An early Belgium (c) 1609?

If archduchess Isabella (daughter of Phillip II) and Archduke Leopold (younger brother of Emperor Rudolph) had had a son, Phillip III would have devolved the Spanish Netherlands to them as a separate country. Phillip hoped that the Dutch Republic would be more willing to reunite with an independent Belgae and end the Dutch Revolt.

If the child was bore between 1605 and 1617, this would have happened during the 12-year Truce of the Dutch War and before the Defenestration of Prague. (And given the ages of both, 1605-1609 is the most likely time of a successful pregnancy).

What are the possible effects of an independent Belgium this early? Parma would still be there, but now in charge on the Belgian army, which would be smaller. the End of the Spanish Road if this becomes a permanent Peace.

Could it short circuit the 30 Years War into just the Bohemian Revolt (1618-20), ending with White Mountain?
 
Would it survive? I imagine that France would be even more tempted to invade in this scenario. Belgium would still be ruled by a Hapsburg, only a weaker one.

BTW, the Truce was from 1609-1621, so the first part of your cited timeframe was during the war.
 
Would it survive? I imagine that France would be even more tempted to invade in this scenario. Belgium would still be ruled by a Hapsburg, only a weaker one.

Sure, but don't you think Rudolph would protect his brother, and Phillip III his sister? France is also still dealing with Huguenots, and attacking Belgae would risk both The Empire and Spain stomping with both feet.

BTW, the Truce was from 1609-1621, so the first part of your cited timeframe was during the war.

I'll grant that I had the dates off (I was away from my books at the time I posted). I'm thinking that the Spanish Netherlands becoming independent under Leo and Isabella's child is a price Phillip III would pay to end the Dutch War. It's still Hapsburg, and closer to Holland than Spain is. With an actual long term peace instead of a short term truce, the Dutch might not be as willing to support Fredrick V and the Protestant "Paladins" after White Mountain.

That's the direction I'm thinking of going in, at least.
 
I think you mean archduke Albrecht (Albert) and not archduke Leopold, unless Isabella marries an ATL relative. (younger brother of HRE Rudolf II and HRE Matthias)

Interestingly Albrecht was ahead of OTL Ferdinand II in the line of succession of the Austrian Habsburgs. So if Albrecht has surviving male issue, he might see himself as the candidate to succeed HRE Matthias in his Austrian Habsburg lands.
De facto that would mean that the Southern Netherlands go to the Austrian Habsburg branch.
 
I don't think this "Belgian" army would be smaller. As far as I know the model was a satellite state, with the army still organised with the rest of the Spanish Empire and a part of that army was paid for by the local population. Although a separate army might exist for a while to lure the Dutch back, it will not work because of the religious aspects of the war. We're already nearing the point that Catholics and protestants want to fight each other to slay the unbelievers.
 
Getting the Dutch Republic to unite with this ATL Belgium would require intervention by a vampiric flying mammal of the cosmic variety. That said, let us suppose a child such as the one proposed in the OP is born, and let us assume that Phillip indeed decides to grant the Spanish Netherlands to Isabella and Albrecht as a separate country.

Since such a child would be born just before or early on during the Twelve Years' Truce, such a development might at least strengthen those seeking to make the truce into a lasting peace. If "Belgium" makes overtures of peace to the Republic (possibly with the desire to re-unite as a single country, but also something that just makes good sense in the interests of trade), the Dutch Republic would feel less threatened by the prospect of war.

Major Dutch butterfly: this strengthens the position of raadpensionaris Johan van Oldenbarnevelt (who advocated the truce and wanted lasting peace) while weakening prince Maurits (commander of the military, who wanted war). IOTL, Maurits had Oldenbarnevelt executed on trumped-up charges of treason. In this ATL, Oldenbarnevelt might come out on top. That would weaken the House of Orange, and make the Dutch Republic more... republican. In addition, Oldenbarnevelt was a proponent of far-reaching religious freedom, while Maurits was more conservative. If Oldenbarnevelt gets the upper hand, the Republic will likely be even more tolerant than it was IOTL.
 
If archduchess Isabella (daughter of Phillip II) and Archduke Leopold (younger brother of Emperor Rudolph) had had a son, Phillip III would have devolved the Spanish Netherlands to them as a separate country. Phillip hoped that the Dutch Republic would be more willing to reunite with an independent Belgae and end the Dutch Revolt.

Firstly I think you mean Archduke Albert VII of Austria. Isabella had originally been betrothed to Rudolf, but when he finally decided he wasn't gonna get hitched, she was married off to his younger brother, the then Cardinal-Archbishop of Toledo, Albert of Austria.

If the child was bore between 1605 and 1617, this would have happened during the 12-year Truce of the Dutch War and before the Defenestration of Prague. (And given the ages of both, 1605-1609 is the most likely time of a successful pregnancy).

Isabella and Albert had three children:
Philip (b. 21 October 1605)
Albert (b. 27 January 1607)
Anna Mauritia (b. 1608)
However, all three died in early infancy from what I can make out. There's not much written about the pregnancies in most articles I've read on Albert and Isabella, and the above info comes from a preamble in a book on Sir Peter Paul Rubens.

Perhaps if Isabella and Albert had been married earlier (for instance, if Rudolf had decided to quit pussyfooting around) - I'm of the opinion that the children's deaths were more likely due to their mother's age at the time of their birth (+39yo), and women generally experience a decline in the possibility of carrying a pregnancy to term or of the baby being born healthy after middle age sets in. And in Antonia Fraser's Love and Louis XIV the general age of menopause in the 17th century is estimated at between 32-42 (as opposed to today where it's later), Isabella drew the short straw.
 
Getting the Dutch Republic to unite with this ATL Belgium would require intervention by a vampiric flying mammal of the cosmic variety. That said, let us suppose a child such as the one proposed in the OP is born, and let us assume that Phillip indeed decides to grant the Spanish Netherlands to Isabella and Albrecht as a separate country.

Since such a child would be born just before or early on during the Twelve Years' Truce, such a development might at least strengthen those seeking to make the truce into a lasting peace. If "Belgium" makes overtures of peace to the Republic (possibly with the desire to re-unite as a single country, but also something that just makes good sense in the interests of trade), the Dutch Republic would feel less threatened by the prospect of war.

Major Dutch butterfly: this strengthens the position of raadpensionaris Johan van Oldenbarnevelt (who advocated the truce and wanted lasting peace) while weakening prince Maurits (commander of the military, who wanted war). IOTL, Maurits had Oldenbarnevelt executed on trumped-up charges of treason. In this ATL, Oldenbarnevelt might come out on top. That would weaken the House of Orange, and make the Dutch Republic more... republican. In addition, Oldenbarnevelt was a proponent of far-reaching religious freedom, while Maurits was more conservative. If Oldenbarnevelt gets the upper hand, the Republic will likely be even more tolerant than it was IOTL.

even if "Belgae" remains independent (Just because Phillip III wanted a reunification doesn't mean it would happen!), a permanent Peace would mean a drawing down of the Army of Flanders and the Spanish Road, saving Spain at least one major drain on its resources.

I was thinking with a Peace faction in the Dutch republic, perhaps they wouldn't back the Protestant "Paladins" after White Mountain (like Ernst von Mansfield) and there wouldn't be a Spanish Road to conquer Palatinate from. Shorten the 30 years war to a Bohemian revolt that ends in the 1620s with much stronger Hapsburg position in Europe that still holds pretentions to a Universal Monarchy? (The Emperor as, essentially, King of all Kings)
 
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Perhaps if Isabella and Albert had been married earlier (for instance, if Rudolf had decided to quit pussyfooting around) - I'm of the opinion that the children's deaths were more likely due to their mother's age at the time of their birth (+39yo), and women generally experience a decline in the possibility of carrying a pregnancy to term or of the baby being born healthy after middle age sets in. And in Antonia Fraser's Love and Louis XIV the general age of menopause in the 17th century is estimated at between 32-42 (as opposed to today where it's later), Isabella drew the short straw.

Pardon my necrophilia, I just thought I'd share a bit of info about Isabella that I had recently come across.

Even if she had married earlier, Isabella would (most likely) have had problems conceiving (much like her grandmother Catherine de Medicis originally).

In 1583, when Isabella was 17, King Philip [II] wrote to his sister saying: "I am rather worried as Isabella has not yet had the camisa* and Catalina, a year younger, is going to make two years with it"

*the Spanish term in the period for menstruation

It then goes on to say that even if she had married at the "normal" age for the times, her irregular periods might've made conception difficult.
 
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