An Earlier Mexican War of Independence?

I'm looking at how to bring about an earlier Mexican War of Independence, so far the three main scenarios that there seem to be are

  • The rumours that Bernardo Galvez was considering following the US and declare a republic along with his being killed for it are true and he avoids being poisoned
  • The Conspiracy of the Machetes isn't betrayed and succeeds in starting a revolution, covertly aided by Britain as part of the on-going Anglo-Spanish War
  • After the invasion of Spain and abdication of the King the coup against Agustín de Iturbide fails to capture him, a Cry of Dolores or similar occurs and things play out from there
Can anyone think of any other options? The Iturbide one is only a couple of years earlier so whilst his possibly being on the opposing side is interesting isn't much of an advancement, Galvez is potentially 24 years earlier but Spain won't have any major distractions from turning their full attention towards the rebels, so at the moment de la Portilla and the Conspiracy seem like the best bet. Thanks.
 
I'm looking at how to bring about an earlier Mexican War of Independence, so far the three main scenarios that there seem to be are

  • The rumours that Bernardo Galvez was considering following the US and declare a republic along with his being killed for it are true and he avoids being poisoned
  • The Conspiracy of the Machetes isn't betrayed and succeeds in starting a revolution, covertly aided by Britain as part of the on-going Anglo-Spanish War
  • After the invasion of Spain and abdication of the King the coup against Agustín de Iturbide fails to capture him, a Cry of Dolores or similar occurs and things play out from there
Can anyone think of any other options? The Iturbide one is only a couple of years earlier so whilst his possibly being on the opposing side is interesting isn't much of an advancement, Galvez is potentially 24 years earlier but Spain won't have any major distractions from turning their full attention towards the rebels, so at the moment de la Portilla and the Conspiracy seem like the best bet. Thanks.
This gives me some ideas... how about the three of them?

Galvez is alerted of a ploy to assasinate him by the Real Audiencia and is forced to flee, either to Northern Mexico, Louisiana or the newborn United States. From there, he denounces the "treason" of the Audiencia, sparking riots and disturbances in New Spain. Sort of a self-fullfiling prophecy.

As a result of this, the Conspiracy of the Machetes is not betrayed and it succeeds in escalating into more rioting, distabilizing the area while Spain is too busy with Revolutionary France, and maybe we get a few US-American filibusters causing trouble on Spanish Louisiana, or even Galves returning from his self-imposed exile, leading a troops of volunteers ready to avenge his dishonor!

Then we get an earlier Grito de Dolores and full-blown revolutionary upheaval as Allende, Hidalgo and Morelos enter the scene!
 
This gives me some ideas... how about the three of them?

Galvez is alerted of a ploy to assasinate him by the Real Audiencia and is forced to flee, either to Northern Mexico, Louisiana or the newborn United States. From there, he denounces the "treason" of the Audiencia, sparking riots and disturbances in New Spain. Sort of a self-fullfiling prophecy.

As a result of this, the Conspiracy of the Machetes is not betrayed and it succeeds in escalating into more rioting, distabilizing the area while Spain is too busy with Revolutionary France, and maybe we get a few US-American filibusters causing trouble on Spanish Louisiana, or even Galves returning from his self-imposed exile, leading a troops of volunteers ready to avenge his dishonor!

Then we get an earlier Grito de Dolores and full-blown revolutionary upheaval as Allende, Hidalgo and Morelos enter the scene!


Isn't that already a timeline?:confused:
 
Hhmm, in our timeline Galvez died thirteen years before the Conspiracy of the Machetes so I'm not really sure it would be possible to move it forward in any kind of recognisable manner rather than as a generic revolt. It also brings up the question of whether the conditions were right to support one at the time. If I attempt this I'd have to do a lot of reading on Mexican history, as such I'd generally like to keep it as if not simple then at least as unconvoluted as possible for the moment.


Isn't that already a timeline? :confused:
Is it? I had a look at the two or three major Mexico-based timelines but not in-depth. At the moment I'm just interested in if there were any other major potential opportunities I might have missed since as I mentioned to Gohan I don't know a massive amount about Spanish colonial and Mexican history. The Conspiracy is the currently favoured of the three since the war with Britain both helps limit Spain's actions somewhat and creates an outside source of support for the rebels.
 
Hhmm, in our timeline Galvez died thirteen years before the Conspiracy of the Machetes so I'm not really sure it would be possible to move it forward in any kind of recognisable manner rather than as a generic revolt. It also brings up the question of whether the conditions were right to support one at the time. If I attempt this I'd have to do a lot of reading on Mexican history, as such I'd generally like to keep it as if not simple then at least as unconvoluted as possible for the moment.



Is it? I had a look at the two or three major Mexico-based timelines but not in-depth. At the moment I'm just interested in if there were any other major potential opportunities I might have missed since as I mentioned to Gohan I don't know a massive amount about Spanish colonial and Mexican history. The Conspiracy is the currently favoured of the three since the war with Britain both helps limit Spain's actions somewhat and creates an outside source of support for the rebels.

It was unclear why he died. And there's a case to be made that he was poisoned.
 
What I've read says that Galvez was a capable ruler, very well liked, and rumored to have imperialistic designs. The crown very much desired a capable ruler, but Spanish colonial affairs already was taking on the caudillo war lord shape so amply personified by the years during and after the wars of independence. Galvez could have been poisoned, as rumored, with the consent of the crown, who feared his popularity, or he may have been poisoned by a rival war lord. or he may have just had an illness.

but, he had popularity. he had military prowess. he was a capable ruler. just what you're looking for in a takeover. now what you need is a reason for the populace to abandon the mother country. and if you can make it a reasonably bloodless coup, you have the makings for a country with promise. they have some shortcomings, but they have wealth. What killed the OTL Mexican revolution was a lot of bad leadership, a lot of bloodshed, and a lot of disruption to the economy. Give them a Brazil like transformation (in the sense of a non disrupted economy and a bloodless coup), and Mexico has a lot of potential.
 
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