An Earlier End to WWII and the 1944 Presidential Election

Suppose for a moment that things go better for the Western Allies with WWII ending roughly a year earlier with Japan surrendering in August or September of 1944. Now this is after the Democratic and Republican Party conventions so it would be the same Roosevelt vs. Dewey competition as in our timeline. Without an ongoing war to help justify a fourth term though how much better do people think Dewey might be able to do? Looking at the rough figures quite a few states were fairly close-run affairs, although those figures don't always tell the full story. Could Dewey find a path to victory or would he merely be able to make it more of a close, yet still lost, race?
 
I remember seeing a film clip in which FDR gave the State of the Union address while seated!

And he pulled it off, as perhaps only he could. I think he explained he had just returned from a trip (Yalta?), and he said, plus ten pounds of steel on my legs. And he said the whole thing so matter-of-factly and with such easy grace, that it didn't feel like a big deal.
 
There is a question of if Roosevelt would even run.
How guaranteed were nuclear weapons felt to be as war winners before their use? The USAAF had been running a continuous bombing campaign that had firebombed many Japanese cities to ash and IIRC were starting to run out of military targets. If they're seen as such then he might not run, if however there was still a feeling of possibly having to invade the Home Islands then I could see him run for the nomination again.
 
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