An Axis Greece?

Wait.
The historical invasion of Yugoslavia IOTL occurred after the Italian (failed) invasion of Greece (and was partly caused by it, arguably).
At that point, Albania was already under Italian occupation since Spring 1939. Even if you have a AH where this does not happen (not easy, Italy needed to "answer" German takeover of Prague with some bullish posture of her own, and Albania was actually the only place to do that a sufficiently little cost, plus, it was a long-standing objective of Italian expansionism) any Greek attempt to meddle there or, God forbid, take Albanian territory in Northern Epirus (which was and is majority Albanian anyway) would be seen with extreme prejudice in Rome.
Albania was quite explicitly supposed to be Italy's playground, all of it. If you are interested in an Axis Greece and Allied Italy, you could go that way (esp. if someone who is not Mussolini is in charge).
Historically, however, while Ciano was pro-British (or, more precisely, convinced that war with the British was a losing proposition, which ranks him as at least somewhat sane) he was also a very vocal advocate of war with Greece.
 
Okay. So, a vague outline of the scenario thus far, as it exists in my head:

The Preamble – or – Altogether, Elsewhere:

As pattersonautobody suggested – and ObsessedNuker amended – a longer France/Norway invasion convinces Hitler that an invasion of the Soviets, and a quick, decisive blow against Britain, are both a little impractical at this time.

Greece Stumbles, and is Caught:

In an ill-conceived moment of national fervour, Greece has become a pariah state, due to her annexation of part of Southern Albania, and the beginning of an initially inconclusive war with Turkey. Britain, under pressure from Turkey, must enact sanctions against her once friend, so as to avoid losing the Turkish buffer between Nazi Germany, and the Middle East.

Greek resentment at their perceived betrayal, a growing air of unease as Italy flexes her muscles, and a rapidly deteriorating war against Turkey, sees Greece swiftly sign an offer by Germany to join the Axis powers, in exchange for the loan of large amounts of land on the island of Corfu. Italy begrudgingly co-signs the ascendancy of Greece to the Axis Powers (Greece, in turn, offers to officially sell Italy several small, contested islands, for a meagre price).

A Phoenix in the Ashes:

Italy and Germany annex Yugoslavia as in OTT, and Greece (in violation of the peace treaty she signed, and with some light German support), attacks the already wounded Albania, and annexes the remainder of the nation. Albanian guerilla fighting will later see a tired and battered Greece hand over the occupation to the Italians, but for now, news of the victory invigorates a Greek populace rapidly tiring of war. Under the watchful eye of the Authorities, Greek women and girls kiss and shower the returning Greek soldiers with wreaths, and old men (veterans, perhaps, of more unsuccessful wars against Greece's neighbours, in the early 20th Century) offer to buy drinks for the Germans who are suddenly pouring through the Kingdom. For the first time since its independence from the Ottoman Empire, Greece is stretching its wings.

The Hellenic Empire Rises:

With the support of nearly a quarter of a million German soldiers, and the latest in airforce technology, Greece claws back the territory it had been retreating over, weeks before, and soon stands on the Turkish border once again. Germany declares war on Turkey two weeks after the first Luftwaffe bombs fall upon Turkish army positions. As the Italian Navy - buffed-out by an enormous Luftwaffe contingent - ties-up the British Royal Navy in the Mediterranean, Greece and Germany again swing at Turkey.

The Soviet Union, tiring of sweetened words from the Axis attachés when it demands an explanation, declares its own war on Turkey, and begins an invasion from the north. Panicked, and fighting a two-front war against two of the world's superpowers, Turkey begins to claw at itself – coups, in-fighting, and demonstrations in the streets, fill the headlines, as Greco/German forces reach Istanbul. Upon learning of Soviet troops landing all along its northern shores, the Turkish government signs a surrender document, reducing it to a rump state in Southern Anatolia – unofficially referred to as Konya Turkey, by the Allies. This effectively ends the Soviet invasion, but despite some minor concessions, ultimately sours Soviet/Axis relations (and becomes a contributing factor in the eventual war, to come).

On-top of it all, many Turkish troops out in Anatolia, and the Easternmost regions of the new Hellenic Empire continue to fight-on, or engage in banditry, meaning that Greece rules beyond Constantinople and the roads eastwards in name only. Of course – the newspapers at home mention none of this. Instead, the headlines sing the praises of a Greece which stands in no nation's shadow. A Greece worthy of Alexander.


(I mean - this is just off the top of my head, with your advice, and it says nothing of what's happening in Africa, and I'm assuming that Hitler will rapidly withdraw troops from Italy's campaign, to prepare for the inevitable declaration of war by or on the Soviet Union - where could this go next? I imagine an already over-stretched Greece grabbing at the Middle East, and Germany having to delay Barbarossa again, to bail them out, or something)

I dig it, though if an Axis Greece is invading Turkey, with direct German support, it's probably going to drive the Russians even further out of the Axis. The Soviets and the Nazi's both knew that, sooner or later, they were going to come to blows, and an Axis that controls the Mediterranean, and more importantly the Bosphorus, is an Axis that can bottle up the Soviets in the Black Sea and put them within striking distance of the Caucasus.

My guess is that, once Greece/Italy/Germany started making inroads into Turkey, the Soviets would discreetly make contact with the British and reach some kind of understanding.
 
only way Greece joins Axis is under extreme pressure similar to Romania, where monarch is exiled and new regime installed, also losing territory similar to Romania.

of course Germany is trying to recruit/has recruited Bulgaria so one reward they can give them is someone else's territory (Western Thrace, access to Med in this case)

(my speculation was no Axis Italy and reason was expanded role of USSR, of course you could have neutral Italy with the reason they just got cold feet.)

p.s. there were plenty of belligerent military officers in Bulgaria that Germany chose no to deal with/support in favor of Tsar Boris, probably because they wanted relative calm in Balkans.
 
It's worth mentioning that post-1913 Greece never claimed the territory of Vardar province/SSR Macedonia/post-Yugoslav Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; and post-1923 never claimed Turkish territory. After 1923, there was no appetite for war and Italy forced Metaxas' hand to resist, because there was no alternative. It wasn't just a matter of ideology.

Moreover, Metaxas was pragmatic. He was ideologically close to Mussolini and admired Hitler, but he knew very well that Greece's position forced to follow either a pro-British or a neutral foreign policy. He's not under any circumstances going to allow German troops in the country while the UK is still in the war and as long as it's still resisting successfully.

Another thing to consider; Metaxas wasn't the unchecked leader that Hitler was. He was made the Prime Minister by the King and he was in broad political understanding with him. The King was quite pro-British and if he sees such radical pro-German moves being made by Metaxas, he's not going to sit quiet. Metaxas would have to get rid of him, which is easier said than done, being fiercely royalist himself.
 
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