An alternate WWI

[IIApexII]

This scenario could use some revision, but the basic premise is as follows:

Franz Ferdinand is not murdered in 1914. Instead, AH military spending has grown 5-10% from 1906-1911, and and continues to slowly grow from 1912-1916, after which the now "triple monarchy" (really a unified country consisting of Hungarian, Croatian, and Austrian parliaments) in which now emporer/king/whatever Franz Ferdinand has very limited power. Also they introduce a few armoured cars to the military, and have started getting some aircraft as well.

Russia completes its Great Program, and is looking like a big scary bear as usual, but the Czar is hanging on to power by the hair of his teeth, a little more so than usual.

France is lowering its military numbers a bit, but on the whole is still a force to be reckoned with.

Britain has been starting to lean more towards the Central Powers' side, though it will never join their side fully other than providing that sweet money. After all, Russia is looking scary with a big and better military, and balance of power is key.

Germany is industrializing and has abandoned the whole Schlieffen Plan, preferring a defensive plan on both sides of the border, aimed at taking Latvia and Poland and holding there, with most of the Rissian effort to be done by the Austrians.

Italy has almost officially switched over to the Entente as well.

War starts in the Balkans as always, due to Hungary wanting complete self-control or Serbia actually killing FF this time. Also the war is in 1917 sometime, thought I'd point that out.
Inspired by multiple other Alt History discussions

Any and all feedback is appreciated

 

[Fehérvári]

Franz Ferdinand is not murdered in 1914. Instead, AH military spending has grown 5-10% from 1906-1911, and and continues to slowly grow from 1912-1916, after which the now "triple monarchy" (really a unified country consisting of Hungarian, Croatian, and Austrian parliaments) in which now emporer/king/whatever Franz Ferdinand has very limited power. Also they introduce a few armoured cars to the military, and have started getting some aircraft as well.

The mad-absolutist Franz Ferdinand with reduced powers? I have heavy doubts about the viability of this sceniario.

 

[CountDVB]

The mad-absolutist Franz Ferdinand with reduced powers? I have heavy doubts about the viability of this sceniario.

He was the one that made the plans for the United States of Greater Austria though

 

[Deleted member 94680]

He was the one that made the plans for the United States of Greater Austria though

No, he wasn’t.

If anyone made plans it was Aurel Popovici who, we are told, was part of the “group surrounding Franz Ferdinand”. Seeing as though FF died before he came to power, no one knew what he really planned. I’ve read he was a proponent of Trialism as well. I’ve also seen he wanted to increase centralisation and assert the dominance of the Austrians. No one knows for sure.

 

[Bee]

For the uninitiated (me), what was the Russian Great Program?

In any case, Austria is not going to be up to the enhanced military task assigned to it, although it could at least manage to perform better against Serbia than it did in OTL 1914-15 (three failed invasions; finally succeeded in the winter of 1915-16 when Germany sent reinforcements and Bulgaria joined in).

There are two possible triggers identified in the original post, which could lead to different timelines: (i) Serbia is complicit in an assassination of Franz Ferdinand in 1917 (in which case AH is united) vs. (ii) Hungary tries to break with Austria (in which case the components of AH are at each others' throats and the neighbors pile in).

 

[Deleted member 94680]

For the uninitiated (me), what was the Russian Great Program?

Oft-mentioned programme for the modernisation and expansion of the Russian military and (importantly) railway network. Due to be completed sometime in 1917 IIRC and as such is listed as a cause of German belligerency due to it effectively being a countdown to the point that the Germans felt they would be unable to beat the Russians. The reviews and modernisation would make the Russian Army more effective and the improvements to the railways would allow swifter and more effective mobilisation.

 

[trajen777]

I think you have
1. Germany has 8 armies - 5 west vs French 5 in a tight border fight and the French are pounded at the border (as real time) by the 105 - 155 Howitzer plunging fire. The French have the excellent 75 which with its flat trajectory is the wrong gun for this war.
2. AH has 65 divisions vs 42.5 at the beginning of the war. AH has 60 - 96 guns per division vs its 40 at the beginning of the war. (they had mix of field guns and 105 Hwz. So they have enough forces to hold in the Alps and Serbia and give Russia a bloody nose. Germany also has 4 vs 1 armies in the East. So CP does very well vs Russia.
3. Flow of arms and food are not disrupted by blockade (does Germany blockade France and disrupt its flow of goods?)
4. In 14 Russians lose the 1st and 2nd armies and perhaps the 4th and 10th are defeated by Germany, AH holds it own and destroys Russian 5th army.
5. 1915 -- Poland and Riga taken, AH destroys Serbia (with Bulgaria). Romania and OE come in on CP side. French losses total over 1.5 mm (Germany lost a 1/3 the rate).
6. 1916 Germany 85 miles from St Petersberg, AH defeats Italy at border in the 12 Battle of Isonso. Italy withdraws from the war. Russia tottering.
7. 1917 German fleet have been shelling the French ports disrupting imports for 3 years. France bankrupt. GB is massively wealthy from selling everyone (mostly Germany). Russia collapses. France surrenders.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

This scenario could use some revision, but the basic premise is as follows:

Franz Ferdinand is not murdered in 1914. Instead, AH military spending has grown 5-10% from 1906-1911, and and continues to slowly grow from 1912-1916, after which the now "triple monarchy" (really a unified country consisting of Hungarian, Croatian, and Austrian parliaments) in which now emporer/king/whatever Franz Ferdinand has very limited power. Also they introduce a few armoured cars to the military, and have started getting some aircraft as well.

OK lets streamline this a bit:

Lets assume that Austrias military spending is increased to levels of the other "great powers" 1906-1916. This allows not only the expansion of the army, but more importantly the reequipping woith more modern tools - Armored, cars and planes - and navy - especially subs included. Between 1914-16 there is no way the Monarchy is reformed politically, so it does not matter for now. Its also important that A-H had a fast growing economy - maybe faster than any other great nation at the time.

Russia completes its Great Program, and is looking like a big scary bear as usual, but the Czar is hanging on to power by the hair of his teeth, a little more so than usual.

Russia is definitely in a better shape than OTL, BUT - how effective this programme really is remains to be determined.

France is lowering its military numbers a bit, but on the whole is still a force to be reckoned with.

I also think France is OTL probably too "militarized" Reducing the number of Soldiers relieves other portion of its economy, so might actuall strengthening France...

Britain has been starting to lean more towards the Central Powers' side, though it will never join their side fully other than providing that sweet money. After all, Russia is looking scary with a big and better military, and balance of power is key.

Even a (true) neutral or a Later British entry is definitely helping the CPs... maybe even enough for them to actually WIN

Germany is industrializing and has abandoned the whole Schlieffen Plan, preferring a defensive plan on both sides of the border, aimed at taking Latvia and Poland and holding there, with most of the Rissian effort to be done by the Austrians.

Industrializing - well IMHO Germany alredady is quite industrialized, but more is nice - No Schlieffen plan is maybe the key to sucess - if France is keeping its doctrine of "elan" the Germans will give thme probably abloody nose and actually gaining ground into france with limited offensives (assuming 5-5 armies - so numerical "parity") - that leaves roughly two more initial armies in the east - that will probably enough to offset any Russian positive developments (after all its only 2-3 years - given otls Russian performance that timespan does probably not change too much.

Italy has almost officially switched over to the Entente as well.

Nope - impossible - While Italy WANTS parts of Austria it will still be dependent on British coal - so while Britain remains in the neutral camp so will Italy (jumping onto the winners side later in the war probably) - especially if A-H/GE performs better . it needs more than time to make Italy actively opposing A-H...

War starts in the Balkans as always, due to Hungary wanting complete self-control or Serbia actually killing FF this time. Also the war is in 1917 sometime, thought I'd point that out.
Inspired by multiple other Alt History discussions

Any and all feedback is appreciated

Honestly I don't think Hungary will actively wanting to leave the Monarchy - it might lose too much by trying to secede. If FF gets stupid (which he might) them maybe , but 1917 would be to early for this...

And if FF is killed AFTER FJs death it remains undecided who rules in Vienna the hawks or the doves... Karl as sucessor is probably as weak as FJ was, but I think he would be leaning more towards the doves - and the killing of a ruling monarch would be putting even more pressure on serbia to agree to "bad" terms for the investigation...

A potential spark is maybe Poland - or Russia in General...

 

[IIApexII]

Thanks so much everyone for responding! Means a Lot.
Anywho, back to the scenario...

Nope - impossible - While Italy WANTS parts of Austria it will still be dependent on British coal - so while Britain remains in the neutral camp so will Italy (jumping onto the winners side later in the war probably) - especially if A-H/GE performs better . it needs more than time to make Italy actively opposing A-H...

If Austro-Hungary becomes Trialist with Hungary, Austria, and Croatia each with a crown, then the parts that the Italians laid claim to would have had more Italian influence, though not controlling them. This would reduce Italian tensions, but that raises the problem with Serbia.
Here's a little get scenario:
Let's say FF plans on making a Trialist nation. Hungary doesn't like that, but is somehow coerced to concede, and this reduces tension with Italy via the reason above. But Serbia is not liking this, because now all the Slavs under Croatia aren't available to Serbia as easily (one of the reasons for FF's OTL assassination), causing another attempted assassination, but most likely on other parliament members, possibly of Hungary's (in an effort to align Croatia with Serbia's desires).
This plan completely backfires and now there is an investigation planned, as in OTL. This probably will be an Archduke, but not a reigning one.

There are two possible triggers identified in the original post, which could lead to different timelines: (i) Serbia is complicit in an assassination of Franz Ferdinand in 1917 (in which case AH is united) vs. (ii) Hungary tries to break with Austria (in which case the components of AH are at each others' throats and the neighbors pile in).

I, personally, would rather a unified AH or AHC. Plus it doesn't have to be Serbia vs AH as always, maybe Serbia tries to get Bulgaria to join with them somehow, maybe some Turks did something to Bulgaria, and now Bulgaria is conflicted as to taking the Serbian or CP side, and this somehow sparks the war?
I don't know.

A potential spark is maybe Poland - or Russia in General...

That too

In any case, Austria is not going to be up to the enhanced military task assigned to it, although it could at least manage to perform better against Serbia than it did in OTL 1914-15 (three failed invasions; finally succeeded in the winter of 1915-16 when Germany sent reinforcements and Bulgaria joined in).

If AH becomes the AHC, along with increased defence spending, they could have a much better time. With their more infrastructure, more industry, less language barriers, better morale, more and better military tech than before, the AHC would have (if given a competent general) a very quick time in Serbia, and would do quite well as though. Russia 's great program increased infrastructure, readiness times, and artillery, the Russian army would have performed only marginally, if at all, better than the AHC after the first 1-3 weeks of war

That's all I can respond to atm, typing on a phone is heckin trash

 

[Bee]

If AH becomes the AHC, along with increased defence spending, they could have a much better time. With their more infrastructure, more industry, less language barriers, better morale, more and better military tech than before, the AHC would have (if given a competent general) a very quick time in Serbia, and would do quite well as though. Russia 's great program increased infrastructure, readiness times, and artillery, the Russian army would have performed only marginally, if at all, better than the AHC after the first 1-3 weeks of war

That's all I can respond to atm, typing on a phone is heckin trash

You might check out A Mad Catastrophe: The Outbreak of World War I and the Collapse of the Hapsburg Empire by Geoffrey Wawro. The title says it -- AH performed very badly and there was a lot to fix.

 

[IIApexII]

You might check out A Mad Catastrophe: The Outbreak of World War I and the Collapse of the Hapsburg Empire by Geoffrey Wawro. The title says it -- AH performed very badly and there was a lot to fix.

Looks like a good read, but it I can't afford it and I doubt my local library will have it. I shall try, nonetheless.

 

[IIApexII]

This is clearly an evolving scenario (as it was intended, I brought it here so it could be as realistic as possible, a great issue with my other alternate histories), so here is an "updated" scenario -

Central Powers:

Germany: It being 1917, Germany has already (since 1915, with minor revisions since) hanged out of the drastically outdated Schlieffen Plan, preferring a more defence-oriented policy on the western front, aimed at holding out assaults, then striking quickly to gain ground and eliminate strategic objectives, and repeat. They have started producing some armoured cars, for use on the more "mobile" eastern front. Reconnaissance aircraft is coming into greater production, as well.

Austro-Hungary: Austro-Hungary is now the Trialist Austro-Hungary-Croatia, with emperor Franz Ferdinand leading. Having taken over in 1913 (preferably earlier, earliest is 1906) after his uncle died (probably pneumonia or consumption or just the common cold, something like that), he immediately started political reforms , reducing magyarization in Hungary, and establishing the Croatian Kingdom as now part of the monarchy. Hungary does not like the competition with Croatia but after some leadership "re-assignments" (purges), Hungary is grudgingly complacent. Conrad is replaced after it is found out about him having an affair and being associated with some convicted scumbags (or some such scenario, possibly even the one assassinated that starts the war going, though I doubt it) and replaced by a more suitable (competent) general (if you guys can find one). They start producing armoured cars, aircraft , and do a minor increase in their navy (done almost entirely by the Austrians and Croats, which is fine with Hungary because that means more money is heading to their land military).

Italy: Relying heavily on British (who are leaning towards the CP) coal and still in a defensive treaty with the CP, Italy begins to sober up a bit to the AHC after Croatia starts to give Italy a better time with the whole issue of Italian claims, possibly even allowing a land purchase. They still harbour a bit of resentment towards AHC as Germany has preference to them, but it is much lessened.
They will remain neutral if the CP attacks first or declares war first, but join in against the Entente (although possibly waiting several months to a year beforehand) if the Entente attacks / declares war first.


Entente:

Russia: The Tsar is painfully slowly giving way to political reforms so as to not have a revolution on his hands, and is only a couple of months away for the estimated finish of the Great Program (though in actuality it is still about a year from completion). Their military has increased in mobility, firepower, mobilization times, and available infrastructure and industry. However, unbeknownst to the high -ups, there are still internal problems within their military; including unrest in the navy and deep organizational and structural issues in the army. Public discontent is about OTL 1915 levels.

France: France he just gotten rid of the 3-year service laws, opting for one that is only half the time. This open up jobs in other sectors, increasing industry, but isn't especially significant. Producing more guns as usual, but military is decreasing in overall size.

Serbia: Serbia is especially angry about the now Trialist AHC, and starts to increase military spending as the AHC is. Basically just OTL Serbia, but a bit more angsty towards the Central Powers.


Neutral:

Great Britain: The Brits start to give more support to the CP as Russia is looking as scary as ever with their reformed military, and the balance of power must be retained else a country invade the homeland. They begin to invest in Germany and the AHC, selling arms and lending money to all the CP members for a considerable profit. Never enter war fully, just be good friends to the CP. They also help Germany develop the first tanks for use on the Western Front in May/April 1918.
America is basically the same as Britain.

War starts when some Serbian rebels kill the new Croatian king's son (or Ferdinand Himself if the Croatian king is FF).
The war details themselves could be discussed now.


That took me a goddamn hour and a half to type on my phone, so y'all better appreciate me.