avoid the Japanese War and probably the 1905 Revolution. With an intact navy, Russia would be able to contest the Baltic making landings impossible. This would free up twenty divisions to strike at Berlin

The 100,000,000 rubles Russia spent in 1910 rebuilding her war stocks would have gone to expanding them This alone could win a war

In exchange, China could bombard Vladivostok, a sleepy port that supplied a wilderness and invade Sakhalin Island
 
A Chinese Alliance would have destroyed Germany. China could offer no real help to Germany. The Sino-Russian border isn't close to anything vital to the Russians in the late 19th Century and the Chinese don't have much ability to attack it anyway. They would have to build thousands of miles of railroad track through empty lands to get there and the Russians could simply withdraw a hundred miles north.

How would this destroy German?

On the other hand, a Sino-German alliance would make Russian expansion eastward impossible.

I doubt that Germany would be prepared to go to war with Russia without A-H support over China. Which means that Germany must supply troops in China in large enough quantities to stop the Russians, this would require a sizable German army in China.

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It would mean that Russia would avoid the Japanese War and probably the 1905 Revolution.

Also if China does not fight or China does not lose the Sino-Japanese war, this happens too.
 
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