An Alternative Great War

One wonders how this will affect the general election in Britain in 1906 ? A successful strong stance by the Conservatives the previous year might well see them returned on a very different platform than Campbell-Bannerman's Liberals

If the UK is turning his back to Europe... Let's see... As far as it seems, Britain is isolated: Disliked by Russia, France and Germany. As the Colonial Secretary, Joseph Chamberlain, reasoned, with the Empire solidified as a single entity, Britain would automatically remain one of the world’s great powers, able to punch its weight in a world where the United States, Germany and Russia were expected to dominate. Crucial for this goal was to have preferential trade with the Empire, which necessitated tariffs on foreign imports into the Empire. In effect, Chamberlain was breaking the free trade consensus and pushing for imperial preference for the sake of what he saw as Britain’s Imperial destiny. Thus started the division among the Conservative Party.

However... if at this time Britain is as isolated as it seems, the Etente Cordiale gone, Germany as aggressive as it is, perhaps Chamberlain may have an advantage to prove his point. So Ritchie and Balfour may no be against him, this Chamberlain senior doesn't resigns nor the Duke of Devonshire. It could be possible to avoid the Conservative party split between free traders and tariff reformers? If they are united about the need of a strong Empire, the Liberal Party may have no chances. In front of the danger and with Chamberlain’s crusade addressing vast crowds and preaching the gospel of Empire and imperial preference in front of the Foreign threat, the Conservative may have a change, don't you think?

Provided, of course, that the British people does not put their stomachs before the Union Jack at the general election.
 
OK guys I've nearly finished the German section but I need some help. Politically Germany is very interesting in this period but the Election in 1912 has left a very awkward result. The National Liberals have split with Gustav Stresemann taking the more left Liberals who supported a socialist petition for a reformed constitution, similar to the Duma's, and he has united the other liberals. This has left the Reichstag thus:
SDP- 115
Zentrum (Political Catholics)- 84
Stresemann Liberals- 64
DKP (Conservatives)- 38
NL (National Liberals)- 27
Polen- 18
DRP (Conservative Nationalists)- 17
Freeminded Union- 14
Economy Party- 10
French and Alsatian regionalists- 9
Hanover regionalists- 5
Anti-Semites- 3
Farmers- 2
Others- 2
Danish Regionalists- 1

I don't know what happens now because the Stresemann Liberals and the Socialists both demand a new constitution and the regionalists support that, so there is no way the Kaiser can have a majority. But, the Kaiser does have a lot of power over this Reichstag. Can the Socialist/ Liberals do something to force the Kaiser to create a new constitution? The Kaiser appoints all the important roles right? Can he just ignore the Reichstag, and if he can and does what does that mean for the Reichstag?

Any help any of you can give would be hugely appreciated because then I can post the next section...

Thank you in advance.
 
The Reichstag controlled the Military Budget. That was its most important weapon in dealing with the Monarch. The Reichstag usually either was dissolved enough it passed it. Or it was used as its most vital bargaining chip.

He can theoretically ignore the Reichstag however the Public would get angrier and anger. Remember the Constitution was "Reform from Above" not below. Good Old Bismarck.
 
The Reichstag controlled the Military Budget. That was its most important weapon in dealing with the Monarch. The Reichstag usually either was dissolved enough it passed it. Or it was used as its most vital bargaining chip.

He can theoretically ignore the Reichstag however the Public would get angrier and anger. Remember the Constitution was "Reform from Above" not below. Good Old Bismarck.

Hmmmm, I see. So theoretically the socialists could ransom the military budget? "You can't have any money unless we get a new constitution." I think that would be considered unpatriotic, especially when you look at what the rights been saying about them... That could backfire. But if they keep demanding it without mentioning the budget, the voters could become disillusioned. Can the Kaiser call a new election any time?
 
Hmmmm, I see. So theoretically the socialists could ransom the military budget? "You can't have any money unless we get a new constitution." I think that would be considered unpatriotic, especially when you look at what the rights been saying about them... That could backfire. But if they keep demanding it without mentioning the budget, the voters could become disillusioned. Can the Kaiser call a new election any time?

Usually the Kaiser would just dissolve the Reichstag and then eventually the bill would get passed. Significantly however are Bismarck’s policies of State Socialism. Bismarck did enough in OTL to keep revolution from the door until the End of WW1. Usually there was a compromise between the Reichstag and the Chancellor.(appointed by the Kaiser)

The Key example here is Otto von Bismarck (1871-1890) a remarkable man. At the beginning of the Empire he worked with the National Liberal Party giving a little and thus having a majority. Later he worked with the Catholic Centre Party. A smart Chancellor had to give a little to the Majority party and could independently follow his own course on many issues. However the Chancellors after Bismarck were not those men.

Chancellor Von Caprivi saw a major turn in policy with the “new course” in which he appealed to The Social Democrats. 1890 – 1894

The second major figure in post Bismarck Imperial Germany is Prince Bernhard von Bülow (1900 to 1909) who managed to cover up some of the Kaisers worse Mistakes and keep a broad collation of political Parties in the Reichstag on side.
 
Usually the Kaiser would just dissolve the Reichstag and then eventually the bill would get passed. Significantly however are Bismarck’s policies of State Socialism. Bismarck did enough in OTL to keep revolution from the door until the End of WW1. Usually there was a compromise between the Reichstag and the Chancellor.(appointed by the Kaiser)

The Key example here is Otto von Bismarck (1871-1890) a remarkable man. At the beginning of the Empire he worked with the National Liberal Party giving a little and thus having a majority. Later he worked with the Catholic Centre Party. A smart Chancellor had to give a little to the Majority party and could independently follow his own course on many issues. However the Chancellors after Bismarck were not those men.

Chancellor Von Caprivi saw a major turn in policy with the “new course” in which he appealed to The Social Democrats. 1890 – 1894

The second major figure in post Bismarck Imperial Germany is Prince Bernhard von Bülow (1900 to 1909) who managed to cover up some of the Kaisers worse Mistakes and keep a broad collation of political Parties in the Reichstag on side.

Yes, I knew most of that. The problem with this election is the Stresemann Liberals and the socialists hold the majority in the Reichstag. Even if the Chancellor gets the Catholics NL and Conservatives and others on side, it still will not have enough to oppose the calls for a new constitution. I haven't known a case like this. In OTL the 1912 elections meant that the Progressives NL and Catholics could oppose the government if they chose to. But they left it to its own devices. There's very little chance of the Kaiser allowing a new constitution and I don't think the Reichstag has the power to demand one. So I don't really know what happens next.

This is largely academic since events elsewere will take control very shortly after. But since the Reichstag can control the military budget (and war credits) this could be a much bigger problem for the Kaiser.

Thanks for the help. Any ideas?
 
Germany
The Entente cordiale was signed between Britain and France shortly after the outbreak of hostilities between their two respective allies in order to avoid them been dragged into the conflict against each other. Needless to say Germany was not happy. The British Empire wielded serious clout and, in the eyes of many Germans, made conflict between them and France hazardous. The Kaiser was convinced that something had to be done to prevent the continuation of the alliance. He was encouraged to go to Tangier, where he made some controversial comments about an open door policy. This happened at the worst time possible for the French. The British press had just published the fact that France had financed half the Russo-Japanese war which had led to the deaths of several fishermen. Anti-French sentiment was caught up in the anti-Russian sentiment. It didn’t help that an independent Morocco was more favourable to the British. French premier Maurice Rouvier, was initially interested in a compromise solution but the French public were not. So he took a hard line, backed by the French foreign minister, Théophile Delcassé. The problem was Britain was reluctant to back them despite the Entente cordiale. It appeared Delcassé had failed in his attempt to win over the British. Germany and France began to mobilize but tensions finally cooled when Delcassé was forced to resign and a conference was called where an independent Morocco was guaranteed. This complete failure for France was perfect for Germany and the press were most favourable to the Kaiser for the rest of the year. But the two greatest things to come out of the crisis was; Britain’s alliance with France was broken in under a year, and Moroccan markets were more accessible to the Germans. German investment in Morocco increased after, but so too did British and French investments, both eager to prevent the Germans from becoming too powerful there.

The British severed ties with France and actually threatened war with them during the peace talks which Britain ensured were very favourable to the Japanese. The German Government hoped to capitalise on the Japanese’s success. Both they and Britain would sign trade agreements and both would struggle for Japan’s favour. The German possession of Tsingtau would be strengthened and improved and it’s no surprise that Germany played a large role in the building of the infrastructure of Korea and the Liaodong Peninsula. The Germans and Japanese make a lot of money in the next decade and Germany will attempt to gain full control over the Shandong peninsula with some success. However Germany is slightly peeved that Britain gets more profits in Taiwan and Sakhalin.

The French naval build-up prompted a response from Germany, which prompted a response from Britain. This naval race would cost all three nations millions. On the plus side, the improvements of their navies were substantial. For example, Submarines were now more common and advanced. Ships were upgraded and new ships were laid giving much income to the ship-building industries. Each nation took something different from the recent war in the Far East. Germany’s lesson was that offence hurts when defence is strong. It was a valuable lesson that was only truly realised after the Second SchlieffenPlan. The First Plan is not known in its entirety but basically Alfred von Schlieffen suggested that, in the case of a two front war, Russia is clearly the weaker, so France could be taken out swiftly without Russia causing too many problems if the primary assault was on France. It involved breaking the neutrality of the 3 Low Countries and an attack on Paris. But the plan was not approved. It was believed that breaking the neutrality of the Low Countries would produce an unnecessary risk. The plan was switched. The Second SchlieffenPlan instead called for an early victory against Russia and then a focus on France. The principle question for the Germans became, how much should Germany take from Russia. This question’s answer produced a spectrum of opinion.

This question also highlights the diverse opinion of the German establishment. Despite what many French and Central Eastern historians will later claim, there was no consensus on future developments. A clear example of this was the Kaiser’s reluctance to interfere in Russia during the revolution. It is now estimated about 45% of conservative politicians were deeply critical of the Kaiser’s decision. However, the Kaiser believed that Britain could be swayed back into France’s open arms and an adventure into Eastern Europe would compromise his colonial desires. In a letter to a close personal friend the Kaiser writes:
Currently Germany cannot possibly defend the colonies from the mighty British Navy, despite what certain fools in the Reichstag may think. In the future We must be ready to take advantage of a situation like this when it develops, but not at the expense of the empire…
consequently the naval build up for Germany included extensive naval ports been developed at a great expense. The Kaiser’s precious navy would cause a nasty headache for Britain and Germany as an unofficial and uneasy truce was attempted.

While the Kaiser favoured work developing the colonies, a new movement believed Germany’s future lie in the East. They called the strategy the Mitteleuropa Plan. It called for an economic block containing Germany, Austro Hungary, puppet/ client states severed off Russia, the Balkans, and the Ottomans. Many famously comment on the Berlin to Baghdad railway’s role as a precursor to this. It’s no secret that German investment along the track greatly improved the infrastructure and industries of the other states. For example, Austria Hungary would use the track as a spine from which new lines would be laid. As the Ottomans tried to stabilize themselves (more on this in the Ottoman section) Britain and Germany competed for influence. A new Great Game situation was averted largely thanks to the British Prime Minister who believed more profit could come from co-operation with Germany than confrontation. It’s from this that the sphere’s of influence of the Ottomans was de facto Split. One German commented that you could travel all the way to Mosul on German alone, but beyond that it was prudent to learn English. The speedy construction of the railway was mostly due to Russia having more important issues on its mind and Britain’s support. A German port on the Gulf coast would be the next step for Germany, but for now the German’s were content to use generic ports to link its Empire. Trade would florish.

In fact German investment improved almost everywhere except French, American and certain British areas. But nowhere did it improve more than (ironically) Russia. After the creation of the Duma, Russia was in a terrible state. The socialist/ liberal Duma had no qualms gaining help from any nation, this included the Germans. Many Entrepreneurs and Investors would travel to Finland, Poland, Ukraine and in particular the Byelorussian Areas. The industry in these areas quickly developed, as many new factories with German owners arrived and urbanisation became the trend. These German factories became an embarrassment for the right, who saw Germans (instead of Russians) making money from their citizens. However, no-one could question the improved conditions of the workers. This didn’t stop the right spreading nasty lies about them, and promising to give these factories to the Russian middle class, a move that could only start a war. Still, German investment rose five fold in five years. It is ironic that the Germans helped raise Russia back from the ashes after what happened later.

The Second SchlieffenPlan was interesting when finished in that it created the opportunity to offer peace several times before moving on to the next stage. The first part called for a joint Austro-German attack into Poland with the aim of capturing large numbers of troops. At this point, Schliefen suggested offering a peace deal if enough Russian troops were captured. Once the Russians accepted peace, Germany could crush the French forever. If the Russians were stubborn, part two of the plan called for a German push up the Baltic to Riga, while simultaneously a joint German/ Austro-Hungarian Army would march into the Ukraine, to deprive the Russians of the grain it so desperately needed. If this didn’t work, the third option was a push to the capital of St Petersburg and Moscow. Schlieffen said the last option was most unlikely and dangerous since what could rise from the complete destruction of order and stability would almost certainly be a threat. He believed the Russians would give in after the grain was cut off. The plan became official policy soon after its completion. The preparations were the movement of most troops to the Russian border, and the creation of a strong defensive line along the French border. The defensive border was created with the plan of shooting the French before they reached the lines, using fast shooting machine guns and heavy artillery. A brand new design was accepted by the military, the fastest releasing gun thus far. Even so, many questioned the plan. Offence was still seen as the best defence. When a French spy found the plan, he questioned the legitimacy of the document stating the Germans can’t be so foolish, the French will overwhelm the lines with numbers. A second consequence of the plan was the improvements in the Austro-Hungarian armies, since their involvement was essential. German military experts were sent to the country in order to bring them up to the German standard.

One of the big consequences of the successes of the Russian revolution was the massive boost it gave to the socialists. This was most pronounced in Germany which before the revolution had arguably the most advanced socialist movement at the time. For many, national pride was at stake as people worked overtime spreading the message. However, there was a further cause of the increased power of the left and liberals throughout Europe. It was coming from the Russian universities, which had become key during the Revolution in Russia. They formed leftist organisations (encouraged by the Duma) and spread information which ended up all over the world. The ability to be able to freely do this was a new experience to many and they wanted to make the most of it. Translated into German, French and English they came in the form of leaflets, pamphlets and books. There was much more co-operation between the German and Russian socialists during this period. It shouldn’t surprise you that the Socialists made huge gains in the Reichstag and there, made a strong demand for a new constitution based on the Russian one. They looked to the Liberals for support. The problem was the National Liberal party was very conservative and usually followed the Kaiser. But a number of Liberals agreed with the Socialists. They united behind Gustav Stresemann and actively supported the socialists. They were labelled traitors and expelled from the Party. But Stresemann’s Liberals were just powerful enough to force the Kaiser to take action and announce some reforms. This gave them a strong position in the 1912 elections as Stresemann united most of the smaller Liberal parties and officially untied the German Liberals into two camps; the Left Liberals and the Right Liberals. This would have consequences in the election.

Events never happen in isolation, as Newton said several hundred year before; “For every action, there is an equal but opposite reaction”. So with all the liberal/ leftist feelings in the German political scene, many looked at their success with fear. The conservatives saw the socialists as a threat to Germany herself, colluding with the Russians to over throw the Kaiser. The link the left had to the Russians was used to make them seem like the enemy. In other words, been conservative is patriotic. After the 1912 election this became even more pronounced. The Conservatives found themselves with fewer seats than ever before while the Socialists had the largest share. The National Liberals that the right could always rely on were in an even worse state because of the split. There was nothing the Kaiser could do. The Reichstag majority was completely dependant on Stresemann’s Liberals and they wanted a new constitution. They were threatening to undermine what Bismark had set up. How could Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg work with this? Everyday the papers reported how he’d ignored the Reichstag and the people were getting increasingly angry. He’d always tried to please everyone with his “diagonal” approach but the left were asking what he couldn’t give. The conservative response with nationalistic, patriotic feelings began to work. It’s also widely believed it was them who leaked the information claiming that Rosa Luxemburg, Karl Liebknecht, Hugo Haase and others had collaborated with Russian spies. This was known within the party to be false but the people believed it. They were arrested and locked away where they received what we would call torture to obtain confessions. The support for the party dropped and Bethmann-Hollweg saw his chance. Claiming that with all the SPD members locked away a new election should be called, he hoped to crush the leftist coalition. With Luxemburg’s message of expelling the reformist socialists from the SPD and Liebknecht’s anti-militarism been used by the right to great success, its not surprising that the socialists suffered huge setbacks. The conservatives created a population drunk on their own self importance with even greater pride and mistrust. The left were beginning to fracture and the differences were growing. However for now demonstrations were called for their release.

After the elections, the Kaiser has enough support to run the government how he wanted. The socialists lost a large number of seats but the underhand tactics were not taken well. In many ways it strengthened the socialists as much as weakened them. The socialists became even more organised and structured. But with several Reformists wanting to set up their own party, many thought the socialists would split like the Liberals making the German political scene even more complex. With the conservatives and Kaiser back in power any talk of a new constitution was put to rest and the Stresemann Liberals were now faced with a difficult decision. To stick with the socialists could risk them been linked with anti-patriotism and even worse traitors. Or they could denounce them and move back into the fold. In the end the decision was postponed. Why? That comes later.

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OK guys what do you think? Implausible? Criticism welcomed and encouraged.
 
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