An Alternative 1997 General Election

"I'm sincerely sorry"

ITV News - April 1st 1997

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Blair: "I've spoken to Gordon, and all is forgiven"

The Guardian - April 1st 1997

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Mr. Blair has rather unexpectedly been the centerpiece of this campaign so far. This morning, he and Gordon Brown are understood to have had a private conversation in which they discussed Brown's off-the-cuff insult of Blair. Relations between them are no doubt in jeopardy now, but they are making a valiant effort to conceal this. "All is forgiven, let's move on." said the Shadow Chancellor in a short interview with ITV.
 
ICM poll suggests that Labour lead has plummeted to 5%; MORI poll shows Brown's personal ratings at an all-time low

BBC News - April 3rd 1997

Changes on previous poll

Who do you intend to vote for - Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats or another party?

Labour - 39% (-4)
Conservatives - 34% (+2)
Liberal Democrats - 21% (+3)

Changes on previous poll

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with John Major's performance as Prime Minister?

Satisfied - 33% (nc)
Dissatisfied - 61% (-1)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Gordon Brown's performance as Labour leader?

Satisfied - 36% (-9)
Dissatisfied - 45% (+8)

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Paddy Ashdown's performance as Liberal Democrats leader?

Satisfied - 55% (+1)
Dissatisfied - 20% (-2)

Who would you prefer to see as Prime Minister?

Brown - 30% (-6)
Major - 29% (+1)
Ashdown - 22% (+2)

"What did I tell you?" says Skinner

The Times - April 4th 1997

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Labour has "yet again" shown itself to be incompetent and unfit for government - PM

Sky News - April 4th 1997

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All good fun - though I think for a Lib-Lab pact in 1997 you need an earlier POD than 'the election goes tits up', particularly considering Ashdown's two elections at the helm were their worst results ever. Will watch with interest though.
 

Thande

Donor
All good fun - though I think for a Lib-Lab pact in 1997 you need an earlier POD than 'the election goes tits up', particularly considering Ashdown's two elections at the helm were their worst results ever. Will watch with interest though.

I dunno. In OTL some people were predicting a small Labour majority that would require Lib Dem support until a matter of months before 1997, and not all of said people were Tory hacks.

I did like this interesting take on the whole Brown gaffe machine thing. Though the most Major can hope for is damage limitation. If the Tories end up in a significantly better position than OTL (say, 200 seats, keep some Scottish seats, fewer prominent figures scalped) Major might redouble his reputation as the man who keeps pulling it out of the bag against the initial polls after 1992 and the soapbox, and retire as an elder statesman who has significant influence over who will succeed him as Tory leader.
 

AndyC

Donor
NB - with the actual values for 1997 OTL election, on that calculator, we get Lab 396, Con 194, LD 34.


Actually, wrong figures : I used the UK percentage instead of the GB ones. On a swing from 1992, OTL percentages give Con 203, Lab 385, LD 36. Lab maj 119.
That's not taking into account seat changes since 1992.
 
I dunno. In OTL some people were predicting a small Labour majority that would require Lib Dem support until a matter of months before 1997, and not all of said people were Tory hacks.

I did like this interesting take on the whole Brown gaffe machine thing. Though the most Major can hope for is damage limitation. If the Tories end up in a significantly better position than OTL (say, 200 seats, keep some Scottish seats, fewer prominent figures scalped) Major might redouble his reputation as the man who keeps pulling it out of the bag against the initial polls after 1992 and the soapbox, and retire as an elder statesman who has significant influence over who will succeed him as Tory leader.

Aye, but the UK polling establishment was still a wreck post-1992, was it not? The way to prevent a small majority is to substantially damage Labour's image of being a viable alternative - arguably by stopping it from ever happening. If you want a hung parliament in 1997, elect John Prescott when Smith dies and get him into Number 10 'because he's not the other lot'!

As for Major, who would he have wanted to succeed him? A surviving Portillo seems the obvious answer in terms of received wisdom as to who would have been best, but was he in with The Grey Man?
 
Televised debate to take place one week before election day

BBC News - April 6th 1997

The BBC can confirm that it will be holding a televised party leaders' debate at the Royal Albert Hall in London on April 24th - just seven days before voters head to the polls. The participants will be Conservative leader John Major, Labour leader Gordon Brown and Liberal Democrats leader Paddy Ashdown. It will be broadcast live on BBC1 from 8:30PM until 10:00PM.

BNP qualifies for party election broadcast

The Daily Telegraph - April 7th 1997

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Having fielded the minimum of 50 candidates, the British National Party is now eligible for televised party election broadcasts.
 
One suspects the minimum would be a lot higher, precisely to keep the BNP out. But I can't wait for the sparks that will fly now!
 
Vote Liberal Democrat - The only truly progressive alternative

April 8th 1997

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Labour attempts to reconcile itself after a ghastly start to the campaign

The Daily Telegraph - April 9th 1997

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After an almost unprecedented series of gaffes, Gordon Brown and his party are attempting to 'refocus and regroup'. According to Labour insiders, more money 'than ever before' is going towards advertising and other get-out-the-vote measures.
 
Sir James Goldsmith to announce 'major endorsement from a Tory figure' tomorrow

The Times - April 10th 1997

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Return of the soapbox

The Independent - April 10th 1997

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John Major's soapbox is set to make a return for the final three weeks of this campaign. It's widely thought to have helped the Tories to their surprise 1992 election victory. Mr. Major will apparently tour every single one of the 50 most marginal seats before election day.
 
Enoch Powell: Vote Referendum - save Britain

Daily Mail - April 11th 1997

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Speaking today in Wolverhampton alongside Referendum Party leader Sir James Goldsmith, Mr. Powell, 84, said that Britain was being "clawed into a European superstate". He expressed his full support for the single-issue party.
 
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