An early end to WW1

Lets say after Amiens, that on August 15th 1918, Germany, Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey as for terms of an armistice simultaneously and accept them. Can they get better terms than OTL? What are the effects to an early end of war:

Reduced Flu effects in October 1918?
Reduced American input at peace conference?
France less fought over?
Austrian independence movements?
Russian civil war?
Yugoslavia?
Lots more people still alive?

(POD could be: Ludendorf resigns OR in our TL Austria was begging Germany to make peace, this time Germany listens OR the Crown Prince (a peace advocate) really gets in the Kaisers ear.)
 

raharris1973

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Lets say after Amiens, that on August 15th 1918, Germany, Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey as for terms of an armistice simultaneously and accept them. Can they get better terms than OTL? What are the effects to an early end of war:

Reduced Flu effects in October 1918?

-Maybe

Reduced American input at peace conference?

It is hard to tell where the US made the difference. The main difference I am aware of is Pershing favored the harsher Foch armistice terms that pried the Germans out of the Rhineland. Maybe with an August conclusion, the British are so dominant in the coalition that they go with Haig's armistice idea that leaves Rhineland in German hands, and Germany possibly less helpless when confronted with Versailles terms.


France less fought over?

-Yes, especially parts closest to Belgian border

Austrian independence movements?

-Probably same as OTL

Russian civil war?

-Already started and pretty much in full swing

Yugoslavia?

-Good question

Lots more people still alive?

- 3 months worth, it probably is.

(POD could be: Ludendorf resigns OR in our TL Austria was begging Germany to make peace, this time Germany listens OR the Crown Prince (a peace advocate) really gets in the Kaisers ear.)
 
It is hard to tell where the US made the difference. The main difference I am aware of is Pershing favored the harsher Foch armistice terms that pried the Germans out of the Rhineland. Maybe with an August conclusion, the British are so dominant in the coalition that they go with Haig's armistice idea that leaves Rhineland in German hands, and Germany possibly less helpless when confronted with Versailles terms.

If the armistice terms were Germany evacuates France, Belgium, Alsace Lorraine (keeping Rhineland), surrenders all 2+ engine aircraft, all heavy artillery over 150 mm, all submarines, Allied POWs returned (but not German), German warships kept in port, unfueled and/or uncoaled, German merchants outside Baltic still subject to capture, German in East Africa to be evacuated. Then Germany would have defensive capability, but no real strategic offensive capability.

It seems the Allies and Germany would accept such terms on August 15th.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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What terms do you see for the other Central Powers-

The less harsh armistice for Germany, it seems to me, means that we are left with a Germany that is capable of shaping its borders with Poland, Austria and any potential Czech successor stay in a way that it finds more congenial than OTL's Versailles and St. Germain borders.
 
You might see the German monarchy (including the constituent kingdoms like Bavaria) surviving in an August armistice scenario, butterflying the Weimar Republic (although not a postwar Social Democrat - led government, most likely).
 
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