What happens to the history of WW2 if Congress passes the Two Ocean navy act in October 1939 alongside the fleet expansion program that was passed otl in June 1940?
The naval treaties expired when WW2 started. One of the major changes would be that with the Essex design not yet ready I'm pretty sure at least three more Yorktowns would be built which would make 1942 much more interesting as they would probably be available for the Guadcanal campaign or its equivalent and Torch, especially when combined with the extra cruisers and destroyers that would be available. Alas I'm also certain that the USN's torpedoes will still not be fixed before the US gets invovled in WW2.Well if the USN's out of treaty limits I could see them having more Cleveland's and Baltimores in the war by 42 which probably means the Iowas are going to be sooner and maybe more of the Alaska's are made (perhaps not the original designed one as of OTL) before late 44' early 45'.
The biggest thing is if the USN are still being held by treaty limits for capital ships, cause if not then that means more leeway for cruisers and capital ships in general.
The Large number of DD, and Subs ordered also helps out for 41' when the US enters the war.
If only Bu-ships had been established in 1935.As for Bu-Ord maybe the increased funding enables the navy to actually do some weapon testing in proper depth, and the need for literally thousands of torpedos makes a new torpedo production plant necessary which would hopefully be ready by the end of 1941.I've got to think about this one. Bu-Ord, Bu-Eng, Bu-Air and C and R are seriously messed up during these critical 1930s years. Better leadership might have been far more important than an earlier series of Navy bills.
The Two Ocean Navy Act only passed in the panic resulting from the Fall of France.
The 1939 expansion was incredible enough in peacetime. I can't imagine any scenario that could cause the TONA to get passed in 1939.
Heck, even Hitler declaring war on the US at the same time as on Britain and France wouldn't get you the full thing. Imo.
1) Hitler can't reach the US. So there won't be that sense of panic.That seems unlikely. If Hitler declares war on the US, the US will go on a full war footing right away and that includes the navy.
Functionally for a Naval War involving Germany the USN in 1938 said they needed 27 Battleships, 12 Carriers, 26 Heavy and 43 Light Cruisers not regarding any lighter units1) Hitler can't reach the US. So there won't be that sense of panic.
2) the US would expect France and Britain to carry the initial load.
3) Hitler would be defeated by armies, not navies.
4) what Navy is needed in the Atlantic is DEs, frigates and DDs for escort duty.
Thus a Hitler DoW in 1939 would lead to a massive expansion of the army, tank production, etc., with the Navy getting more, sure, but nothing like the TONA.
1) Hitler can't reach the US. So there won't be that sense of panic.
2) the US would expect France and Britain to carry the initial load.
3) Hitler would be defeated by armies, not navies.
4) what Navy is needed in the Atlantic is DEs, frigates and DDs for escort duty.
Thus a Hitler DoW in 1939 would lead to a massive expansion of the army, tank production, etc., with the Navy getting more, sure, but nothing like the TONA.
TONA was only passed when France fell, and people panicked. Yes it would be toned down that much.Remember the TONA was passed only a year later with Japan being only moderately more of a threat. It's certainly possible its toned down a bit but maybe not as much as you think.
TONA was only passed when France fell, and people panicked. Yes it would be toned down that much.
Functionally for a Naval War involving Germany the USN in 1938 said they needed 27 Battleships, 12 Carriers, 26 Heavy and 43 Light Cruisers not regarding any lighter units
In 1939 they would thus be short
3 Battleships
4 Aircraft Carriers
6 Heavy Cruisers
10 Light Cruisers (not sure of this number, depends on what authorized when RE Cleveland and Atlantas)
Any USN program involving a war with Germany has to include at least this much, realistically more as many of the ships already existing would be marginal, ie Arkansas, New York and Texas for Battleships, Ranger and Wasp for Carriers, the 10 Omaha class cruisers
Fundamentally it's about 50% the Two Ocean Navy Act in Cruisers, 25% in Carriers and 40% in battleships to start with, counting the need to replace less capable units it should be closer to 80% in cruisers, 33% in carriers and 80% in battleships if not more
Note that's just for Germany and dealing with the possibility of a Japanese backstab. If the USN feels it needs to prepare for a full on offensive War with Japan as well as with Germany, then things get bigger. For that the Navy says they need 32-40 Battleships, 12-18 Carriers, 29-41 Heavy Cruisers and 55-67 Light Cruisers
Or needing to authorize 8-16 Battleships, 4-10 Carriers, 9-21 Heavy Cruisers and 22-34 Light cruisers, which at the minimum equals the Two Ocean Navy Act in Battleships and Cruisers, at Maximum substantially larger in everything but carriers
Alas I'm also certain that the USN's torpedoes will still not be fixed before the US gets invovled in WW2.
And Wildcat will have problems with guns jamming and Dauntless will get its bombsight fogged in warm temperature. This combination will handicap USN carrier operations during the first months of war no matter if TONA comes earlier.
In my opinion with the early start to the TONA You would probably see a half dozen more Helena Mods of the Brooklyn class, and 3 more Wichitas, before the design work is ready to go on the Clevelands and Baltimores.