In discussing the reasons for the rather disappointing (for New Dealers) election results of 1942, Roger Daniels writes
"An understandable impatience with the lack of positive results in the war against the European Axis encouraged apathy. One factor that Roosevelt had hoped for for when he set the date of the North African invasion to take place by October 30 was a patriotic 'bounce,' but shipping difficulties delayed the landings from four days before the election to five days after it." https://books.google.com/books?id=PNCyCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA296
OK, let's say that it turns out to be possible to launch Torch a few days before the election. Let's ignore military effects (if any) and focus solely on its effect on the US elections. If it does help Democrats, even a little, maybe Glen Taylor (the left-wing "singing cowboy" who later became Henry Wallace's running mate) wins in Idaho, and Prentiss M. Brown defeats Homer Ferguson in Michigan. https://en.wikipedia.org/…/United_States_Senate_elections,_… But I think those are the only two Senate races that the Democrats lost narrowly enough in OTL for any Torch "bounce" to make the difference.
I'm trying to think what difference two additional Democrats would make, and my first thought was that maybe FDR's veto of the Smith-Connally Act would be sustained. But on looking it up, I see the veto was overridden 56-25--so even two more pro-labor votes wouldn't make a difference (54-27 is just enough to override). https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/78-1943/s61
Presumably a few close House races might also be affected. I would have to look up governorships, but the most important Republican victories there--by Warren in California, Stassen in Minnesota, Dewey in New York, etc.--were not narrow.
This is assuming there *will* be a slight boost for the Democrats, but is even that certain? Maybe there is some (not entirely unjustified!) cynicism about the timing of the invasion?...
"An understandable impatience with the lack of positive results in the war against the European Axis encouraged apathy. One factor that Roosevelt had hoped for for when he set the date of the North African invasion to take place by October 30 was a patriotic 'bounce,' but shipping difficulties delayed the landings from four days before the election to five days after it." https://books.google.com/books?id=PNCyCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA296
OK, let's say that it turns out to be possible to launch Torch a few days before the election. Let's ignore military effects (if any) and focus solely on its effect on the US elections. If it does help Democrats, even a little, maybe Glen Taylor (the left-wing "singing cowboy" who later became Henry Wallace's running mate) wins in Idaho, and Prentiss M. Brown defeats Homer Ferguson in Michigan. https://en.wikipedia.org/…/United_States_Senate_elections,_… But I think those are the only two Senate races that the Democrats lost narrowly enough in OTL for any Torch "bounce" to make the difference.
I'm trying to think what difference two additional Democrats would make, and my first thought was that maybe FDR's veto of the Smith-Connally Act would be sustained. But on looking it up, I see the veto was overridden 56-25--so even two more pro-labor votes wouldn't make a difference (54-27 is just enough to override). https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/78-1943/s61
Presumably a few close House races might also be affected. I would have to look up governorships, but the most important Republican victories there--by Warren in California, Stassen in Minnesota, Dewey in New York, etc.--were not narrow.
This is assuming there *will* be a slight boost for the Democrats, but is even that certain? Maybe there is some (not entirely unjustified!) cynicism about the timing of the invasion?...