An Earlier Savoy Unification of Italy

A policy based on marrying heiresses to substantial and formally independent states would certainly be to the interest of the Savoys, and I don't think that they would ever reject such a possibility: after all, Farneses and Medicis married into the houses of Bourbon and Habsburg. It should be however noted that Anne Marie Louise was offered in marriage to the Savoy too (among others: Anne Marie was offered also to Portugal and Spain) but Vittorio Amedeo refused preferring to marry a French princess to reinforce his alliance with France against Spain (and in any case Anne Marie was not considered a potential heiress to the grand-duchy having two brothers). Incidentally, James II Stuart proposed his brother-in-law Francesco II d'Este as a husband, but apparently Anne Marie (or more likely Cosimo III, since AM was just 15 years old) refused this potential husband since the ducal house of Modena was not considered on a par with the Medici. A more likely POD (still not an easy one though) would be to have Anne Marie marrying Francesco d'Este and producing a male son. Even if Francesco still dies in 1694 (quite likely, since he was in poor health), this heir to Modena would have a very good chance to inherit Tuscany too if the marriages of Francesco and Gian Gastone are the same as IOTL).
The problem is why the Savoys should be allowed to significantly expand: maybe Parma (which would certainly be a stretch), certainly not Tuscany or Milan. It would not be in the interest of Spain, France or Austria to allow the formation of a substantial and potentially rich state in Italy. IOTL the game of musical chair was properly played by the three major powers only, and it's not a surprise that Austria gained Tuscany but at the same time Lorraine went to France, and Parma to Spain. Cosimo III of Tuscany tried many times to ensure that the Grand Duchy would remain independent, but all his attempts were in vain (Anne Marie Louise was never included in the succession, a tragicomic attempt to produce a heir by having his younger brother Francesco Maria renounce his cardinal hat and marry Elisabetta Gonzaga failed since the groom died before consummating the marriage and a last ditch attempt to donate the grand-duchy to the Este of Modena was vetoed by the emperor).
IMHO the Savoy did well to keep their independence and Vittorio Amedeo extracted the maximum he could rationally obtain from the war of the League of Augusta and later from the war of Spanish Succession: the treaty of Utrecht gave Savoy substantial territories in lower Piedmont and the island of Sicily with a royal crown. Even if he was forced to swap Sicily with Sardinia in 1720, the fortunes of Savoy had substantially changed. Incidentally Milan was never on the table at the time. Charles Emmanuel III tried to take advantage of the was of Polish succession allying with France, marching on Milan and taking the ducal crown, but in the end he had to give back most of Lombardy, obtaining only some border adjustments on the east and the city of Novara.

Alright, so what if Anna Maria Luisa marries Francesco II d'Este and produces this hypothetical son (Francesco III?). Said son inherits Tuscany and Modena, whilst Anne Marie d'Orléans marries Vittorio Amadeo and has more or less her OTL kids, except the Prince of Piedmont, Vittorio Amadeo, survives smallpox in 1715 and marries Elisabetta Farnese. Now we have two blocs in Northern Italy - Savoy-Parma (possibly with Monferrato and parts of Milan added) and Tuscany-Modena. How do things proceed from there?
 
Alright, so what if Anna Maria Luisa marries Francesco II d'Este and produces this hypothetical son (Francesco III?). Said son inherits Tuscany and Modena, whilst Anne Marie d'Orléans marries Vittorio Amadeo and has more or less her OTL kids, except the Prince of Piedmont, Vittorio Amadeo, survives smallpox in 1715 and marries Elisabetta Farnese. Now we have two blocs in Northern Italy - Savoy-Parma (possibly with Monferrato and parts of Milan added) and Tuscany-Modena. How do things proceed from there?
Let's start with the easy part: the marriage of Anne Marie and Francesco II is successful and blessed with 3 sons (Francesco, 1682; Cosimo, 1687; Alfonso, 1691)and two daughters (Isabella, 1684; Maria, 1686). It's not too much of a stress: Anne Marie was a passionate woman and her OTL marriage with the Elector Palatine was a happy one (although without progeny: Anne Marie became pregnant soon after her marriage and gave birth to a son, who died immediately; there were no more pregnancies, and it is thought that was caused by the syphilis of the Elector Palatine). It is reasonable to believe she might thrive in Modena, much closer to her homeland).
Francesco II dies more or less on schedule in 1694, and Anne Marie becomes regent for her minor son, Francesco III. Let's make another assumption: the marriage contract include a clause according to which the descendants of Francesco and Anne Marie will inherit Tuscany if the male line becomes extinct (this is a bit more tricky, since the emperor will not be happy to approve such inheritance clause; it's however early enough to believe that Francesco or Gian Gastone de' Medici will produce an issue, so it should not be a major stumbling block. Alternatively the issue might be settled in the 1720s negotiations for the Pragmatic Sanction, assuming that Marie Therese is still the prospective Habsburg heiress).
The war of Spanish Succession will go as per OTL, and neither Tuscany nor Modena will participate. Same thing for the second round in 1717, when Philip V of Spain tries to retake Sardinia, Sicily and Naples.
In 1720 Austrian possessions in Italy include Milan, Naples, Sicily and the State of Principals (a string of fortresses on the Tuscan coast and the island of Elba, under Spain from 1547 and ceded to Austria in the peace of Utrecht).
It has become clear at least from the early 1710s that a succession crisis is coming up in Tuscany (Francesco is dead without issue and Gian Gastone's proclivities are obvious) and Cosimo has been agitating to find a solution. ITTL there would be an obvious one (or maybe two): Francesco of Este might unify Modena and Tuscany or alternatively Francesco becomes the heir to Tuscany and Cosimo will succeed as duke of Modena (something of this kind happened in 1759 when Charles of Bourbon-Naples took the Spanish crown as Charles III, but had to relinquish the crown of Naples to his 3rd son Ferdinand). An additional complication for Modena is that the Stuarts are no more on the throne of Great Britain, and therefore British support is uncertain.
There is another potential succession crisis in the near future since Elisabetta Farnese will almost certainly inherit the duchy of Parma and Piacenza: IOTL she married Philip V of Spain in 1714, and I suppose that it will not be easy to find a reason to waive away this marriage. A possibility might be to marry Elisabetta to Francesco of Este (rather than to a Savoy) with the pact that Parma will go to Modena after the death of Elisabetta, and Piacenza will be annexed to the Austrian duchy of Milan. This solution however will most likely prevent a union between Modena and Tuscany. The Savoy are closer to France after the peace of Utrecht, and their ambitions over Milan are an open secret. Everything is very complicated: Elisabetta Farnese has a claim over Tuscany, beyond the stronger one on Parma; the Polish succession crisis is also coming up (and if Tuscany is unavailable as a compensation it will be more difficult to sort out the aftermath of this crisis) and Charles VI of Habsburg has only daughters (although he is still in his thirties). Sorting out this mess will not be easy.
 
As for the Habsburgs a lot depends on the Point of Divergence, Maria Theresia had an older brother, Leopold Johann, who died aged 7 months, just before she was born. She or one of her sisters might have been a boy instead, which would butterfly away the need for a Pragmatic Sanction. And if one starts in 1682, well Maria Theresia was born in 1717. A lot will depend on the PoD, 1682 won't butterfly Charles II of Spain, so a War of the Spanish Succession still seems rather likely, IMHO even if Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria would have survived, France, Austria and Savoy would try to get something out of it.

I was under the impression that the Bourbons were more interested in trading some land in Southern Italy(either Naples or Sicily) for the entirety of Piedmont and Savoy in order to connect their lands to the Duchy of Milan in the event they won.

Not only Savoy and Piedmont were considered, Lorraine (& Bar) were considered as an alternative there, to trade their lands for Naples or Sicily. I guess Naples would have been most fitting for Lorraine, since the house of Lorraine had inherited the claim Valois-Anjou had on the Neapolitan throne.
 
As for the Habsburgs a lot depends on the Point of Divergence, Maria Theresia had an older brother, Leopold Johann, who died aged 7 months, just before she was born. She or one of her sisters might have been a boy instead, which would butterfly away the need for a Pragmatic Sanction. And if one starts in 1682, well Maria Theresia was born in 1717. A lot will depend on the PoD, 1682 won't butterfly Charles II of Spain, so a War of the Spanish Succession still seems rather likely, IMHO even if Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria would have survived, France, Austria and Savoy would try to get something out of it.



Not only Savoy and Piedmont were considered, Lorraine (& Bar) were considered as an alternative there, to trade their lands for Naples or Sicily. I guess Naples would have been most fitting for Lorraine, since the house of Lorraine had inherited the claim Valois-Anjou had on the Neapolitan throne.

That was my point too. I would say it is not too much of a stretch to keep everything as OTL (with the only exception of the husband for Anne Marie de Medici and her children) until the peace of Utrecht (we would assume that the WSS is not changed by the Pod since Tuscany and Modena stayed out of it). Afterwards there should be some major changes, in particular if Philip V does not marry Elisabetta Farnese.

The claim on Naples should not be anymore viable, since the peace of Utrecht has assigned the kingdom to the Habsburg. There might be a possibility to install Francis of Lorraine on the throne of Naples and Sicily so that Lorraine goes to France (which would be an important acquisition for Austria), but I think that should be compensated by the State of Principals (to Tuscany) and Parma to Modena (Piacenza might be a welcome acquisition for Savoy). All this assume that Charles VI has only daughters, though
 
Lorraine was considered for this during the same time Savoy was, in the negotiations France and England-Scotland had about the various partition treaties, before the actual war of the Spanish Succession. The duke of Lorraine & Bar, due the constant threat posed by France (the duchies were occupied by France at various times) might be much more inclined to agree to such a deal. This is all before the eventual treaty of Utrecht and would have been offered to duke Leopoldn (Joseph) the father of Francis Stephen and would have had nothing to do with the OTL Lorraine Tuscany exchange.
If the choice would be between Naples or Sicily, then IMO Naples would be more fitting given that they had held that title in pretence since the late 15th century. Naples and Sicily would be very generous.

Savoy wasn't interested in giving up Savoy proper and/or Piedmont in exchange for Naples and/or Sicily, but I doubt they would have opposed the acquisation of Naples and/or Sicily in addition to the Savoy and Piedmont, even though their main ambition was Milan.

I once thought about a kind of title carousel, if Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria survives, I now realize wasn't that probable:
The Bavarian house of Wittelsbach gets Spain (including the Balearics) and the Colonies, but has to cede the electorate of Bavaria to the now also Catholic Elector Palatine from the Palatinate Branch of the house of Wittelsbach.

The house of Lorraine cedes the duchies of Lorraine & Bar to France, but is richly compensated with the kingdoms of Naples (Presidi could go to Tuscany, hadn't thought about that one at the time) and Sicily

The house of Savoy gains the duchy of Milan and also the kingdom of Sardinia, to give them the same rank as the house of Lorraine

The Austrian Habsburgs get the Spanish Netherlands
I realize the tricky bit would have been, how to get France and Austria agreeing with this. Well obviously the ended up or were forced to agree, that none of them would get the Italian possessions.
 
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As for the Habsburgs a lot depends on the Point of Divergence, Maria Theresia had an older brother, Leopold Johann, who died aged 7 months, just before she was born. She or one of her sisters might have been a boy instead, which would butterfly away the need for a Pragmatic Sanction. And if one starts in 1682, well Maria Theresia was born in 1717. A lot will depend on the PoD, 1682 won't butterfly Charles II of Spain, so a War of the Spanish Succession still seems rather likely, IMHO even if Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria would have survived, France, Austria and Savoy would try to get something out of it.



Not only Savoy and Piedmont were considered, Lorraine (& Bar) were considered as an alternative there, to trade their lands for Naples or Sicily. I guess Naples would have been most fitting for Lorraine, since the house of Lorraine had inherited the claim Valois-Anjou had on the Neapolitan throne.

Well, witha POD in 1682, Josef I could survive, could have male heirs; his brother, Leopold, could survive, have male heirs; Karl VI could survive, leave male heirs; Maria Antonia of Bavaria could leave a surviving son, so I don't think there's much set in stone for the Habsburgs except for Josef I being a horndog and probably catching syphilis - whether his wifey gives him a male heir before she gets it from him is another story

That was my point too. I would say it is not too much of a stretch to keep everything as OTL (with the only exception of the husband for Anne Marie de Medici and her children) until the peace of Utrecht (we would assume that the WSS is not changed by the Pod since Tuscany and Modena stayed out of it). Afterwards there should be some major changes, in particular if Philip V does not marry Elisabetta Farnese.

The claim on Naples should not be anymore viable, since the peace of Utrecht has assigned the kingdom to the Habsburg. There might be a possibility to install Francis of Lorraine on the throne of Naples and Sicily so that Lorraine goes to France (which would be an important acquisition for Austria), but I think that should be compensated by the State of Principals (to Tuscany) and Parma to Modena (Piacenza might be a welcome acquisition for Savoy). All this assume that Charles VI has only daughters, though

The question is if Felipe V doesn't marry Elisabetta Farnese who does he marry? One of the Austrian archduchesses (Maria Magdalene) proposed for him? An Orléans' cousin? Somebody else? Maybe Francesco II's daughter, since Modena tended to be rather pro-French?

As to Karl VI being the last Habsburg standing, see my response to Jan.

Lorraine was considered for this during the same time Savoy was, in the negotiations France and England-Scotland had about the various partition treaties, before the actual war of the Spanish Succession. The duke of Lorraine & Bar, due the constant threat posed by France (the duchies were occupied by France at various times) might be much more inclined to agree to such a deal. This is all before the eventual treaty of Utrecht and would have been offered to duke Leopold (Joseph) the father of Francis Stephen and would have had nothing to do with the OTL Lorraine Tuscany exchange.
If the choice would be between Naples or Sicily, then IMO Naples would be more fitting given that they had held that title in pretence since the late 15th century. Naples and Sicily would be very generous.

Savoy wasn't interested in giving up Savoy proper and/or Piedmont in exchange for Naples and/or Sicily, but I doubt they would have opposed the acquisation of Naples and/or Sicily in addition to the Savoy and Piedmont, even though their main ambition was Milan.

I once thought about a kind of title carousel, if Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria survives, I now realize wasn't that probable:

I realize the tricky bit would have been, how to get France and Austria agreeing with this. Well obviously the ended up or were forced to agree, that none of them would get the Italian possessions.

Didn't both the partition treaties say that Naples would pass to the dauphin (d.1711) then become a secundogeniture to the French crown, and Léopold would be compensated for the loss of Lorraine with the duchy of Milan?

I'd be very interested in hearing about your title carousel thought. But hey, the fact of the matter remains that Austria could decide to keep Bavaria (no Denain, perhaps?) and then the Wittelsbachs need to be given land somewhere. And where better than in Italy? The question is simply what and where.
 
Eventually yes, Savoy and Lorraine were considered before the final agreements between France and England-Scotland. France may still have desired it afterwards though.

Austria keeping Bavaria is highly likely to upset the other German Princes, whereas under the scenario of my previous post that the Bavarian house of Wittelsbach gets the throne of Spain in the person of Joseph Ferdinand (so they are compensated with Spain), Austria could do the next best thing. If they can't keep it, the ones with the best claim on the territory would be the Palatinate branch of the house of Wittelsbach.
Moreover in my proposals of title exchanges in my previous post, France only gets Lorraine & Bar and to balance it out Austria only gets the Spanish Netherlands. However in the same time it turns now Wittelsbach Spain down a notch and divides Italy into medium powers (Naples-Sicily under the house of Lorraine and Sardinia-Savoy-Milan under the house of Savoy).

Austria keeping or attempting to keep Bavaria would only be possible, if the Spain is inherited by a Wittelsbach or a Bourbon, in that case the Bavarian Wittelsbachs would most likely be given compensation somewhere in Italy. If a Habsburg inherits Spain, then this will be a definite no go. However that wouldn't change the internal opposition against this in the Empire.

In the OTL treaty of The Hague, Joseph Ferdinand gets Spain and the Colonies, the Dauphin would get Naples, Sicily and the state of Presidi (in Tuscany), which would become a secundogeniture. Archduke Charles would get the Spanish Netherlands and the duke of Lorraine & Bar was to cede his duchies to the Dauphin in exchange for the duchy of Milan, Lorraine & Bar would eventually pass to France.
Thing is neither Spain nor Austria or Savoy and Lorraine for that matter were consulted. Savoy with the 3rd best claim after France and Austria would want something; Austria would feel, that they were sold short with only the Spanish Netherlands; and Spain wanted to keep their Empire together. There was no way, this or any other of the Partition treaties would just be implemented without any conflict.
 
The POD of 1682 does not affect a lot the balance of Power in Europe: its effects would mostly be felt in Modena and Tuscany. Even the issue of the succession to the grand-ducal throne of Tuscany will come to the fore only after 1713 (when Cosimo III started to flap around in search of a solution): in 1682 there are two male heirs available in Florence, and it is very difficult to foresee that both of them will be unable to produce a heir. Tuscany becomes a bargaining chip only after the war of the Quadruple Alliance, and the scarcely satisfactory terms of the treaty of the Hague.

Savoy, Lorraine, Bavaria, Tuscany and so on are not major league players: they can try to play the Powers against each other, but ultimately they will have to be satisfied with what is awarded to them (the candidacy of the Bavarian Elector to the throne of Spain was not really based on the force of his dynastic claim - or the weight of Bavaria in the European Great Game - but rather as a compromise. The duke of Savoy would have been as good a candidate, but the position of his lands as a buffer to a French expansion in Italy made his candidacy weaker).

I don't believe it is possible to satisfy the four Powers entirely, and as a matter of fact OTL proved just that, but it is undeniable that they will have first claim in the division of the spoils.

Elisabetta Farnese is an attractive potential bride since she is the heiress to Parma and Piacenza, and has also a reasonable claim on Tuscany, if the main line goes extinct. It is obvious why she was chosen by Philip V and as I said before there must be a reason for him to choose otherwise: an Austrian or a French princess would not bring the same potential benefits. Austria might oppose what is an obvious gambit to re-instate a Spanish presence in northern Italy: when I suggested a possible marriage between her and Francesco III was because Austria might see this as a way to woo Modena and Tuscany away from a Bourbon alliance. Another thing to consider is that the children coming from the second marriage of Philip V would not inherit in Spain. This makes a marital alliance less attractive for the major European houses.

Finally I am a bit skeptic on the interest of France, Spain and Austria in setting up medium-sized states in Italy: the fragmentation of the peninsula was allowing all of them to play their games there.
 
I was under the impression that once Felipe became king of Spain, all his kids would possess equal succession rights (with the usual boys taking precedence over girls, 1st marriage over 2nd). Or do you mean in a situation where he DOESN'T inherit Spain? Which still makes no sense, since the claim came through him, not his wife, the only persons with a better claim than him were his father and older brother.
 
(...)

Savoy, Lorraine, Bavaria, Tuscany and so on are not major league players: they can try to play the Powers against each other, but ultimately they will have to be satisfied with what is awarded to them (the candidacy of the Bavarian Elector to the throne of Spain was not really based on the force of his dynastic claim - or the weight of Bavaria in the European Great Game - but rather as a compromise. The duke of Savoy would have been as good a candidate, but the position of his lands as a buffer to a French expansion in Italy made his candidacy weaker).

I don't believe it is possible to satisfy the four Powers entirely, and as a matter of fact OTL proved just that, but it is undeniable that they will have first claim in the division of the spoils.
(...)

Hence why France, Austria and to a (much) lesser degree Savoy will want some form of compensation, if the Bavarian house of Wittelsbach inherits Spain, and France and Austria are in a position to leverage Bavaria into such concessions.
In the OTL partition treaty it's envisioned that the Dauphin gets Naples, Sicily, Presidi and Lorraine & Bar, whereas Austria would only get the Spanish Netherlands, IMHO Austria would at least also want Milan, which was also coveted by Savoy.

Lorraine wasn't a major player, but it was in the position, that France wanted their lands and so could be part of a territorial swap. The ruler of Lorraine would also be easier to persuade.
Without a compromise candidate 3rd parties, like what eventually happened IOTL, would end up with less. With one side getting the main price, their rival will also want more in compensation.

Any I already wrote, that setting up Sardinia-Savoy-Milan and Naples & Sicily under the house of Lorraine wouldn't be too likely. France and Austria will probably need to go to war for it with Spain, and if they have to do so, they will want a bigger reward. France at a minimum Naples, Sicily and Presidi, Austria would at least want Milan and the Spanish Netherlands. France might be willing to scrap the Lorraine & Bar deal.

Now that I think about, my scenario might work, in case of an Austrian defeat. So Spain and the colonies end up as a Bourbon secundogeniture, Lorraine & Bar could go to the Dauphin. Austria only gets the Spanish Netherlands. Savoy might have been able to actually win Milan mostly on their own as a French ally. Naples, Sicily & Presidi are denied to the defeated Austrians, but the other Powers do not want the Bourbons placed on more thrones, so the house of Lorraine is a compromise candidate and Savoy is given Sardinia to get a crown like the house of Lorraine.

There aren't many scenarios, where French, Spanish or Austrian presence in Italy can be removed or minimized.
 
What I meant is that Elisabetta's children would not have a right to inherit in Spain.
Obviously this changed over the years, since his eldest son Louis I died 7 months after becoming king, without issue; the two middle sons (both named Philip) died young; his youngest son Ferdinand VI reigned for 13 years, but did not have children either.
In the end, Charles III (the eldest of his sons with Elisabetta) gained the crown of Spain, but had to renounce the crown of Naples (he had get that title after the war of Polish succession) in favour of his youngest son Ferdinand.
 
I guess the question is, can you combine Savoy with other states to create a true Prussia of the South? Such that it can seize Lombardy in 1745, as Frederick seizes Silesia?
 
I guess the question is, can you combine Savoy with other states to create a true Prussia of the South? Such that it can seize Lombardy in 1745, as Frederick seizes Silesia?

What's your PoD? After the war of the Spanish Succession?

Not to mention the main advantage of my bleak Austrian scenario in my previous post, is that it will likely be a wake up call and the Austrian military might in fact be in a better shape than IOTL. Even IOTL Prince Eugene of Savoy advised Charles VI to stop seeking diplomatic recognition in exchange for too high concessions and instead focused on building up their military instead. Judging from the Napoleonic wars a century later, only France and Russia could field an army larger than Austria, so there was enough potential to have a big army. A humiliated Austria will mean a revanchist Austria, which will be very much interested in military reforms. If successful, Austria with the larger manpower, can make Brandenburg regret. Since the title king in Prussia was one of the many concessions made by Charles VI IOTL.
 
Would Austria be in the position to learn?
The mid of the 18th century is still far away from the levee en masse, it's still a time for small professional armies.
Austria lacks the cash flow of Mercantile Powers: where are they going to raise the cash for managing all these reforms (military reforms can only come after taxation has been reformed) and where are they going to find the will to reform? The 18th century was a century of reformist monarchs for Austria, but it was not enough after all to turn the tide.
Then there is the Austrian problem of having too many fronts to cover: the Ottomans in the Balkans, the troubles in Hungary, Russia on the eastern front, Prussia to the north and Bavaria to the west.
Even France - which was more populous, richer and developed but never managed to carry out a successful reform of her finances - proved to be unable to become hegemonic. Same as in France, the entrenched interests in Austria will oppose any sweeping reform.
 
It may not be done perfectly for sure, but being aware of the necessity things will have to change, can set some things in motion. I'm not saying Austria will go on a conquest spree, but Austria will have allies and even IOTL Prussia-Brandenburg took a huge gamble to go after Silesia. A slightly better Austria, which isn't as spread out (into Italy) as IOTL can get in a shape, that it can prevent Prussia from taking Silesia.
 
What I'm picking up is that unless Philippe's wife survives the disease that killed her at 26 (like her sister, aunt and grandmother, creepy) or she's already married, he's marrying La Farnese. But considering that OTL one of the other matches proposed for Elisabetta was with the Hereditary Prince of Modena (OTL Francesco III), might we see her married to Anna Maria and Francesco II's son? Or would that be a bridge too far and someone - whether Bourbon or Habsburg IDK - would object? I mean, history has had enough happy accidents where the throne of a country comes to someone out of the clouds - so no one would be hugely objecting if the marriage happens before 1711, but once it does, alt-Francesco III and Elisabetta's kids are heirs to Modena, Tuscany, Parma and Piacenza. How would a d'Este let's call it the kingdom of Etruria*-entity fare?

*Comes from an old TL I saw where the duchy of Mantua is united with Modena, Reggio & Guastalla into a grand duchy of Etruria by the prince de Condé when he inherits it as the nearest heir.
 
What I'm picking up is that unless Philippe's wife survives the disease that killed her at 26 (like her sister, aunt and grandmother, creepy) or she's already married, he's marrying La Farnese. But considering that OTL one of the other matches proposed for Elisabetta was with the Hereditary Prince of Modena (OTL Francesco III), might we see her married to Anna Maria and Francesco II's son? Or would that be a bridge too far and someone - whether Bourbon or Habsburg IDK - would object? I mean, history has had enough happy accidents where the throne of a country comes to someone out of the clouds - so no one would be hugely objecting if the marriage happens before 1711, but once it does, alt-Francesco III and Elisabetta's kids are heirs to Modena, Tuscany, Parma and Piacenza. How would a d'Este let's call it the kingdom of Etruria*-entity fare?

*Comes from an old TL I saw where the duchy of Mantua is united with Modena, Reggio & Guastalla into a grand duchy of Etruria by the prince de Condé when he inherits it as the nearest heir.
I would like very much to see a re-vitalized House of Este consolidate a state in Emilia and Tuscany: the plain south of the Po river is very productive, and the string of cities (Piacenza, Parma, Reggio and Modena leaving aside Bologna) have a long tradition of urbanization and were generally prosperous, barring the times of bad government and the periodic incursions of major powers; the same can be said of Tuscany, of course, and good relations (or even better political unity) between the two sides of the Appennine mountains would give a boost to commerce, using Leghorn as main port. Incidentally the two sides of the Appennine were the heartland of Canossa domains in the late 10th and 11th centuries. The house of Este was also the most ancient Italian dynasty (even older and with better credentials than the Savoy): the Este are descendants of the Obertenghi, who were Margraves (military and civilian representativesof the HR emperor) of the Ligurian March (which included Lombardy and eastern Liguria from ca. 960 to the late 12th century), and took the family name from the castle of Este in Veneto which became more important with the establishment of commune in Milan and Genoa). A branch of the Este inherited the ducal throne of Bavaria (Welf IV, son of Alberto Azzo d'Este, Margrave of Milan), while the main Italian branch became lords of Ferrara, Reggio and Modena.

I do believe there is a possibility to establish this Este dominion in the first half of the 18th century, although it will require a significant amount of 20/20 hindsight and a moderate suspension of disbelief.

The two key players in this ATL would be Anne Marie Louise de' Medici (dowager duchess of Modena and Reggio) and cardinal Giulio Alberoni, prelate diplomat and politician, born in Piacenza in 1664 and who died in the same city in 1752, who was one of the shakers-and-movers of European politics between 1706 and 1720 and for a time was prime minister of Spain (and was also the instigator of the marriage between Elisabetta Farnese and Philip V of Spain, as well as of the Spanish attempts to reverse the agreements of the peace of Utrecht with the invasion of Sardinia and Sicily in 1717-18. ITTL card. Alberoni will still be a power to be reckoned with, although it may look like that his role as chief minister of the Este state will not favourably compare withhis OTL role at the court of Madrid: OTOH IOTL Alberoni was forced to take responsibility for the bungled Spanish attempt to reverse Utrecht (even if he was not the main culprit for the ill-advised venture) but it is to be hoped he might be able to avoid the difficulties of his OTL life post-1720.
Anne Marie will certainly like TTL much better than OTL: she will be able to have children and also to exert real political power, first as Regent for her underage son Francesco and later on as his most trusted advisor, and with a little luck she may be able not only to save her beloved Tuscany but alsoto see one (or both) of her sons on a throne.
Other key players (in the Italian context: the main players in Europe will stay the same as IOTL, at least for the first 15-20 years) will certainly be two popes (Innocent XII and Clement XI), the Este cardinal (Rinaldo, who IOTL renounced his cardinalate to become duke of Modena upon the death of his brother Francesco in 1695 but ITTL will remain a cardinal and will play a role in the Regency first and later as a support for his nephew Francesco III), Francesco Farnese, duke of Parma, his niece Elisabetta Farnese (who will not become queen of Spain, but hopefully will have some compensations) and the Savoyard Fox, Vittorio Amedeo II duke of Savoy).
My idea (which obviously needs to be fleshed up and researched) would start like this:
  • Anne Marie accepts to marry Francesco II of Modena in 1686, whose candidacy was supported by France and England. The emperor accepts, after having been promised half the dowry (300,000 ecus) granted by Cosimo III to his daughter. AML had been promised in marriage to Vittorio Amedeo of Savoy in 1683, but the agreement had been cancelled due to the opposition of the mother of the duke (a French princess) and of France. No better outcome had resulted from the talks with Spain (Charles II was looking for a new wife). [Both failures happened IOTL too; the difference is that ITTL AML accepts Francesco]
  • Francesco II of Modena dies in 1695 on schedule, but notwithstanding its short duration and the bad health of the duke the marriage is happy and blessed by 4 children (two sons, Francesco and Cosimo, and two daughters, Isabella and Maria). AML thrives, loved by the people of the duchy as well as close to her homeland and able to exert a beneficial influence on her father Cosimo (AML still influenced Cosimo even IOTL from her new home in the Palatinate, but it is quite obvious that ITTL she's much closer and the four grandchildren will also have a beneficial influence on the old grand-duke). Upon the death of Francesco II a council of Regency is formed (the heir, Francesco, is not yet 7 years old and the Regency will continue until major age, at 15): AML and cardinal Rinaldo d'Este dominate the council, and are quite able to cooperate well. Rinaldo moves from Rome to Modena, to better participate in the regency. In Parma Francesco Farnese is crowned duke as IOTL (both his father Ranuccio and his elder brother Odoardo die in 1694, within a few months of each other). In December 1695 FF decides to marry the widow of Odoardo, Dorotea Maria of Neuburg in order to be able to keep her dowry (Parma is in dire need of money), even if she's 9 years older than him, and adopts Elisabetta, his deceased brother only surviving daughter (Odoardo's son from Dorotea died very young in 1693). [all events at the ducal court of Parma are OTL]
  • the war of the League of Augsburg proceeds as per OTL, and ends inconclusively in 1697 with the peace of Rjswick. Parma, Modena and Tuscany are largely unaffected by the war (exception made for the continuous pressures that the emperor puts on his Italian fiefs to contribute to the war expenses). VA of Savoy participates on the side of the League as per OTL, and ends up with substantially good results (he gains the fortress of Pinerolo, but more importantly he gets to be known in European politics). VA is not considered a ruler who can be trusted: he's joined the anti-French League late, in 1690, and there have been fears that French troops might turn out in the duchies; then he agreed a peace with France on his own terms, and there is a potentially troublesome rumor that one of the terms of the peace is that France and Savoy will "act" to protect Italian neutrality against third parties.
  • 1696-1700: with the support of her brother-in-law card. Rinaldo, AML dedicates herself to improve the finances of the duchy, and the court enjoys a moderate renaissance. Liberal elements from Florence move to Modena to escape the bigot and oppressive grand-ducal court. Her brother Ferdinand, the heir to the grand-duchy is one of these, and AML is worried by the horrible news about her brother's marital life: the marriage to Violante of Bavaria has been a disaster, and the future does not promises anything better. Even more appalling are the rumors about the sexual preferences of Ferdinando (and of his younger brother Gian Gastone too). Thanks to the efforts of Rinaldo, relations with the Roman Curia are good, and also the relations with Parma are much improved. Rinaldo renews his old friendship with Alessandro Roncovieri, bishop of Borgo San Donino near Piacenza. In 1697 he meets (and is impressed) by a young cleric who is a protege of the bishop: Giulio Alberoni, who is becoming well known and respected at the ducal court in Parma. AML makes also a point to get to know young Elisabetta, who might turn out to be more than a pawn in the game of thrones: the duchess of Parma is quickly pushing 30s, there's be no news of pregnancies since her marriage to Francesco Farnese and she's also known as a dour and cold woman. Antonio, FF's brother and heir to the duchy, does not show any interest in politics, and even less interest in getting married. He's still young, but does not promise a lot. Elisabetta is often a guest at the court of Modena, and AML considers her options: Elisabetta is second in the succession line of Parma, and has also a potential claim on Tuscany through her grandmother. However dynastic considerations are not her only worry: the disasters of the war of Mantua happened just 70 years ago, and also during the last brush-up French and Imperial troops were passing through Parma and Modena territories, requisitioning foodstuff at gun point and forcing war contributions. Rinaldo shares her worry, and has started to send feelers to Rome to search for a solution which would protect the minor states in Italy.
  • 1700: pope Innocent XII dies on 27 September, and the new pope, Clement XI is chosen after two weeks of Conclave. The election was dominated by French prelates, and the king of France vetoed from the beginning the election of cardinal Galeazzo Marescotti, considered to be too hard to influence. Clement XI was made up of less stern stuff. There was another death that was much more momentous and had a much more significant impact on European history: Charles II of Spain died without direct heirs on 1st November 1700. While the death was not unexpected (the Powers had been trying for a long time to find an acceptable solution to the Spanish succession), the failures of diplomacy made a general war unavoidable: Charles II had always opposed a partitioning of the Spanish empire and had chosen as heir his grand-nephew Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria, but he had refused to accept the partition agreed by the Powers (treaty of The Hague, 1st October 1698). On 11th November 1698 Charles II declared that Joseph Ferdinand would be his sole heir, but JF died in February 1699, effectively annulling any previous agreement. There were other attempts to reach an agreement on a partition, but there was no way to convince Charles II to accept: in the end upon the advice of pope Innocent XII the king prepared a last will in favor of his grand-nephew Philippe of Anjou, naming him sole heir and only vetoing the union of the French and Spanish crown. The final version of the testament (prepared with the contribution of card. Giovanni Francesco Albani, who will become Clement XI in November 1700) was read in public on 2nd November 1700: the war of Spanish succession was ready to start.
 
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My idea (which obviously needs to be fleshed up and researched) would start like this:
  • Anne Marie accepts to marry Francesco II of Modena in 1686, whose candidacy was supported by France and England. The emperor accepts, after having been promised half the dowry (300,000 ecus) granted by Cosimo III to his daughter. AML had been promised in marriage to Vittorio Amedeo of Savoy in 1683, but the agreement had been cancelled due to the opposition of the mother of the duke (a French princess) and of France. No better outcome had resulted from the talks with Spain (Charles II was looking for a new wife). [Both failures happened IOTL too; the difference is that ITTL AML accepts Francesco]
  • Francesco II of Modena dies in 1795 on schedule, but notwithstanding its short duration and the bad health of the duke the marriage is happy and blessed by 4 children (two sons, Francesco and Cosimo, and two daughters, Isabella and Maria). AML thrives, loved by the people of the duchy as well as close to her homeland and able to exert a beneficial influence on her father Cosimo (AML still influenced Cosimo even IOTL from her new home in the Palatinate, but it is quite obvious that ITTL she's much closer and the four grandchildren will also have a beneficial influence on the old grand-duke). Upon the death of Francesco II a council of Regency is formed (the heir, Francesco, is not yet 7 years old and the Regency will continue until major age, at 15): AML and cardinal Rinaldo Farnese dominate the council, and are quite able to cooperate well. Rinaldo moves from Rome to Modena, to better participate in the regency. In Parma Francesco Farnese is crowned duke as IOTL (both his father Ranuccio and his elder brother Odoardo die in 1694, within a few months of each other). In December 1695 FF decides to marry the widow of Odoardo, Dorotea Maria of Neuburg in order to be able to keep her dowry (Parma is in dire need of money), even if she's 9 years older than him, and adopts Elisabetta, his deceased brother only surviving daughter (Odoardo's son from Dorotea died very young in 1693). [all events at the ducal court of Parma are OTL]
  • the war of the League of Augsburg proceeds as per OTL, and ends inconclusively in 1697 with the peace of Rjswick. Parma, Modena and Tuscany are largely unaffected by the war (exception made for the continuous pressures that the emperor puts on his Italian fiefs to contribute to the war expenses). VA of Savoy participates on the side of the League as per OTL, and ends up with substantially good results (he gains the fortress of Pinerolo, but more importantly he gets to be known in European politics). VA is not considered a ruler who can be trusted: he's joined the anti-French League late, in 1690, and there have been fears that French troops might turn out in the duchies; then he agreed a peace with France on his own terms, and there is a potentially troublesome rumor that one of the terms of the peace is that France and Savoy will "act" to protect Italian neutrality against third parties.
  • 1696-1700: with the support of her brother-in-law card. Ranuccio, AML dedicates herself to improve the finances of the duchy, and the court enjoys a moderate renaissance. Liberal elements from Florence move to Modena to escape the bigot and oppressive grand-ducal court. Her brother Ferdinand, the heir to the grand-duchy is one of these, and AML is worried by the horrible news about her brother's marital life: the marriage to Violante of Bavaria has been a disaster, and the future does not promises anything better. Even more appalling are the rumors about the sexual preferences of Ferdinando (and of his younger brother Gian Gastone too). Thanks to the efforts of Rinaldo, relations with the Roman Curia are good, and also the relations with Parma are much improved. Rinaldo renews his old friendship with Alessandro Roncovieri, bishop of Borgo San Donino near Piacenza. In 1697 he meets (and is impressed) by a young cleric who is a protege of the bishop: Giulio Alberoni, who is becoming well known and respected at the ducal court in Parma. AML makes also a point to get to know young Elisabetta, who might turn out to be more than a pawn in the game of thrones: the duchess of Parma is quickly pushing 30s, there's be no news of pregnancies since her marriage to Francesco Farnese and she's also known as a dour and cold woman. Antonio, FF's brother and heir to the duchy, does not show any interest in politics, and even less interest in getting married. He's still young, but does not promise a lot. Elisabetta is often a guest at the court of Modena, and AML considers her options: Elisabetta is second in the succession line of Parma, and has also a potential claim on Tuscany through her grandmother. However dynastic considerations are not her only worry: the disasters of the war of Mantua happened just 70 years ago, and also during the last brush-up French and Imperial troops were passing through Parma and Modena territories, requisitioning foodstuff at gun point and forcing war contributions. Rinaldo shares her worry, and has started to send feelers to Rome to search for a solution which would protect the minor states in Italy.
  • 1700: pope Innocent XII dies on 27 September, and the new pope, Clement XI is chosen after two weeks of Conclave. The election was dominated by French prelates, and the king of France vetoed from the beginning the election of cardinal Galeazzo Marescotti, considered to be too hard to influence. Clement XI was made up of less stern stuff. There was another death that was much more momentous and had a much more significant impact on European history: Charles II of Spain died without direct heirs on 1st November 1700. While the death was not unexpected (the Powers had been trying for a long time to find an acceptable solution to the Spanish succession), the failures of diplomacy made a general war unavoidable: Charles II had always opposed a partitioning of the Spanish empire and had chosen as heir his grand-nephew Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria, but he had refused to accept the partition agreed by the Powers (treaty of The Hague, 1st October 1698). On 11th November 1698 Charles II declared that Joseph Ferdinand would be his sole heir, but JF died in February 1699, effectively annulling any previous agreement. There were other attempts to reach an agreement on a partition, but there was no way to convince Charles II to accept: in the end upon the advice of pope Innocent XII the king prepared a last will in favor of his grand-nephew Philippe of Anjou, naming him sole heir and only vetoing the union of the French and Spanish crown. The final version of the testament (prepared with the contribution of card. Giovanni Francesco Albani) was read in public on 2nd November 1700: the war of Spanish succession was ready to start.

The marriage lasted a hundred and nine years, some really bad health:p

But that aside, it's a good start. Would've been interesting if Marescotti had been elected, if only to see what would've happened if the pope wasn't held on a Parisian leash.

I wonder how Austria & Savoy, not to mention the Bourbon states will start looking at this monolith emerging in their midst...
 
There were plans afoot in the 1680s to marry Vittorio Amedeo II of Savoy to Anna Maria Luisa of Savoy. Likewise, in the following generation there were plans to marry Vittorio Amadeo, Prince of Piedmont, to Isabel Farnese. Either marriage, had it produced children, would've seen Savoy acquire either the duchy of Parma or the grand duchy of Tuscany.

Now for the WI: Anna Maria Luisa gets married to the Savoyard duke, and produces a couple kids, including a son. That son, let's call him Vittorio Emanuele, Prince of Piedmont, marries an alt-Isabel Farnese who is likewise heiress to the duchy of Parma.

Admittedly, this needs a rather strict butterfly net to keep Anna Maria Luisa/Isabel as the sole heiress to their domains - (or maybe not, IDK), but how would this change 18th century politics?

OTL, when the Savoys united Italy by conquest in the 19th century, they found themselves sort of on the outs with the Bourbons and the Habsburgs for deposing relatives ruling in Florence, Parma, Modena and Naples. Here, the Savoys are simply emulating those families by arranging strategic marriages that end up putting a large portion of Italy under the Savoyard flag. Any thoughts?

Jonas if your interested in an earlier unification of Italy, I recommend my Reborn Roman Kingdom timeline, as it follows a combined Papal States/Savoyard unification of Italy and subsequent Empire building.
 
The marriage lasted a hundred and nine years, some really bad health:p

But that aside, it's a good start. Would've been interesting if Marescotti had been elected, if only to see what would've happened if the pope wasn't held on a Parisian leash.

I wonder how Austria & Savoy, not to mention the Bourbon states will start looking at this monolith emerging in their midst...

I had checked most of the dates (there were even a couple of 19xx) but missed the 1795. I'll correct it, together with other typos.
The other thing I forgot to add is that Card. Albani is the one and same who was elected pope and choose the name of Clement XI on 23 November 1700. He was in Madrid at the time the last will of Charles II was drafted, and contributed to write it since he was a consummated diplomat (as a lot of the upper levels of the Roman Church were): I am not suggesting he proposed the clause about the perpetual separation between the crowns of France and Spain, but I'd not be surprised he'd been instrumental in its wording.
In the end I'm not really unhappy with the election of Albani: he may have been a weak reed, but had also a strong instinct for survival: replacing him with Marescotti, a notorious ultra-conservative and supported by the intransigent Zelanti faction of the Curia might have been a recipe for disaster. Since the time of the sack of Rome under Charles V the papacy had been mostly under the thumb of Spain and France: no surprise to have the election of a nominally pro-French pope and anyway Clement XI had very clear the military weakness of his states. IOTL he tried to arrange a League of Armed Neutrality among the Italian States, but with no luck: when the Imperials entered the Papal States and the Duchies he protested but never put attempted a military resistance, which would have been doomed anyway, and very soon aligned with Imperial interests. Maybe ITTL a League of Armed Neutrality can be arranged given the better diplomatic and personal relations of Parma, Modena and Florence: this may not be enough to stop the troops of Eugene of Savoy when he marches to conquer Naples, but the League might be in a better negotiating position, and possibly even agree on terms for a co-belligerence against the Franco-Spanish avoiding depredations and occupation of fortresses and gaining some territorial benefits at the end of the war.

The formation of a medium-sized state in Italy might not be in the interest of France and Spain and certainly is not in the interest of Austria (or even the papacy, at least in a medium-long term). OTOH the Maritime Powers would not be against the idea of a stronger state in Central Italy which might guarantee the flow of commerce through Leghorn (also remembering that even if there has been a dynastic change in Great Britain there are still family ties with the Este family and that IOTL the British were - up to a point - supporting Cosimo's attempts to have AML nominated as heir to the Tuscan throne). I would doubt that TTL war of Spanish Succession will end up in a more decisive way that it did IOTL: the peace treaty will be again some sort of a compromise forced upon the belligerents by exhaustion. If AML plays her cards well and Alberoni performs....
 
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