an alternate Twilight 2000 timeline

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I wrote this up for a friend of mine to make the Twilight 2000 RolePlaying Game more relevent in light of real history.

comments are welcome

This timeline was created as a background for a roleplaying situation similar to TW 2000, that also could be used as a background for a multiplayer game where players had the role of countries in the post war world. Some events were adjusted for playability, but overall I tried to be as accurate as I could to source materials I have read and my own judgements on the likely outcome.
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Revised Draft of the main timeline of events of the Twilight War 1990 - 1999

Major dates for the Twilight War
The road to war 1988-1994
Soviet Union realizes that a major economic collapse is inevitable and that the war in Afghanistan can no longer be sustained. Soviet Union withdraws from Afghanistan. This sets in motion events to come.

By 1989, the Soviet Union had repealed the Brezhnev Doctrine in favor of non-
intervention in the internal affairs of its Warsaw Pact allies, termed the Sinatra Doctrine (yes, that’s what it was really called) in a joking reference to the song "My Way". Poland, followed by Hungary, became the first Warsaw Pact state country to break free of Soviet domination. All of the other Warsaw Pact nations follow suit, including Bulgaria, Czechslovakia and after violent revolution, Rumania. The Berlin Wall coming down is the end result. In other news, the US invades Panama during Christmas to topple its criminal President. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 culminating in the Tiananmen Square Massacre occur in China. George H. W. Bush, had declared the Cold War over at the Malta Summit, a year later, the two former rivals were partners in the Gulf War against longtime Soviet ally Iraq

East Germany collapses and the Soviet Union gives Germany permission to unify.
Iraq invades Kuwait, setting in motion the Gulf War. Germany unifies in on Christmas Day 1990. Meanwhile, Yugoslavia begins its slide into fragmentation and war.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Georgia had already declared their independence from the USSR. In January 1991, there was an attempt to return Lithuania to the USSR by force. About a week later, there was a similar attempt to overthrow the legitimate Latvian authorities by local pro-USSR forces. There were continuing armed ethnic conflicts in Nagorny Karabakh and South Ossetia.

Russia declared its sovereignty on 12 June 1990 and thereafter limited the application of USSR laws, in particular the laws concerning finance and the economy, on Russian territory. The Supreme Soviet of the Russian SFSR adopted laws which contradicted the USSR laws (the so-called "war of laws").

In the unionwide referendum on March 17, 1991, boycotted by the Baltic states,
Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova, the majority of the residents of the rest of the republics expressed the desire to retain the renewed Soviet Union. Following negotiations, eight of the nine republics (except Ukraine) approved the New Union Treaty with some conditions. The Treaty would make the Soviet Union a federation of independent republics with a common president, foreign policy, and military. The Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan were to sign the Treaty in Moscow on August 20, 1991.

July 1991, the Warsaw Pact is formerly dissolved. This along with events regarding the New Union Treaty ts in motion a coup by pro-Soviet forces in the Soviet Union against Gorbachev.


August 1991
August 1991, Boris Yeltsin is gunned down along with hundreds of supporters by KGB Interior Ministry troops. The bulk of the Army officer corps remains Pro-Soviet as well. Gorbachev, already under arrest, is shot for treason. Valentin Sergeyevich Pavlov, the Soviet Prime Minister and the rest of the Politboro regain power, and remain in control of he KGB and Military. Soon after, Soviet forces move into the Baltic Republics and reestablish Soviet control

George H Bush is re-elected President of the United States for his second term as
concerns over the Soviet Union out-way Clintons’ charm. The Peace Dividend turns out to be an illusion, as the United States keeps its forces at Cold War levels.

Cuba and Vietnam remain Soviet client states, as does North Korea. In an
effort to save the economy, the Soviet Union gives up on Africa and its other efforts in the Third World. Yugoslavia is abandoned for now as well for the same reasons. However, the Soviet Union warns that it will not accept expansion of NATO into Poland or any other nation bordering the Soviet Union.

In December 1992, US and other UN forces acting under UN authority invade Somalia to end starvation there. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union vetoes efforts by the United States to deploy peacekeepers in Kurdish areas of Iraq, or to establish no – fly zones or further sanction Iraq. . The Soviet Union improves relations with Iraq and Syria and helps them to rearm.

Tensions increase between Vietnam and China over the Spratley Islands, which have substantial oil reserves. The Soviet Union assists Vietnam in developing a more effective navy and air force. This annoys China, which begins shifting military forces closer to Vietnam and the Soviet border. Meanwhile, fighting in the former Yugoslavia continues, and after the near destruction of a ranger company in Somalia, President Bush orders more US troops back in and a stronger military presence. Ethiopia improves ties with the United States. Anti-western Moslems form Al-Quada and start receiving covert Soviet assistance. One of its first acts is the bombing of the World Trade Center in February 1993. This sets in motion events that will doom the efforts to create the “New America” movement. Iraq slaughters tens of thousands of Kurds and Shi’ite Moslems while suppressing revolts. Tens of thousands flee to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. This causes problems in Turkey.

Tensions worsen in the South China Sea as Vietnam and China have several clashes that lead to full scale naval battles. This leads to border clashes between China and Vietnam along their border. UN efforts to mediate fail. Meanwhile, Al-Quada takes control of Sudan and Afghanistan. In the Soviet Union, KGB troops ruthlessly crush an independence movement in the Ukraine and several in Central Asia. The Czech Republic joins NATO, but Soviet threaten action if Hungary, Rumania or Poland does so. This worsens relations between the Soviet Union and NATO. Western arms sales to China increase. The US reduces its presence in Somalia, but retains control over the area, with the help of peacekeeping troops from Senegal, Fiji, Ireland, and Malayasia.

World War Three
A naval battle between Vietnamese and Chinese warships in the South China Sea results in the sinking of a Soviet frigate that was transiting the area by Chinese missiles. Fighting breaks out along the Soviet-Chinese border. An escalating crisis develops between China and the Soviet Union and both China and the Soviet Union partially mobilize and shift forces to face each other. The Soviet Union orders a full scale invasion to teach the Chinese a lesson. The initial objective is to occupy Sinkiang and Manchuria, break the Chinese Army, and humiliate China.

August 19, 1995
The Soviet Red Army launches a massive invasion of China. By December, the war is going badly for the Soviet Union as casualties are heavier then expected, and internal dissent is beginning to mount

August 1995 – September 1996
China fights the Soviet Union and the Republic of Vietnam in a massive conventional war.

October 1996
Seeing opportunity, the Poles, Czechs, Hungarians, Rumanians and Bulgarians seek admission into NATO and the European Union. The United States supports the Eastern Europeans in spite of Soviet threats.

November 1996 – January 1997
Soviet forces are sharply reduced in China and sent west. Third line and mobilization only units take over much of the burden of facing the Chinese, aside for a strategic reserve of first line forces to act as a fire brigade.

February 1997
The Second Korean War breaks out, and quickly draws in Japan, the United States, Britain, Australia and eventually Taiwan after North Korean submarines sink several Taiwan flagged merchant ships and a LPG carrier.

March 1997
With the United States firmly committed in East Asia, the Syrians and Iraqis invade Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Tensions in South Asia between India and Pakistan worsen after Islamic extremists begin a terror campaign in India. Extremists from Sudan step up a campaign in Egypt. The government of Algeria falls as Islamic extremists take power there and promptly ally themselves with Libya. The United States goes to full mobilization.

March – May 1997
With assistance from the US, the invasions of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and South Korea are repelled, but Soviet backing prevents the UN from ending those conflicts. US logistics are stretched severely.

June 1997
The Soviet Union issues an ultimatum to Czechslovakia, Poland, Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria demanding they withdraw their request to join the EU and NATO. All five of those nations refuse to so. Intelligence analysts in the West are mostly convinced that the Soviets will only bluster and cannot start a war while fighting the Chinese. They convince their political leaders of the same. The worst mistake since July 1914 is set in motion.

July 1997
Soviet forces invade Poland, Hungary, Rumania and Czechslovakia. Rumania is quickly overrun and its military destroyed, with only a few fleeing survivors escaping to Bulgaria. Soviet forces continue into Bulgaria. Meanwhile, NATO is divided over what action to take, but the US and British send their ground forces in Germany into Poland, while France sends its army into Czechslovakia. Full scale war between the Soviet Union and NATO begins by July 14. Greece refuses to get involved, and withdraws from NATO.

Libya and Algeria end up joining Syria and Iraq on the Soviet side, as does Serbia. The Austrians initially sit out the war, but join in with Italy and send forces in to support Slovenia and Croatia. Sweden remains neutral, but fighting rapidly spreads into Norway.. Massive battles are fought in the Carpathians, Danube Valley and plains of Poland. NATO naval forces take serious losses but manage to mostly destroy the Soviet Navy, and completely eliminate the Algerian, Libyan, and Syrian navies by early August. Israel enters the war when the US is attacked in Europe, while Egypt enters the war after Libya does. Egyptian forces invade both Libya and the Sudan. As part of its initial offensive, Soviet airborne and seaborne forces invade Alaska, and get major footholds, further stretching the US Army and Navy. Cuba hurriedly announces its neutrality and interns all Soviet forces in Cuba to show its good faith.

September 1997
Soviet and NATO forces are facing stalemate in Poland, Czechslovakia and Hungary, while Soviet forces are pressing hard into Turkey. Greece sides with the Soviet Union and Serbia and gets into combat in the former Yugoslavia, as well as the Aegean. Stalemate also exists in Alaska as the Soviet forces there are now cut off from most resupply, while the US is still struggling to get forces into that theater.

Meanwhile, the Chinese launch a massive offensive in Manchuria that inflicts staggering losses on Soviet third rate forces holding that front. At the same time, the North Koreans are collapsing and ROK and Allied forces are driving on Pyongyang and Wonson and threatening to drive further north and threaten Vladivostok.

German, Italian, and Spanish forces invade Algeria via friendly Tunisia, while Egyptian forces invade Libya. Libya is rapidly defeated as US and Egyptian forces are too much for the Libyans, but Algeria fights on. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan have gone to war, and Iran sends forces to help the Pakistanis.

A major NATO counteroffensive begins in the Barents Sea as the bulk of the US Atlantic Carrier force launches strikes on the Kola Pennisula, while Allied amphibious forces begin landing in northern Norway to cut off remaining Soviet forces in central Norway
This triggers the first use of tactical nuclear weapons as the Soviets panic.

This results in the release of tactical nuclear weapons in all naval theaters of war, but weapons use remains restricted to targets at sea initially.

October 1997
The Soviet Union, facing imminent collapse in China, with its Vietnamese and North Korean allies all but finished, and a Japanese invasion of the Kuriles resorts to full scale use of tactical nuclear weapons in China. This results in NATO using tactical nuclear weapons against Soviet naval facilities in the Black Sea, Pacific Coast, Kola Pennisula and the White Sea coast, and Soviet returning the favor against targets in Iceland, Gibraltar, southern Norway and Turkey. NATO launches a massive air campaign aimed at finishing off the Soviet Air Force (which has suffered tremendous damage already) and this in turn triggers Soviet use of tactical nuclear weapons and theater missiles equipped with nerve gas against NATO airfields in Poland, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Great Britain. NATO responds with tactical nuclear weapons of its own, and by the end of October neither side has significant air support in Europe as nearly all major airfields have been destroyed. Civilian casualties are also heavy because even though urban centers were not directly targeted, most airfields were close enough to urban areas to create sizeable civilian casualties from the use of nerve gas and nuclear blast and fallout. India meanwhile, has defeated the Pakistani / Iranian invasion and is driving deep into Pakistan.

November 1997
Tactical nuclear weapons continue to be used, and both NATO and Soviet armies see the bulk of their general and combat support units destroyed or seriously damaged. This slows down the tempo of fighting as shortages of fuel, ammunition and spares become critical problems. Damage to port facilities slow the arrival of forces from North America, while damage to major rail facilities do the same for Soviet reinforcements.

Desperate, the Soviet Union decides on an all out counterforce strike on the United States in order to prevent the United States from doing the same to its forces. Already, US warplanes are flying over Siberia and parts of European Russia at will, and inflicting staggering losses on Soviet interceptors that go up to meet them. Huge holes have been made in the Soviet air defense system, and it becomes clear that the Soviet Union is facing defeat.

November 26, 1997
The Soviet Union launches a massive nuclear strike against US missile fields, command facilities, nuclear submarine bases and bomber bases in North America. The US responds in kind after riding out the strike. Soviet missiles also fall on additional targets in Europe and Asia. Israel takes the opportunity to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, which leads to Iran joining Iraq against allied forces in the Middle East. At the same time, a dying North Korea launches strikes against South Korea and Japan, and a desperate Pakistan launches an all out nuclear counter force strike at India. India responds in kind with its remaining forces.

The Day After
December 1997
NATO and the Soviet Union agree to a nuclear cease fire, but conventional fighting continues but at a much lower level. Neither side has much left in the way of nuclear strike forces in any event.

Fighting between Pakistan and India continues, but at a low level as logistical support evaporates, and the homelands of both sides fall apart. South Korea finishes off North Korea and both it and Japan make peace with the Soviet Union. Vietnamese forces in South Vietnam rebel and create the Republic of South Vietnam, which gains the support of Taiwan. China falls apart, and Canton, which is centered around Canton/Hong Kong, declares its independence and makes peace with the Soviet Union. Swedish forces enter the war and secure Finland and NATO forces withdraw from Norway, which then makes peace with the Soviet Union. The war essentially ends in Scandinavia.

NATO forces, along with rebel Algerian military forces overthrow the extremist government in Algeria. Meanwhile, Greece and Turkey have fought to exhaustion, and the Italians and Austrians have saved Slovenia and Croatia but are exhausted as well.

January 1998 – August 1998
The Mexican government becomes noticeably socialist, as does the Venezuelan government after a coup succeeds. The Cubans see a way to rid themselves of unwanted Soviet forces and persuades Mexico to provide shipping to take them to their country. Cuba even throws in much of its obsolescent air force to sweeten the deal, and many armored vehicles. Cuba reaffirms its neutrality, and hopes that the United States forgets that they exist.

Conditions in North America, the Soviet Union and most of Europe are severe, as winter is harsher then normal, radioactive fallout is a serious problem and communications and power supplies have been severely damaged by the effects of EMP. War production in all three areas falls to a trickle, and many military units are diverted to disaster relief and civil action duties.

The situation on the US / Mexican border worsens as the Mexican economy is facing collapse and tens of thousands of Mexicans are still trying to move into the US, because conditions in much of the US are still better then the situation in Mexico, where a major drought has also begun.

July 1998
The Mexican Army, reinforced by Soviet forces formerly in Cuba, and some volunteer formations from Nicaruaga and Venezuela invade the United States. This draws off much of the US Army from its mop up campaign of Soviet forces in Alaska and from internal security duties. A front eventually stabilizes but the initial thrust manages to overrun much of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and southern California.

August 1998 – March 1999
Drought caused by cooler then usual climatic conditions and the “Year Without a Summer” that resulted from the nuclear strikes results in huge agricultural shortfalls in the Northern Hemisphere. By January, a major flu epidemic sweeps the world, killing staggering numbers of people weakened by exposure to radiation or who are undernourished. This leads to a further slide in anarchy in the nations still at war, and prevents any significant reinforcements or replacements from reaching the armies, which remain stalemated and reduced to occasional patrols and exchanges of fire. The remainder of NATO naval forces are mostly laid up as shortages of spares and the collapse of the economies of their homelands makes the hope of new spares a dream. Remaining air force units face the same fate.
May – December 1999
A second extremely cool spring and summer begins, but it is not a severe as the previous year. The Soviets pull out of Eastern Europe as revolts are sweeping Central Asia, the Ukraine and even parts of Russia itself. The US pulls its forces out of Europe and East Asia to deal with problems at home. A temporary cease fire develops into a more permanent one between the Soviet Union and NATO. NATO forces in Algeria are also withdrawn, although some are sent to Saudi Arabia to assist the Saudis in dealing with Iran as fighting continues in southern Iraq. Iran which is facing collapse, is forced to let Kurdistan gain its independence, as are the Turks, who are in similar trouble. The new Kurdish state includes much of northern Iraq, southeastern Turkey and parts of Iran. Remaining US forces are withdrawn from the Middle East, except for a few that remain in Israel.
Fall harvests are noticeably and dangerously under desirable levels in the North Hemisphere, but not as dangerously low as before. With the return of front line troops, North America and Russia manage to stabilize, as does much of Europe.

Present day (game start)
Situation January 2000
The war has ended with a cease fire between NATO and the Soviet Union. Tentative cease fires also exist in Alaska and the US Southwest, mainly because the US sees greater urgency in restoring order in the homeland first. Egypt remains in control of the Sudan and Libya. Israel occupies southern Lebanon, and parts of Syria, while Syria has collapsed into disorder. Iraq has completely collapsed, but Iranian and European/Arab forces continue to fight in Shiite areas of former Iraq, as well as in the Baghdad area.

Nearly 45% of the population of 1995 is now dead world wide, including billions who died in Third World nations of starvation, disease and civil disorder created by the collapse of the West in a war that they had no part of.
In 1993, after the Battle of Mogadishu, President Bush orders the heavy reinforcements to break the back of the warlords once and for all. The 3rd Marine Division arrives, and while UN Forces hold the base areas, it proceeds to crush the Warlords over the next few months. In 1995 it is replaced by the 1st Marine Division, which continues the mission of mopping up the remaining lawless elements and nation building. In March 1996, with the 2nd Korean War already in progress, and the invasion of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia by Soviet backed Iraq and Syria, the 1st Marine Division is hurriedly deployed to Southwest Asia. To replace it, the US sends the 16th Marine Expeditionary Brigade, built around the 24th Marine Regiment (Marine Reserve) and elements of the 4th Marine Division.

When the war escalates further, this force is strengthened to a division in size and becomes the 6th Marine Division, and tasked with the mission of holding the Horn of Africa, and conducts operations to support Egyptian operations in Sudan, and another element of it invades and takes Socutra Island (Yemen) which houses a major Soviet base. Its presence does allow Somalia to reconstitute itself as a nation state however, which manages to hold together even when the 6th Marine Division is eventually sent to the Southwest Asia in 1998 as the heavy toll of the war creates shortages of available troops and equipment.

As the Twilight War winds down in 1999 and 2000, Somalia has managed to retain a central government and is barely hanging on and is doing better then many other African nations.

Countdown to Armageddon
Nuclear war fighting during the Twilight War

The Soviets went into China convinced that they would not need nuclear weapons, but painfully aware that the Chinese had them. They also knew however that they had massive superiority in regards to that versus the Chinese. Nevertheless, the dispersed their bombers and moved their ballistic missile submariners (Boomers) to bastions in the White Sea and sent their Pacific Fleet boomers under the ice (across the Arctic) to the White Sea as well. A few were sent to into the Black Sea (secretly going through the Dardenelles assisted by Soviet Merchant shipping to hide their signatures) and a few remained at Soviet Pacific Fleet bases with orders to stay in harbor and fire from there if need be.

The US monitored all of this, and developed plans to deal with the Soviet Boomers if the time came. US superiority in data processing allowed and very careful covert work by US attack submarines managed to get the general location of the bulk of the Soviet Boomers and a plan was developed to use saturation attack by ICBMs to essentially carpet bomb the White Sea in the event of a nuclear exchange to sink the bulk of the Soviet boomers, with follow up attacks by carrier based aircraft, attack submarines and long range aircraft. This was considered highly risky, but the only alternative with any probability of success.

As the conventional war exploded across the globe, both sides were careful to avoid nuclear weapons, and also chemical weapons. The US policy of treating chemical weapons as a weapon of mass destruction subject to retaliation by US nuclear weapons made the Soviets extremely cautious, and thus chemical weapons use did not occur in theaters where US troops were present. No such restriction existed in China however, and the Soviets quickly resorted to chemical weapons early on. The Chinese used them as well, as much as they could, and also resorted to using stay behind and special operations troops to conduct limited biological warfare attacks (using anthrax spore mainly). This slowed down operations but the main impact was to essentially empty the war zones in China of civilians who either fled or died.

Nevertheless, the policies of the early 1990s, when tactical weapons had been pulled back to central storage areas or destroyed were reversed as the war became global, and by mid year both US and Soviet forces once again had tactical nuclear weapons available for immediate use.

In June 1996 however, the US Navy has defeated the Soviet Navy in the Norwegian Sea, and sends a fleet of 4 carriers, plus escorts into the Barents Sea with the objective of destroying the Soviet fleet bases in the Kola Peninsula. The Soviet government panics, seeing a direct danger to the bulk of its fleet of Boomers, and grants nuclear release to Soviet forces in that area. The resulting exchange results in the loss of 4 US carriers, a number of escorts, hundreds of aircraft on both sides, destroys the remainder of the Soviet Red Banner fleet, plus base areas in the Kola, along with the bulk of the cities of Archangel and Murmansk. The loss of nearly one third of the US Navy after serious losses during the previous weeks of fighting is sobering to NATO, but it does essentially end the naval threat to the Atlantic. However the point is made, and both sides halt operations and a de facto cease fire develops for several weeks in the Atlantic and Central Fronts.

Meanwhile, China is recovering from the horrific losses it suffered the previous year, while the Russians have reduced their forces to second and third line units as the bulk of their army is fighting the far more dangerous (from the Soviet perspective) NATO forces to the west. Modern weapons from Japan, Taiwan, and the United States are flooding into China, and a dangerously resurgent Chinese Red Army is ready to drive out the invaders. Meanwhile, the Japanese now see an opportunity to recover the Kurile Islands and Sakkalin, and are planning to use the Chinese as distraction while they launch their own offensive. This offensive is approved by the US, who sees it as an opportunity to completely cut off Soviet forces that have invaded Alaska from resupply and thus making their own offensive to liberate Anchorage and the terminus of the Alaskan pipeline, as well as the Aleutians cheaper in lives.

In August, the Chinese launch a massive offensive, while Japanese forces, covered by elements of the US Pacific Fleet assist. These leads to an immediate return to full scale fighting elsewhere, but just as importantly, the Soviets respond with a massive of use of tactical nuclear weapons in China. The Chinese respond with their own nuclear weapons, and this triggers a large Soviet strike against Chinese military targets with strategic weapons, as well as strikes at military targets in Japan. The North Koreans, who are nearly about to collapse, launch their own strike with the only weapons they have, and that results in the destruction of Tokyo. By September, the Japanese have regained the Kuriles and Sakkalin, but Vladivostok, Tokyo, and a large number of Soviet, Japanese, Canadian, US, and South Korean military bases are destroyed. China suffers even more harshly. Although they have essentially demolished the Soviet armies in their country, the entirety of China north of the Yellow River has been effectively destroyed, and surviving ground forces are soon without supply, reinforcement or support.

By the end of 1996, effective military operations in the Pacific and North Asia have ended. There is no peace, but the North Korean and Chinese governments have ceased to exist, Japan reaches a cease fire with the Russians, South Korea has conquered North Korea but has won a hollow victory, and remaining US forces are withdrawn from the theater.

The horrific cost of the exchanges in Asia and the Kola, along with severe losses, extreme economic strain, and fear bring another de facto cease fire to the war. NATO, particularly the US, makes strong efforts to end the war and get a permanent cease fire and peace settlement. The Soviet government, well aware that economic and military collapse are inevitable, seriously considers the arrangement. A de facto cease fire extends longer and longer but collapses in September when a hard liners in the Soviet government purge the ‘weak and defeatists’ and end discussions.

In November, the Soviets gamble on one last chance to win victory or at least to ensure that NATO loses even if the Soviet Union loses. All available tactical weapons are assembled for a last chance offensive aimed at breaking the NATO armies and pushing them out of Eastern Europe forever. The last available airlift are assembled to initiate a secondary offensive in Alaska to tie down the Americans further, and a final effort will be made to destroy the Turks. In support of this, Soviet Rocket forces will launch a massive counterforce strike at US heavy bombers, Boomer bases and ICBM control centers in an effort to prevent US action, while Soviet Boomers will retain a retaliatory capability.

Everything is set for November 1997. The resulting exchange is forever known as the Thanksgiving Massacre in the United States, while elsewhere its simply called the local name for Doomsday.

End part 1
China and the Far East 1995-1999 (part 1)

Full scale war breaks out as China and Vietnam go to war, and the Russians intervene.
Vietnamese forces 1995
nine military regions, 14 corps headquarters, 10 armoured brigades, three mechanised infantry divisions, 58 infantry divisions whose strengths range from 5,000 to 12,500, 15 independent infantry regiments, one airborne brigade, one demolition engineer regiment ('Sapper'?), more than 10 brigades of field artillery, eight divisions and more than 20 independent brigades of engineers, and 10-16 economic construction divisions. Of this force, only 12 infantry divisions, 6 armored brigades, and 3 mechanized infantry divisions were immediately combat ready. The remainder were brought up to strength over the course of 1995 and received sufficient equipment and weapons from the Soviet Union to be combat capable. Overall the Vietnamese were well led, had excellent tactics, but were armed with obsolete or obsolescent equipment a generation or more behind Soviet forces. All in all they were equal to the Chinese in capability however.

Vietnam had only 26 modern fighters at the start of the war, plus 200 less capable 1960s era fighters, around 50 transport aircraft and 300 operational helicopters. Vietnam also had 3 frigates, 2 corvettes and a few dozen coastal patrol and missile boats available. Just as importantly, the Soviets had a major base at Cam Ranh Bay, with elements of their Pacific Fleet built around a pair of cruisers, and destroyers and frigates. These naval forces were adequate to keep the southern Vietnamese ports open for all of 1995 and into 1996 until the war became a general war.

Chinese forces 1995
Manchuria: 42 infantry divisions, 10 tank divisions,
Sinkiang: 8 infantry divisions, 2 tank divisions
Vietnam border: 20 infantry divisions, 2 tank divisions, 3 airborne divisions
Reserves: 200 reserve infantry divisions plus 200 more divisions raised during 1995
Navy: 30 frigates and destroyers, 30 submarines, several hundred coastal patrol and missile boats
Air Force: 300 modern fighter aircraft, 3,000 obsolete or obsolescent fighter and fighter bombers, 120 obsolescent strategic bombers, 100 transport aircraft, 300 helicopters of various sorts (less then a dozen attack helicopters)
Overall the Chinese were well led, but initially were tactically far behind the Soviets, lacked a good understanding of the modern operational art, were armed with obsolete or obsolescent equipment a generation or more behind Soviet forces, and at a serious disadvantage when facing the Soviets. They had training and tactical disadvantages against the Vietnamese as well. By the end of 1995 and in early 1996, the steady flow of Western and Western designed light infantry weapons, anti tank systems, portable anti aircraft missiles and small numbers of more modern vehicles, along with the expensive lessons of experience (bought through blood) had made a huge improvement in the Chinese Army, and it became the tactical and operational equal of the Soviets and Vietnamese. These gave the Chinese a decisive edge against the Vietnamese once numbers began to tell, and the numerical edge became telling against the Soviets.

Soviet Forces
Soviet Air Force in 1995
200 strategic bombers,
150 Tupolev Tu-95 Bear, 35 Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack, 15 Myasishchev M-4 Bison
550 medium bombers
155 Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire (120 for naval strike), 260 Tupolev Tu-16 Badger (160 naval strike),135 Tupolev Tu-22 Blinder
2830 fighters
610 Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker, 790 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 Fulcrum, 450 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-31 Foxhound (interceptors), 570 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23 Flogger
260 Sukhoi Su-15 Flagon (interceptors), 105 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-25 Foxbat
20 Tupolev Tu-128 Riddler (interceptors)20 Yakovlev Yak-28 Firebar (interceptors)
2705 attack aircraft
770 Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer, 210 Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot, 830 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-27 Flogger, 895 Sukhoi Su-7 Fitter-Aand Sukhoi Su-17 Fitter-C,
84 tankers
34 Ilyushin Il-76 Midas, 30 Myasishchev M-4 'Molot' Bison, 20 Tupolev Tu-16 Badger
40 Beriev A-50 Mainstay
658 tactical reconnaissance and ECM aircraft
65 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 Fishbed, 195 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-25 Foxbat
65 Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer, 195 Yakovlev Yak-28 Brewer
260 strategic reconnaissance and ECM aircraft
115 Tupolev Tu-16 Badger, 15 Tupolev Tu-22 Blinder, 4 Tupolev Tu-95 Bear
102 Yakovlev Yak-28 Brewer, 24 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-25 Foxbat
3050 helicopters (1000 attack, remainder transport and cargo)
1500 trainers and training helicopters
615 transport aircraft
40 Antonov An-124 'Ruslan' Condor, 55 Antonov An-22 'Antey' Cock
210 Antonov An-12 Cub, 310 Ilyushin Il-76 Candid
2,935 civilian and other transport aircraft, usually Aeroflot aircraft which were easily converted

The Soviets committed the following to dealing with China in 1995
610 Flankers, 500 Mig-29, and 200 Mig-23 fighters, 135 TU-22 bombers, 500 Su-24, 210 Su-25, and 400 Mig-27 strike / attack aircraft, plus 10 AWACs, most of their ECM aircraft and recon aircraft, and nearly all of their transports and 50% of their helicopters.

Within two months, the Chinese had lost 70% of their aircraft, while Soviet losses were about 5%. Chinese air defenses north and west of Beijing have been smashed, and supplies and movement behind the Chinese lines are restricted to night and poor weather, and even then losses remain heavy as many Soviet aircraft are capable of night operations. The Chinese threw the majority of their modern aircraft against the Vietnamese, who suffer losses equally as heavy as the Chinese do against the Russians.

By the end of 1995 the Vietnamese Air Force is restricted to operations in southern Vietnam, while Chinese air operations are restricted to south of the Yellow River. The Soviets have complete domination of the air.

At sea, the Soviets have all but destroyed the Chinese Navy, but have lost a pair of cruisers, several destroyers and frigates, and a several diesel electric submarines but have managed to stop most imports into China. The problem for them is that Hong Kong is still British territory, and shipping continues to flow through that port. A problem that angers the Soviet leadership already prone to aggressive behavior.

Soviet ground forces 1995
The Soviets use 17 tank and mechanized divisions (all category I) plus 5 airborne divisions and 5 airborne brigades along with a naval infantry brigade in the initial invasion of Manchuria and Sinkiang. After mobilization, another 10 mechanized divisions (all category II) are used to deal with pockets of resistance as a second echelon, and 15 infantry divisions (all category III and IV) are brought in for garrison and anti-partisan work.

1995 Campaign
The cutting edge is 2 tank and 3 mechanized armies, plus an airborne army, all of which have powerful air and airborne support, the bulk of Soviet electronic warfare capability and the bulk of immediately available munitions and fuel. It is enough to destroy or reduce to weak brigades a total of 90 Chinese divisions over the course of three months of intense operations, and Soviet forces reach the Great Wall by the end of the immediate campaign. Losses however are heavy, and Soviet production is just able to keep up with losses (and is unable to upgrade Category II divisions as planned). Personnel losses are staggering as well, but the overall quality of the Soviet Army does improve significantly.

Operations stall however after 12 weeks as the Soviets exhaust most of the available pre-war stocks of fuel, ammunition and spares, and poor weather begins to limit operations.
October 1995- 1996 China and the Far East
The Soviets find themselves locked in a protracted war as the Chiense refuse to give up or even accept a cease fire. Losses have been heavier then expected, even with the large scale use of chemical weapons and all of the Soviet force multipliers, so the Soviet Army is forced to reorganize. All of its Category III and IV (mobilization only) divisions, which are armed with obsolescent or obsolete equipment anyway are converted into leg or partially motorized infantry divisions. Category II divisions are either converted to infantry divisions or upgraded to Category I as their equipment is sent to the less capable infantry divisions and they recieve new war production equipment and vehicles. The Soviets also find that a great many of their reserve divisions raised from Central Asia are unreliable or questionable at best, and thus decide to send most of those to China where they can be sure at least that they won't go over to the enemy. The Soviets are forced to curtail space operations to the bare bones needed to satisfy military requirements, and Soviet manned space flight comes to an end. The Navy and Air Forces have suffered serious but not heavy losses, and are now far more proficient then in peacetime.

Meanwhile, the Chinese manage to rebuild and form enough mechanized and armored divisions (with imports) to form a pair of mechanized armies that they keep well hidden. The remainder of their army is now a light infantry force, but now armed with modern Western anti tank and light anti air weapons. The Vietnamese are in the worst shape, having been reduced to a light infantry force but they still hold the border area with China, but have lost most of northern Laos.

The nations at war have fully mobilized by the end of the year, and converted to wartime economies. This leads to considerable hardships in their homelands, and malnutrition and hunger become a problem, although not at starvation levels at least yet. The Western Nations see a boom in their munitions sectors, and many Westerners are quiet content to let the Russians and Chinese kill each other for as long as possible. However, the US, UK, Germany, Australia and Canada all quietly expand or ramp up their prepardness, and the former Warsaw Pact nations are trying to get more modern equipment as best they can. They have little luck in 1995 however, as no one has expected a major war and production lines have barely started to accelerate by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Soviet advisors in Syria, Iraq and North Korea pass on lessons to their hosts and help them develop plans. The Soviet leadership is outraged by the potential expansion of NATO and paranoid enough to act. By February nearly half of the first line divisions committed to China are on their way west to be replaced by infantry divisions, while airborne and air force units are redeploying elsewhere.

The political leadership in the West initially misinterprets this as a Soviet move to cut costs and Soviet acceptance of a de facto stalemate with China. Many analysts are convinced that the Soviets are simply trying for war on the cheap and are convinced even these second rate units will be too much for the Chinese for the foreseeable future.

This turns out to be one of the greatest intelligence blunders in military history.

The Second Korean War
The 2nd Korean War began on February 1, 1996 when the bulk of the NKPLA launched a massive attack across the DMZ. They managed to get tactical but not strategic surprise as the South Korean government, alarmed by a major war right next door in China decided to mobilize 50% of its reservists the previous year, and was prepared to mobilize the remainder even as the NKPLA struck. Japan too was on a higher state of readiness, and the US had made preparations to quickly act if the NKPLA decided to go south.

Initial forces:
North Korea
As of 1996, major combat units consisted of 153 divisions and brigades, including 60 infantry divisions/brigades, 25 mechanized infantry brigades, 13 tank brigades, 25 Special Operation Force (SOF) brigades and 30 artillery brigades.[7] North Korea deployed ten corps including sixty divisions and brigades in the forward area south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line. The NKPLA also had 52 obsolete or obsolescent submarines, 8 frigates and corvettes, and over 100 coastal patrol and missile boats, as well 200 short range amphibious assault craft. In addition, the NKPLAF had 100 modern and 200 obsolescent fighters and fighter bombers, 80 medium bombers, 20 attack helicopters, 200 other helicopters and around 400 light transport aircraft. Unknown to everyone but the Soviets, the NKPLA also had a handful of nuclear weapons. The KKPLA had several hundred theater range missiles, and a handful of IRBMs as well.

South Korea
As of 1996, the ROK Army had an army consisting of the Army Headquarters, the Aviation Command, and the Special Warfare Command, with 11 corps, 49 divisions, and 19 brigades, some 560,000 troops and all with much more modern equipment then the NKPLA (equal to Soviet or better). In addition, most of the senior officers had experience from Vietnam and nearly the entire officer corps lieutenant colonel or better had the benefit of US Army training schools. However, nearly 30% of the Army was initially tied down providing rear area security against the large numbers of NKPLA special operations troops, and another 30% was tied down in the defense of Seoul. Another 20% was on the DMZ when the war started. In addition to ground forces, the ROK had a navy with 2 marine divisions, 1 marine brigade (all of elite quality), 18 modern destroyers and frigates, 10 modern submarines, and enough sealift to lift an entire marine brigade. It also had the support of the US 7th Fleet, with 2 carrier battle groups, enough sealift to move another brigade, and numerous submarines, plus the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force with 20 modern submarines, 53 modern destroyers and frigates (including 8 Aegis equipped), and considerable support along with enough sealift to move a brigade.

Within a week the entire NKPLA Army Navy had been destroyed with only minor Allied losses.

In the air, the ROK had 300 modern and 100 obsolescent fighters, plus 40 modern strike aircraft (F15E), plus 100 attack helicopters, 200 other helicopters and sizeable support from the US Air Force.

US forces
Initially, the US 2nd Infantry Division, along with the 8th Army headquarters was in South Korea. The US Air Force had 300 modern fighters and 80 strike aircraft in easy range, and the USMC had another 100 modern fighters in easy range as well. The US I Corps, III MEF, US 3rd Marine Division, 10th Mountain Division, 25th Infantry Division and eventually the 1st Cavalry Division (armored) all reached Korea within 30 days of the start of the conflict. In addition, nearly 50 B52s operating out of Guam provided heavy firepower early in the conflict as well.

The campaign
The NKPLA managed at a tremendous cost to breakthrough the Korean DMZ line, inflicting severe casualties on the US 2nd Infantry Division and 10 ROK divisions. Within a week they were threatening to cut off Seoul, but a desperate counterattack by the remnants of the US 2nd Infantry Division, along with several ROK divisions managed to hold open the vital corridor to the capital. This turned out to be the high point of the war for the NKPLA, and after the mud dried somewhat in April, ROK and US forces drove the NKPLA back across the DMZ although only after taking serious casualties.

The outbreak of general war in May made Korea a secondary theater for Japan and the US, and most US air and naval assets ended up being assigned elsewhere. Even so, the South Koreans managed to advance to a line running Pyongyang / Wonson before exhaustion of supplies, heavy losses and poor weather brought the counteroffensive to an end in September 1996.

The front stalemated during the winter, but in May, the ROK had managed to bring its army back up to strength, while US divisions that had started the campaign had been replaced by US reserve and national guard units (now properly trained and equipped). The resulting offensive took both Pyongyang and Wonson, and by the June ROK forces were driving on the Yalu. By August, the final NKPLA stand is underway in the mountains near the Yalu River, where unknown to Allied intelligence, the NKPLA had its few IRBMs and nuclear warheads.

When the Soviets launched their nuclear strikes in China, the North Koreans took the opportunity to exact a final vengeance. Several IRBMs were aimed at Seoul and Tokyo, and although nearly all failed or were shot down by Patriot missiles (in ROK) or Japanese Aegis destroyers, a single weapon each managed to reach the heart of those great cities.

Although relatively small weapons that partially fizzled, both detonations registered in the 50 kiloton range. This resulted in the destruction of both down town areas and nearly 1 million casualties in Tokyo and similar numbers in Seoul. Soviet strikes hit US and ROK airbases in the region as well, and several bases in Japan took hits from large 500 kiloton weapons, while practically every airbase in Korea, along with Pusan, Inchon, as well as the US bases at Guam and Okinawa were likewise destroyed. US and Chinese strikes resulted in the destruction of Vladivostok, Petropavlovsk, and many Soviet airbases and finished off the remaining survivors of the Soviet Pacific Fleet.

Having suffered heavy losses, and with other campaigns to fight, US forces are for the most part pulled out of Japan and Korea by early 1997. Japan, having taken the Kurile Islands and Sakkalin during its involvement of the war, offers to give Sakkalin back in exchange for peace, and the Soviets quickly agree. The ROK Army finishes mopping up NKPLA forces but is a spent force. The huge damage suffered by Korea forces it to ask for a cease fire with the Soviets as well, and by the middle of 1997 Korea and Japan are both neutral. Both nations have suffered catastrophic damage and have no interest in continuing the war with anyone.

Korea and Japan manage to keep their central governments functioning, but only barely, and martial law remains in effect for the most part. Hunger, disease, radioactive fallout and the direct effects of the war have resulted in the deaths of a third of Japan, and nearly half of Korea (both halves). Their economies have collapsed to basic levels as well.

But they hang on and know that one day they will recover. The war is a devastating blow to Japan, which only got the Kurile Islands and the destruction of its economy (and more deaths then all of its wars in history combined) to show for it. The Japanese people look at the isolation of the Shoganate Period and take it as an example. Korea too pulls back into its Hermit Kingdom ways, but gradually talks begin with Taiwan and the newly forming nation of Canton by the end of 1999 regarding trade and political alliance. Korea feels that at least it got unification out of the war, and saw the destruction of all its enemies. It also saw the withdrawal of the US from the Western Pacific and realizes a new reality now exists.
Nuclear targets in Western Pacific, Japan, and Korea Twilight War period

KT- kilotons
MT – megatons
GB- ground burst (all strikes were air bursts unless otherwise designated)

Apra Harbor naval shipyard 100 KT
(forward base COMSUBPAC, forward repair facilities)
Anderson AFB
(forward base for B52s, P3s, B1s, HQ 13th Air Force) 100 KT

These two strikes resulted in the deaths of nearly 80% of the population of Guam. The survivors were evacuated to Saipan within weeks of the strikes and the island remains uninhabited since that time. The population of the US Commonwealth of Guam and the US Territory of the Northern Marinas stabilized at around 25,000 (30% of prewar) by the year 2000, with the majority of the death toll coming from the nuclear strikes on Guam.

Yokusuka naval base and shipyard 100 KT
(only drydock in West Pac able to handle a carrier, HQ US 7th Fleet)
Misawa Air base 100 KT
(major base for Japanese Air Self Defense Force and US Air Force)
Chitose Air base 100 KT
(major base for Japanese Air Self Defense Force)
Tokyo 50 KT
Korean retribution strike, killed nearly 1 million people, ground zero was the Giza district
Yokota Air base 100 KT
(major base for Japanese Air Self Defense Force and US Air Force)
Yokohama 100 KT
This strike appeared to have occurred because a Patriot missile damaged but did not destroy an incoming Soviet MIRV aimed at Yokusuka, but instead diverted it to the wrong target. Death toll was severe, and resulting fire merged with the one from Tokyo.
Sasebo 2 x 100 KT
Major base for US Navy and major base for Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force
Civilian casualties were especially heavy due to the proximity of the target to a major city.
Kure 1 x 100 KT
Major base for Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, major ship building facility, and alternate headquarters for Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force. Once again civilian casualties were severe.
Kadena AFB (Okinawa) 100 KT
(major base for US Air Force and Marine Corps Air units)

In addition, several missiles from North Korea spread Rice Rust in Japanese food growing areas, inflicting serious damage.

The Japanese suffered 3 million casualties directly from nuclear strikes, but a total of 40 million Japanese died as a result of the war, mainly from disease, civil disorder, famine, and radiation sickness caused by serious fallout drifting from China. Okinawa, which is part of Japan, was essentially depopulated, with nearly 80% of its population dying as a result of direct attack or shortly after from radiation drifting from Japan.

The strikes immediately wiped out all bases available to the US Navy in the Western Pacific (when strikes to Korea, Guam and Okinawa are included), gutted the US Air Force in the Far East and effectively wrecked the Japanese Air and Maritime Self Defense forces, taking out the majority of their base and support structure, as well as catching a number of warships and significant number of aircraft. Within weeks after the strikes, US forces were evacuated from Japan and Korea and all US forces pulled out of the Western Pacific except for a few personnel who remained on Saipan to run communications and signals intelligence facilities, along with a local National Guard composite battalion.

Seoul 65 KT
This was a retribution strike by North Korea, and hit the heart of the city and sadly this bomb did not fizzle as badly as the one that hit Tokyo. Death toll was nearly 1 million.
Pusan 2 x 100 KT
Principal resupply port for US military forces in Korea, and also HQ of South Korean Navy
Cheong Ju AB, Kimhae AB, Kunsan AB, Kwangju AB, Osan AB, Sachon AB, Suwon AB, Taegu AB, Yechon AB 1 x 50 KT each
These strikes wiped out US and South Korean airpower in the region, which were a direct threat to Russian national territory. Civilian casualties varied.

Overall, Korea lost nearly 30 million people during the war of whom nearly 60% of these casualties were in the former North Korea. Casualties were caused by conventional fighting, chemical attacks, nuclear strikes, famine, disease and radiation from China. However, the South Koreans did manage to conquer North Korea and permanently end that threat. Few Koreans consider that the cost was worthwhile.
China, Vietnam and Siberia 1996-1999
As spring began on the Chinese Front, the Soviets have dug in and are clearly settling in for a long struggle. The Chinese are readying themselves. As of May, the Soviets have 45 former Category III and IV divisions (now just regular infantry divisions) deployed either holding the line or rear areas organized into 9 armies. Another 2 armies with 8 tank divisions are in reserve. Aircraft strength has been significantly reduced however, down to 300 modern fighters, 200 attack / strike aircraft, and 100 other aircraft, including AWACs, transports and ECM/Recon aircraft. All of their airborne units, most of the first line heavy mechanized and armored units, and huge portions of the air strength previously committed have shifted west to Central Asia and European Soviet territory. A sizeable amount does remain in Siberia though, including 400 combat aircraft, 4 airborne divisions and significant numbers of transport aircraft and helicopters. Defense analysts are convinced these are in reserve in case the Chinese launch a counter offensive. Some analysts disagree, but are not heard. The West notes the movement, and some steps are taken, but as it turns out, the intent of these forces is misunderstood.
The shift is seen as a defensive move in case Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria and Hungary join NATO. It is not understood that the Soviet government believes the best defense is to fight on someone else’s territory.

In February, the Second Korean War begins, and the Soviet Union remain out of it. In March, a 2nd Gulf War begins, as Syria and Iraq invade Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. In April, Soviet forces invade Rumania, Hungary and Poland when they announce plans to join NATO, and by May general war as begun. Meanwhile, the front in China remains quiet, but the pace of the war elsewhere devours equipment, spares, and ammunition, and the Soviets are now on the defensive by necessity instead of by plan.

In July, the Chinese launch a major offensive using 200 infantry divisions and 30 mechanized and armored divisions, supported by 500 aircraft (of mixed quality) against Soviet forces in Manchuria. At the same time, another 100 divisions assault Vietnam, supported by 600 aircraft and airborne troops.

In ferocious fighting, both sides take staggering losses in Manchuria, and entire Soviet divisions are overrun. The Soviet 1st and 4th Guards Tank Armies are constantly used as fire brigades, shoring up first one front then another. The Soviets are pushed back 200 miles, but manage to maintain a line. Both the Chinese and Soviets are reduced to nearly 50% strength however, and much of Manchuria and nearby areas are reduced to depopulated wastelands as both sides use chemical weapons routinely and on a huge scale. The Chinese offensive finally ends in October as losses and exhaustion set in.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have inflicted similar staggering losses on the Vietnamese, and finally reach the Red River Delta and the key cities of Hanoi and Haiphong by October. The Vietnamese Army is reduced to 50% strength and retreats out of Laos and northern Vietnam, and Chinese forces occupy the area, but are also at 50% strength.. The war returns to a stalemate for the remainder of the year in China. However, a US/Australian invasion of Da Nang causes the Vietnamese to break apart. Southern Vietnamese, who for years have put up with corrupt party officials from the North, declare independence and former ARVN and NVA supporters from the previous war realize that the one thing they can really agree on is that they had more prosperity when the Americans were around the last time and that they really hated the insufferable northerners. By the end of 1996, the Republic of South Vietnam as well as Cambodia have made peace with China and Chinese forces are pulling out of northern Vietnam except for a few divisions to keep order. The remnants of the Vietnamese Army either join the South Vietnamese or go guerilla in the north.

Both the Chinese and Soviets spend months recovering from the previous years battles and preparing for a new round. The collapse of Vietnam has left the Soviets without an ally, while the North Koreans are expected to go down in defeat at any time. In January, the Chinese launch a massive winter offensive with 300 light infantry divisions. Although the Chinese are lacking firepower, and the flow of Western war materials has slowed to a trickle because of the demands on Western sources elsewhere, they have huge numbers. The Russians, still under strength from the summer fighting, and far less well equipped then in the past, are driven back another 200 miles, suffering serious casualties along the way, and when the fighting dies down in May, no longer have solid front but an outpost line with divisional cantonments holding important areas. The tank divisions once again are used over and over as fire brigades, which is what keeps defeat from becoming catastrophe. Chinese losses are once again huge as well, but sizeable formations are able to enter into the rear of the Soviet front and take up guerilla warfare in the interior. This further stretches the Soviets, who now must keep nearly half their strength behind the lines to keep supplies moving to the front.

Desperation sets in, and the Soviets begin issuing tactical nuclear weapons to army and division artillery units, as well as to remaining air units. Plans are drawn up to deal with the next big Chinese offensive.

The front remains quiet during the summer, as the Chinese rebuild their mauled divisions and prepare for a winter campaign set for November to drive the Soviets out once and for all from Manchuria. By late October the Chinese are ready, and on November 1 launch what they deem the final offensive. Massive attacks plague the Soviet rear areas even as the Chinese throw 300 divisions at the Soviet front. The Chinese have also managed to put together a few armored divisions of their own, and this time when the Soviet tank divisions move up to seal the gaps they are caught in the maelstrom of armored combat that usually ends up with both sides being wrecked. By mid November the Soviet front is collapsing, and who divisions and even armies are encircled. Seeing no other choice, the Soviet High Command authorizes the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

On November 25, 1997, dozens of nuclear rockets and artillery shells pound the Chinese Army, while bombers and cruise missiles, along with longer range missiles hit Chinese supply lines, airfields, supply depots and assembly areas. The area between the Great Wall and Shenyang is nearly completely obliterated as a result, and the Chinese Army is all but destroyed. Vengeful Chinese generals purge the government when it refuses to reply, and orders their own strikes. Lacking tactical weapons, the Chinese use long range missiles against the Soviet supply lines. Strikes hit Vladivostok, Chita, Irkutsk, Ulan Ude, and the capital of Mongolia, Ulaan Baatar, as well as Soviet airfields throughout Siberia and Maritime Soviet Union. The Soviets then reply with intermediate range nuclear missiles of their own, and the cities of Beijing, Tainjin, Shiiazung, Taiyun, Jinan, Qingdao, Baotou, and Hohhot are destroyed in reply. Soviet strikes also eliminate all but 2 of the Chinese ICBMs, and both of these are then promptly launched, resulting in the destruction of Novosibirsk, and a near miss that levels several square miles near the city of Omsk.

Further Soviet strikes finish off the Chinese Air Force north of the Yellow River, and also destroy Shanghai.

However, as this is occurring, the Soviets have launched a massive counter force strike against NATO, the result of which is that neither side is in much shape to fight when its done.

The Chinese government collapses as the bulk of the army is wrecked, huge numbers of people are in panicked flight and finally the Cantonese can stand no more and revolt. The Cantonese revolt is essentially bloodless, as the bulk of military forces are local troops and the few that aren’t have no desire to fight anymore. Hong Kong and Canton become the nucleus of a relatively stable area. The remainder of China collapses to the point where government is rarely above the village / town area except for a few cities where local military officers have seized control The Cantonese government negotiates a cease fire with the Soviets, who have problems of their own, and the official war comes to an end between China and the Soviet Union.

In Manchuria, remnants of Soviet and Chinese forces simply remain wherever they last stopped and go into cantonment. Chinese troops no longer have a high command, while Soviet forces obey only those orders they think prudent.

China remains in chaos except for the Canton / Hong Kong area. Soviet and Chinese troops in Manchuria and Sinkiang either retreat to Soviet territory or simply cease even appearing to obey orders and become little more then bandit kingdoms.

Over the course of the Twilight War, over 600 million Chinese die from famine, disease, nuclear radiation, nuclear strikes, chemical attacks, conventional fighting and civil disorder. The Soviets suffer nearly 4 million casualties as well from combat or the collapse of the army, plus another 8 million civilian casualties in Siberia (45% of the population). A total of 100 megatons fell on China, while Soviet territory saw 20 megatons from Chinese strikes.
Nuclear targets in the United States Twilight 2000

The attack
The Russians launched a total of 600 ICBMs at the United States, China, Japan, Great Britain and France on November 26, 1997. Of these, 26 failed on launch, another 59 failed prior to orbit, and 82 failed upon reentry or during midcourse. Of the surviving missiles, 315 were SS25 missiles carrying 3 x 1 MT warheads. These were aimed at 315 ICBM silos. Another 50 SS-24 missiles (with 10 warheads each) were aimed at 100 other ICBM silos (thus of the 450 US ICBM silos, 35 were saved by faulty Russian missiles). Most of these warheads did succeed in working as designed, and between them landed sufficiently close enough to knock their targets. In addition, another 12 SS13 missiles, with single 1 MT warheads, managed to hit close enough to Air Combat Command heavy bomber bases to destroy them. Another 56 ICBMs hit other targets (including 40 aimed at other countries).

USAF bases
Dyess AFB (Abilene Texas) – B1B wing (341st Bomb Wing)
Barksdale AFB (Bossier City, LA) – B52 wing, HQ 8th Air Force (2nd Bomb Wing)
Carswell AFB (Fort Worth, TX) – B1B wing (7th Bomb Wing)
Eaker AFB (Blytheville, ARK)- B52 wing (97th Bomb Wing)
Ellsworth AFB (Rapid City, SD) Missile Wing HQ
Fairchild AFB (Spokane WA) B52 Wing (92nd Bomb Wing)
Grand Forks AFB (Grand Forks ND) B52 Wing (319th), Missile Wing HQ
Griffis AFB (Griffis NY) B1B Wing (416th Wing)
Malmstrom AFB (Great Falls, MT) Missile Wing HQ
100 Minuteman III missile silos located spread around southern Montana
Warren AFB (Cheyenne WY) Missile Wing HQ, 20th Air Force HQ (ICBM HQ)
150 Minuteman III and 50 Peacekeeper missiles silos deployed over a 12,600-square mile area in three states: eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and northern Colorado
Minot AFB (Minot, ND) Missile Wing HQ, B52 Wing (5th Bomb Wing)
150 Minuteman III missiles, located over an 8,500 square mile area in north central North Dakota
Whiteman AFB (Sedalia MO) B2 Wing (509th)

Each missile silo was targeted by 3 MIRV warheads. In most cases 1 hit, although in about 20% of the time, 2 hit in succession. All missile silos were hit by ground bursts. Strike Command managed to get 45% of the ICBMs launched before the strike hit, another 10% managed to get into the air as the strike hit and survived, while the remainder were destroyed in their silos or during launch. This was due to National Command Authority refusing launch on warning standard operating procedure for the ICBMs to reduce the threat of accidental launch in the weeks leading up to the strike. Decision making delays thus resulted in the destruction of roughly half of the US ICBM force.

Radiation was particularly severe to the windward of these locations, but luckily, a major weather system in the area brought it down quickly. Civilian casualties however were nearly total with 200 miles downwind of these target areas. The bomber bases were all hit by air bursts, which destroyed nearby communities, but fall out was relatively light. The areas downwind or in the immediate target areas of these strikes are essentially no longer populated. Fallout also spread over much of the US Midwest and Northeast. Considerable illness and some deaths resulted, but the longer term affects were to be more serious.

Air Combat Command had 250 B52s, 75 B1Bs and 3 B2s operational at the time of the attack. Of these, 25 B52s and 8 B1Bs were in the air (on nuclear alert), another 20 B52s and 5 B1Bs were undergoing extensive maintenance at bases other then their home base, another 20 B52s and 12 B1Bs were dispersed about the country, and 50 B52s and 10 B1Bs were on 15 minute alert. Nearly all of the alert aircraft, plus those dispersed and in the air thus survived the attack and carried out nuclear strike missions of their own, while the aircraft undergoing maintenance survived the attack. In all, 135 B52s, 40 B1Bs and all 3 B2s were destroyed on the ground. In addition, 225 Minuteman 3 missiles, and 25 Peacekeeper missiles were destroyed on the ground, but 175 Minuteman III and 25 Peacekeeper missiles were successfully launched.

Command and Control strikes
Offut AFB (Bellevue Nebraska) Air Force Strike Command HQ (2 x 1 MT groundbursts) Nearby Omaha suffered serious damage but most of the fallout went directly east, missing the city itself. Casualties to that fallout were heavy however in Iowa including the city of Des Moines.

Hickem AFB / Pearl Harbor (Oahu HI) Pacific Command HQ (3x 550 KT airbursts)
Pearl Harbor and Hickem AFB were totally destroyed, and Honolulu suffered serious damage. Civilian casualties were nearly half of the population of the state of Hawaii as the target area was densely populated. Aircraft dispersal reduced losses to only around 50 aircraft, while the Pacific Fleet was a much reduced force so losses were limited to 5 combat ships and 10 support ships.

In addition, 3 x 550 KT warheads detonated about 4 miles south of the island of Oahu apparently due to malfunction.

Cheyenne Mountain, Peterson AFB (Colorado Springs, CO) NORAD/Space Command
The mountain itself was the target and a direct hits from several 1 megaton warheads destroyed the facility. Local fallout made Colorado Springs uninhabitable for a considerable period of time. Another pair of warheads exploded in valleys a few miles to the west, apparently due to malfunction.

Pentagon, Arlington VA – HQ US Armed forces
A single 550 KT ground burst detonated in the middle of the Potomac River, destroying both the Pentagon and the White House, and most of Washington DC. The President was airborne at the time, but the Vice President was delayed and thus still in flight aboard his helicopter which was knocked down by the nuclear detonation resulting in all being aboard being killed. Another pair of warheads were apparently destroyed by this explosion and failed to go off. In addition, 3 more warheads apparently missed Washington DC, and landed a few miles north near Mount Vernon, Virginia. Fallout from all of these ground bursts resulted in heavy casualties in Baltimore, Annapolis and Wilmington, Delaware as well as all the communities around them.

Navy targets
Kings Bay Naval base, GA (on Florida / Georgia state line)
Home port of 9 Trident armed Ohio class SSBNs. At the time of the attack, 3 were in port, and all 3 were destroyed.

Kitsap Naval base and Bremerton Naval Yard, WA (near Bremerton)
Home port of the remainder of the USN Ohio class SSBNs, at the time of the attack, 1 was in harbor, and another was at nearby Bremerton in drydock, as was the USS Kitty Hawk (CV) both targets were hit by airbursts in the 100 KT range, which demolished all 3 warships, several escort ships undergoing repair, and inflicted some damage to Seattle.

Space launch facilities
Kennedy Space Center / Patrick Air Force Base (Florida)
Vandenburg Air Force Base
Edwards Air Force Base

All three targets were destroyed by 3 x 550 KT airbursts, designed to destroy US space launch capability. This was mostly successful, however, missiles aimed at Los Alamos, and Area 51 both failed to successfully launch or complete their flights, and these facilities (which handled aircraft capable of launching small LEO recon and weather satellites) survived. The Edwards attack also destroyed the production facilities for the B2 Stealth Bomber. Fallout was limited and primarily local in all 3 attacks. It did destroy several ICBMs that had satellites instead of warheads loaded, wiping out that capability.

Other damage
3 x 1 MT warheads detonated at 50,000 feet above the US over Montana, Oklahoma and Ohio. These inflicted severe EMP damage to the US civilian economy, knocking out nearly 67% of civilian eletronics.

This damage, along with panic, radiation and the strain of the war essentially brought down the US national economy for most of 1998 and 1999. The Soviet Union did not attack the United States with submarine launched missiles or air launched missiles from their few remaining bombers.

Nuclear strikes on the Soviet Union

Chinese attack
The Chinese lost nearly their entire nuclear missile force capable of reaching Russia from a carefully planned cruise missile attack from Russian bombers that flew from Central Asia then over Tibet and hit them from the south. Only 2 Chinese ICBMs survived, but they were successfully launched and destroyed the city of Novosibirsk (1 MT airburst) and several square kilometers of relatively empty land near Omsk. Chinese theater weapons also managed to get a few hits, destroying the cities of Vladivostok, Chita, Irkutsk, Ulan Ude, the capital city of Mongolia (apparently out of spite) and nearly 30 Soviet airfields east of the Urals, essentially gutting the Soviet Air Force in the region.

US attack
The United States managed to get 175 Minuteman III and 25 Peacekeeper missiles off the ground after the Soviet first strike on the US missile force. Of these, 20 Minuteman and 1 Peacekeeper failed during flight or orbit. Another 20 Minuteman and 2 Peacekeepers were destroyed (along with nearly everything in low earth orbit in the northern hemisphere) by the Soviet launch of 20 ABM missiles from their complex near Moscow. The EMP effects were the main culprits in wiping out most of the satellites orbiting the northern hemisphere.

The US targets were 1500 Soviet ICBM silos (now empty, but some silos were being hurriedly reloaded), and the White Sea, where 18 of the 22 remaining Soviet nuclear ballistic missile submarines hiding in their bastions. Earlier in the war, the US Navy had managed to determined the general locations of each of those, their operating areas, and devised a plan to essentially carpet bomb the area to ensure the destruction of those submarines. Over 100 Minuteman III missiles had so been targeted, and 35 of these survived, hitting the White Sea with a blanket of 105 nuclear detonations that sank or destroyed or rendered severely damaged (so they couldn’t launch) every one of the Soviet missiles boats. It also killed everything in the White Sea with unknown long term ecological effects. The remaining 100 Minuteman IIIs and 22 Peacekeepers hit 520 missile silos (including most of those that were being reloaded).

The follow up US strike involved 95 B52 bombers, which used air launched cruise missiles to destroy every major airfield and air defense missile site in the Soviet Union assigned to its Air Defense Force (PVO). Nearly 1,140 cruise missiles were used, each armed with 50 KT warheads, and this practically exterminated that Soviet military force.

The B1Bs then went in, armed with Short Range Attack Missiles (SRAMs) with 100 KT warheads, and these 30 aircraft, armed with 40 SRAMs each, proceeded to roam at will destroying every single remaining Soviet missile silo as well as Soviet space launch facilities at Lenin-Tyuratam (Kazakhstan), Kapustin Yar (Kazakhstan), and Plesetsk (Russia). A flight of 5 B1Bs attacked Moscow itself, and used SRAMs to destroy the air defenses (losing 2 aircraft in the process) and then leveling the entire city in retaliation for the destruction of Washington DC.

The remaining US B52s and surviving US missile submarines did not take part in the attack. The Soviets were left with a few dozen bombers and 4 missile submarines of their own (all in the Black Sea). At that point, both sides agreed to a nuclear cease fire.

The British had 2 nuclear missile submarines that survived the attack on their forces, while the French had 1 nuclear missile submarine and 3 ICBMs that survived the attack on their country. They agreed to abide with the nuclear cease fire as well, as they were aware a further exchange would certainly mean the destruction of major cities.

Other damage
the destruction of Moscow, tactical strikes in the Ukraine and Belorussia, and theater and tactical strikes in Siberia brought about the collapse of civilian control over the Soviet Union for weeks. This in turn lead to revolt in Central Asia and the Ukraine and a de facto collapse of military operations against China (which had also collapsed). The civilian economy ceased to function for 1998 and 1999 and local authorities were forced to improvise and martial law was adequate to keep some order but the skilled technocrats who ran the national economy died with Moscow.

In short, both the United States and Soviet Union were both essentially knocked out by the nuclear strikes.
United States 1998-1999
Disaster Relief and Homeland Security
The nuclear strikes in November 1997 triggered considerable panic in the civilian population. Although only one city was attacked directly (Washington DC), the major cities of Seattle, Dallas / Fort Worth, Utica (NY), and Omaha were in close proximity to military targets and suffered considerable damage, while Baltimore, Des Moines, St. Louis, Minneapolis / St. Paul, Albany, and Colorado Springs faced considerable fallout from nearby strikes. The states of Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana had essentially suffered nuclear carpet bombing, and huge areas were blasted and charred.

At the time of the strike, the United States Army and Marine Corps had a mere 7 divisions and 2 brigades available for immediate action, and by activating training formations the Army was able to put another 7 divisions and 1 brigade into action to assist. This immediately ended the flow of reinforcements and replacements to the active theaters of war just as they too were reeling from the affects of full scale nuclear combat.

Luckily, most of Congress and the President survived the attack, and a Vice President was quickly appointed and Congress set up shop at its evacuation facility (Al Gore, Democratic, selected for his experience, his moderate Democratic party views and in an effort to unify the country by having a bi-partisan government).

Panic and flight created considerable difficulties, as did communications as the nuclear strikes had created substantial EMP, and huge stretches of the country saw the majority of civilian electronics destroyed. Radiation also created huge numbers of casualties in the Midwest and Northeast, and millions died that winter from Influenza and other illnesses that were normal but were hitting people with compromised immune systems.

The civilian economy essentially came to a halt for months during this time, with only vital sections (food production, transportation of the same, and energy production) managing to continue and only with substantial military help.

Mexico 1998
After the nuclear strikes on North America, which also resulted in a major strike that destroyed the Panama Canal (and the majority of the population of that country), the socialists and communists in Mexico managed to take control in elections, and bought off the army with promises. Cuba, seeing an opportunity to get rid of the Soviets, persuaded Mexico to take them, and also sent vast amounts light and medium anti tank and anti aircraft missile systems and a considerable number of vehicles as well as a large number of aircraft. Between the equipment and Soviet personnel, as well as calling up all of its reserves, the Mexicans tripled the size of their active army and now had a dangerously powerful force just south of the US border. The United States, still reeling from the strikes of November 1997, missed most of this activity, which occurred in December 1997 and the winter of 1998.

July 1998
The Mexican Army has expanded from its pre-war strength of 3 mechanized brigades, 3 armored cavalry brigades and 36 infantry brigades to 3 mechanized divisions, 3 armored cavalry divisions and 36 motorized light infantry divisions. It remained weak in heavy artillery, but has huge numbers of portable light and medium anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, and is supported by 60 Mig21 fighter bombers, 20 F5 fighter bombers, 20 MD attack helicopters, 40 transport helicopters and 20 transport aircraft. In addition, the Soviets move 24 Mig23 and 24 Mig29 aircraft to Mexico from all over Latin America, as well as 20 attack helicopters, 40 transport helicopters and 20 transport aircraft. The Soviets also have a mechanized rifle division (Division Cuba), and a parachute brigade (created from advisors and personnel available).

The Unites States has 14 divisions and 3 brigades in the Continental United States, all of which are scattered throughout the country providing disaster relief and security. The Air Force and Navy have 300 first line fighters (F22, F15, F16) which are concentrated in the northern US as part of NORAD and have a dedicated air defense mission, and 500 jet trainers (T33, TA4) which are combat capable and have for the most part been reassigned to provide air support in ongoing fighting in Alaska and Western Canada.

The United States is as naked to invasion as it will ever be.

August 1998
The Mexicans wait for the first hurricane of the season, and are not disappointed. Tropical Storm Danny hit the coast of Alabama on July 19, and this resulted in most aircraft in the southeast United States being grounded. On July 19, the Mexican and Soviet Army launched a full scale invasion of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California, supported by air strikes and special operations troops and a pre-arranged civil uprising in major cities in the area.

Battle of Southern California
The US 6th Marine Division was stationed at Camp Pendleton and had just finished training when it was deployed to provide security to San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles Counties after November 1997. Scattered throughout the area, its headquarters was at Camp Pendleton, while its field units were scattered over a huge area assisting police and California State Guard troops in trying to maintain order. On July 18, a series of riots exploded as Soviet and Mexican special operations troops triggered gang and race war between Hispanic and other minority communities, focusing the attention of military and civilian forces on dealing with that crisis. Thus the entire area was completely unprepared when the Mexican 2nd Army crossed the border. San Diego was attacked by 3 Mexican motorized light infantry divisions, and the Marines in the area suffered terrible losses before they were able to organize for a last stand at the San Diego Naval base. This allowed for the successful evacuation of the base and destruction of what couldn’t be moved, but only at the cost of nearly all of the Marines. Mexican losses were heavy as well, but sustainable.

Meanwhile, 1 armored cavalry division and 1 mechanized infantry division crossed the border from Mexacali and bypassed San Diego, sweeping into Temacula and then Camp Pendleton. This forced the evacuation of the Marine base, and the destruction of another significant portion of the 6th Marine Division, and also resulted in the fall of most of Orange County relatively undamaged. By the third day of fighting, only a weak regiment of Marines remained, and they were forced to pull back to Long Beach in an effort to cover the evacuation of that naval facility and its subsequent destruction to keep it out of enemy hands.

Further east, the Mexicans crossed into the Imperial Valley with 1 motorized light infantry division, and overran the Marine Corps and Army facilities at Yuma with another. Both of these divisions then drove into California, with one driving into Palm Springs and then moving to capture March Air Force base and 29 Palms Marine Corp base. Light security forces assigned to those areas fought determinedly before being overrun, and survivors were forced to retreat north to Barstow. Meanwhile, the Hermosillo Divison, which had captured Yuma, moved north cutting Interstates 8, 10 and was about to cut Interstate 40 when the US 10th Cavalry Regiment (the training outfit at the National Training Center at nearby Fort Irwin) supported by T33s operating out of Nellis Air Force Base badly mauled the Mexican division at Needles, forcing it to retreat back to Blythe. The 10th Cavalry then covered the evacuation of the China Lake, Fort Irwin, and Barstow military bases and well as the survivors from March AFB and 29 Palms and then retreated to Las Vegas, insuring the security of Nevada at least.

Meanwhile, the US Army quickly sent the 91st Infantry Division from its job of providing security for the San Francisco Bay Area and sent it south, leaving only a brigade behind to continue that vital mission. The division took up defensive positions holding the entrances of the Central Valley, and tied in with surviving marines holding the coastal highway passes.

By the end of August, Mexican forces had completed mopping up in Southern California and the last US troops had either been eliminated or evacuated by sea. However, the huge population living in the area was now in flight, as the US Army cut the supply of water to Southern California, as all three of the major aquaducts feeding the area came from US controlled territory. The entire population panicked, and the Mexican Army was forced to institute draconian measures to keep even a measure of order. A major cholera and typhus outbreak occurred almost immediately as well, and the entire situation was an outright disaster of biblical proportions. A temporary cease fire went into effect as the Mexican Army was forced to halt operations to keep order, while the US Army was processing millions of refugees. By the end of 1998 the population of Southern California had shrunk from its prewar figure of 18 million to a mere 3 million. Mexican forces managed to restore some of the water flowing from the Colorado River and Owens Valley, while political pressure forced President Dole to relent and open the water back up from the Central Valley (although at a much reduced level). Nearly 5 million people fled to the Central Valley, another 2 million to Mexico, but the rest (8 million in all) were dead of disease, panic, civil unrest, or the fortunes of war. Mexican forces have suffered severe casualties trying to keep order, and the Mexican 2nd Army is unable to take advantage of the weak US forces holding the passes and drive further north.

Historians decades later still condemn and praise President Dole for his decision to cut off the water to Los Angeles.

Arizona and New Mexico
The Mexican 3rd Army drove into practically undefended New Mexico and Arizona with a total of 3 divisions. The Mexican 2nd Armored Cavalry Division crossed at Lukeville, Arizona, and then drove full speed cutting Interstate 8 and then sweeping into Phoenix from the west, capturing Luke AFB intact after destroying the light security forces defending it, and then sending out columns that captured Flagstaff (cutting Interstate 40). Meanwhile, the Mexican Mexicali motorized light infantry division overran weakly defended Fort Huachuaca and Davis-Monthan AFB, home to a major US Army intelligence and signals intelligence facility, and the US Air Force Aerospace Maintenance & Regeneration Center (still holding a large supply of useful aircraft). With almost nothing available to commit to creating a front, the President agrees to ordering the few dozen remaining flyable B52s to carry out carpet bombing missions on both facilities to deny them to the enemy. Further bombing is then ordered to level Hermosillo, the primary logistics base supporting the Mexican 2nd and 3rd Armies. Civilian casualties are extremely heavy during the strikes, and Mexican and Soviet aircraft inflict heavy losses as well, but the strikes gut the Hermosillo Division and wreck the Mexican supply line, preventing their forces in Arizona from moving further north.

They also destroy the critical US facilities and prevent the Mexicans from making use of them. Further strikes level Luke AFB and level Juarez on the border with El Paso.

Meanwhile, the Juarez motorized light infantry division is attacking Fort Bliss, which is defended by US Army school units, and those units put up a brave stand, buying time for the evacuation of that base, as well as delaying the critical link up with Soviet parachute units that were dropped on Holloman Air Force Base (and the critical Alamagordo space and nuclear facility). B52 strikes are ordered against the Mexican and Soviet forces, inflicting serious damage on them, and destroying the facilities to keep the enemy from gaining their use, and also buying time for the 6th Infantry Division to be sent down from the Denver area to hold Albuquerque and Santa Fe (and safeguarding the evacuation of Los Alamos). Survivors from Fort Bliss evacuate to Roswell and nearby Cannon AFB where they dig in with local air force security forces.

US air strikes inflict severe losses on the Mexican 3rd Army and prevent it from following up its easy invasion. They keep the damage of the invasion limited to southern New Mexico and Arizona and buy time for the US Army to form a line that stabilizes the situation. The cost is high in American and Mexican civilian lives and rare US aircraft, but well worth the cost.

Battle of Texas
The Mexicans invaded Texas with their strongest forces, consisting of 2 mechanized divisions, 1 armored cavalry division, 6 motorized light infantry divisions and Soviet Division Cuba. The US Army had a single infantry division and 2 mechanized cavalry brigades in Texas at the time, providing disaster relief at Dallas Fort Worth or providing security for vital oil refining and port facilities in Beaumont, Houston, Galveston and Corpus Christi. Significant Air Force security forces were in the San Antonio area, as it was home to the majority of the US Air Force training bases that remained operational, while sizeable US Navy security forces were in Corpus Christi. None of these however were prepared or equipped for sustained conventional ground combat or deployed to deal with such.

The Mexican 3rd Armored Cavalry Division and Presidential Guard Mechanized Division crossed into Brownsville and drove headlong for Corpus Christi, which was defended by elements of the 116th Cavalry Brigade, some Navy security troops and a few A4s that were refitted training aircraft. Although the US forces inflict some losses, they are quickly overrun, and the Mexican forces take the city and its oil refineries intact, along with Corpus Christi naval base and several naval air stations nearby. The rest of the 116th Cavalry is hurriedly rushed down from Houston and Beaumont to make a stand at Victoria, and heavy fighting guts the brigade, but also inflicts heavy damage on Mexican forces.

Meanwhile, Division Cuba, along with the Mexican 1st Mechanized Division, Durango, and Torreon motorized light infantry divisions cross the border at Laredo and drive at high speed toward San Antonio. US Air Force security forces in that city are nearly wiped out covering the evacuation of the bases in that area, and survivors hurry up the road to Austin and then further north. The 36th Infantry Division, which had been formed after the nuclear strike from training units in Texas, is hurried down from Dallas Fort Worth to defend the Texas state capital and cover the evacuation of Fort Hood, Austin, and delay the enemy assault on Dallas and Fort Worth. The Mexicans use their two infantry divisions to pin down the 36th, while Division Cuba sweeps around through Luling, La Grange and Bryan into the US rear, and the Mexican 1st Mechanized drives hard on Houston to the east. The 36th is badly mauled and forced to retreat north, while the 116th, already heavily involved in Victoria, is effectively destroyed.

Houston and Galveston are captured essentially undamaged, although the Mexicans are forced to commit 2 more infantry divisions to trying to secure the vast urban area, particularly the important oil production and refining facilities. Soviet and Mexican forces then capture the wreckage of Fort Worth and relatively undamaged Dallas before damage to their supply lines by unrelenting US air strike forces them to halt offensive operations. Surviving US forces retreat to Louisiana and Oklahoma and wait for reinforcements. Texas, with its large population erupts in guerilla warfare against occupying enemy troops, and between guerilla attacks and air strikes (that gradually diminish as the US runs out of ammunition and aircraft to spare) the Mexican 4th Army is forced to focus on pacifying the area it holds instead of continued operations.

Meanwhile, in western Texas, the Mexicans cross at Eagle Pass with their Chihuahua motorized light infantry division. This division is able to capture the oil fields of Odessa Midland intact, and then proceeds to capture Lubbock before a counterattack by the 278th Cavalry Regiment, hurriedly moved from Fort Sill, mauls it and forces it to fall back to Odessa. The 278th, severely damaged itself, is content to hold Lubbock and wait for reinforcements.

The loss of Texas however is a major disaster for the United States, as the loss of Houston, Beaumont and Corpus Christi costs the United States 20% of its refining capability and the loss of Odessa, along with offshore drilling on the Texas Gulf Coast (as they cannot be logistically supported without the Texas coast) results in a 25% reduction in available domestic oil production.

Mexican and Soviet forces continue to battle local guerillas and struggle to maintain order in the conquered areas they control. US air strikes have cut the flow of replacements and spares reaching the front to a trickle, but at the cost of severely reducing the remaining air strength of the United States (and the destruction of the Mexican and Soviet air strength in Mexico, along with most of its air defenses).

The US evacuates most of its forces in Europe (leaving only 25,000 men organized into the VII Corps, consisting of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Armored Divisions) under British command). The returning 7th Army, consisting of a shadow of its former self with the III, V, and XII Corps, and 1st, 3rd, 4th, 30th, 35th, and 45th Infantry Divisions is rushed to Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma to establish a firm defense line. However, the 7th Army has a mere 90,000 men, 180 tanks, and similar numbers of artillery and armored personnel carriers. Supplies of munitions and spares are exhausted as war production has been completely disrupted by continued problems with food shortages, disease and now fuel shortages. US forces are unable to do more then launch limited probes and establish a firm line. Special operations troops however do what they can to support local guerillas in Texas and other occupied areas.

Meanwhile, the US has also evacuated Asia and the many of its troops from the Middle East. This brings home the remnants of the 8th Army (I Corps, XI Corps, III MEF, along with 1st Cavalry Division, 2nd Infantry Division, 10th Mountain Division, 25th Infantry Division, 40th Infantry Division, and 3rd Marine Division). However, the 8th Army consists of a mere 50,000 men including support troops, and has only 100 tanks and similarly small numbers of heavy guns and armored personnel carriers. Its big enough however with survivors of the Battle of Southern California to establish a firm defense line preventing any further Mexican movement north into Central California and Nevada, but not big enough nor sufficiently supplied to move south either.

In Utah and Colorado, the 5th Army is organized, consisting of survivors from New Mexico, West Texas and Arizona, plus the newly returned remnants of the 82nd Airborne Division and 1st Marine Division. These 2 divisions add only the 1st MEF to support them, and only 16,000 fighting and support troops, but its enough to stabilize the line in northern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and northern Arizona.

The front remains in stalemate for the remainder of the year, and neither side looks ready to be able to act in 2000 either.

Battle of Alaska 1997 – 1999

July 14, 1997
The Soviets launch a massive attack on Alaska as part of their coordinated assault on NATO throughout the world. The US Pacific Fleet is mostly concentrated near Korea and is out of position initially, enabling the Soviets to get surface forces into the Gulf of Alaska and land troops. Meanwhile, the bulk of available Soviet bombers, transports and long range fighters, supported by every available tanker that is available, fly into Alaska. Cruise missiles and bombers also attack US Air Force bases in Alaska to suppress air defenses. Both sides suffer heavy losses, with the bulk of planes shot down being Soviet, but Soviet cruise missiles and bombers knock out Eielson AFB at Fairbanks and suppress Elmendorf sufficiently for transports carrying paratroopers to get through.

Soviet landings occur at
Kodiak Island Coast Guard base – 1st Naval Infantry Brigade, which overruns the small US Coast Guard contingent and seizes the important airfield.

Eielson AFB/Fort Wainwright (Fairbanks)- 106th Guards Airborne Division, which lands on top of the 207th Infantry Brigade/7th Infantry Division. The US brigade, only recently mobilized, is still undergoing refresher training on D-Day, and is caught completely by surprise. Nevertheless, it puts up determined and fierce resistance before survivors are forced to retreat southwest along the Alcan Highway. The battle also takes out an important interceptor base, and cuts the Alaskan Pipeline. The 106th is left wrecked as well, but holds Fairbanks for the time being.

Elmendorf AFB/Fort Richardson (Anchorage)- home of the headquarters of the 7th Infantry Division, a regular Army division which had only two brigades at the start of the 2nd Korean War. One of these went to Korea to provide a round-out brigade for the 25th Infantry Division, while the remaining brigade and the headquarters went to Alaska to take over for the 172nd Infantry Brigade, which also went to Korea. There the 7th Infantry took command of the Alaskan Scouts brigade/Alaskan National Guard, and the 207th Infantry Brigade/Alaskan National Guard. On D-Day, the Soviets dropped the 6th Guards Airborne Division by parachute, and on D+2, landed the remainder of the 20th Army, consisting of the 139th Light Infantry Division, 141st Light Infantry Division and 1st and 2nd Arctic Mechanized Brigades on the Seward Peninsula. Although US Naval forces soon destroyed the Soviet Pacific Fleet, they did so too late to prevent a landing. The severely outnumbered 7th Infantry fought bitterly but was overwhelmed and mostly destroyed, with a few survivors retreating north toward Fort Greeley. The battle also resulted in the capture of Anchorage and Seward. Soviet losses were heavy, but the loss of Fairbanks, Anchorage and the Aleutians enabled the Soviets to fly in the remainder of the 11th Army including the 104th Guards Airborne Division.

Aleutians – elements of the Soviet 1st Naval Infantry brigade seized US bases at Shemlya Air Station (Kiska) and Dutch Harbor which were undefended or defended by light security forces. This action took out key NORAD radars, and also gave them airbases linking them back to Siberia.
By the end of July, the US Army was rushing reinforcements to the area. Air Force units, supported by the Canadians, had managed to secure the air space over Juneau and the Inside Passage connecting Puget Sound to Juneau and barges and ships were bringing the up reinforcements to Juneau and then Skagway, while the AlCan Highway was in constant use as well.

Situation August 1997
Soviet Forces
Fairbanks area- Soviet 11th Army with 106th Airborne Division, 104th Airborne Division
Anchorage / Seward – Soviet 20th Army with 6th Airborne Division, 1st Arctic Mechanized Brigade, 2nd Arctic Mechanized Brigade, 139th Infantry Division
Aleutian Islands / Kodiak Islands – Soviet 141st Infantry Division, 1st Naval Infantry Brigade

US / Canadian Forces
Fort Lewis, WA - 6th Army
Juneau / Skagway – XI Corps with 26th Light Infantry Division, 38th Infantry Division
Whitehorse- X Corps with 34th Infantry Division, Canadian 2nd Infantry Division, Canadian 3rd Infantry Division
Fort Greeley (100 miles SE of Fairbanks) – 7th Infantry Division (remnants)
Western Alaska (HQ Nome) – 1st Alaskan Scouts Brigade

The US forces in Western Alaska and Fort Greeley are essentially cut off, but have adequate supplies to survive (but not do much else). The Soviets have sufficient supplies to hold, but not attack either as their Pacific Fleet has been destroyed. They are however getting a trickle of supplies in by air, mostly munitions.

August – October 1997
The 6th Army is able to get forces into place but not do much more the begin probes when the Alaskan winter sets in. The Soviets have sufficient fuel and supplies to hold out through the winter and see no reason to move.

November 1997
The Soviets use tactical nuclear weapons to destroy Skagway, Juneau and Whitehorse, inflicting serious damage to American and Canadian support and logistics units, and wrecking the supply lines of the 6th Army. The Americans reply in kind, destroying captured airfields at Kiska and Kodiak Island as well as Elmendorf Air Force base (inflicting some damage to Anchorage as well).

November 1997 – April 1998
Winter prevents any significant operations, and both sides suffer significant casualties due to harsh weather and supply problems. Neither side is getting much from home any more and both sides are essentially marooned for the winter.

Summer 1998 (May – September)
The Soviets attack Fort Greely, and overrun the survivors of the 7th Infantry Division which is effectively destroyed, but not before inflicting serious losses on the Soviet 6th Guards Airborne which is now reduced to a small brigade in size.

The Americans manage to repair the port facilities at Juneau and Skagway enough for a trickle of supplies to reach the American and Canadian forces. It is enough for the X and XI Corps to make a march on Fairbanks, and in heavy fighting, American and Canadian troops take the city and drive surviving Soviet paratroopers into full retreat. Casualties are heavy however, and by September cold weather has brought the Americans and Canadians to a halt at Fort Greeley.

Winter 1998-1999
Worsening conditions in North America and the Soviet Union end any further supply to Alaska (for the Soviets) or reduce it to a trickle. Both sides go into cantonment and wait for better days.

Summer 1999
The supply situation does not improve with summer, as the US has bigger problems dealing with the situation at home, while Canada is at its limit as well. American and Canadian forces aggressively patrol, but lack sufficient logistical support or manpower to attempt a march on Anchorage.

Winter 1999-2000
The return of winter ends most operations. In western Alaska, the Alaskan Scouts and local militias control that region, while troops and local militias also control northern Alaska. Soviet forces are limited to the Anchorage / Seward area, with some surviving pockets that are dying out in the Aleutians and Kodiak Island. US and Canadian forces hold Fairbanks, Fort Greeley and Juneau and have a secure supply line, although little is being delivered along it.
Europe during the Twilight War

July – September 1997
The Soviet Union invades Poland, Czechslovakia, Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria after all five nations attempt to join the European Union and NATO. A total of 11 Combined Arms Armies and 2 Tank Armies cross the borders of those countries, support by thousands of aircraft. The local defenders, who during their Warsaw Pact days have been equipped with second rate equipment and lacked the means to modernize during the 1990s fight back desperately but have obsolete equipment and lack combat experience, while the Soviet forces are equipped with the latest of Soviet manufacture and have a high percentage of veteran troops from the conflict in China. Within hours however, NATO declares that it will support the Eastern Europeans, and American, British, French, Italian, Dutch and Belgian troops are hurrying across Germany to move to assist the Poles, Czechs and Hungarians. Turkey announces its support for the Bulgarians and its forces move into the help them as well. Only Greece refuses to take part and it declares its neutrality, while Italy, Spain and Denmark prepare to move but are unable to immediately send troops to the active fronts.

The Poles are wrecked, but fight desperately enough to slow the Soviets down sufficiently to allow the US 7th Army and BAOR, with attached Dutch and Belgian divisions to establish a defense line along the Vistula River and over the next few weeks the Soviet assault is broken at that line. Spare equipment shipped from the United States and 2 division sets worth of pre-positioned US equipment are used to rebuild the Polish Army which is able to take up a portion of the front by the September.

The Eastern Europeans request the German troops NOT enter their nations, and in deference to left over feelings from World War II, the German Army is instead used in the Middle East, North African and Scandinavian theaters of the conflict.

The Czechs manage to hold long enough for French troops to arrive and between them, they manage to hold the western portion of the county and keep the line tied in with the Vistula Line. Rumania however is simply overwhelmed, and Soviet forces quickly destroy its army before driving into Bulgaria, where Turkish and Bulgarian forces manage to make a stand and save Sofia. However a portion of these Soviet forces swing into Hungary, where they smash the Hungarian army, and its forces retreat into Austria which joins in with NATO as well. Italian and Spanish troops reach that front and take stand with the Hungarians and Austrians and manage to establish a firm line as well by August.

In Norway, the Soviets manage to reach Narvik before a desperate stand by Norwegian local forces, German mountain and parachute brigades, the US 2nd Marine Division and British Marine and Parachute brigades manage to stop them. A counteroffensive in September then lands behind the Soviets and destroys the bulk of the elite parachute and naval infantry as well as mechanized infantry that the Soviets had committed.

In the air, NATO air forces deal effectively and then decisively with Soviet air power, quickly gaining total dominance at night and superiority during the day and by September have gutted Soviet Frontal Aviation on every front. NATO losses are heavy, but by October NATO strike aircraft are operating at will over Belorussia, the Baltic, the Ukraine as well as the Balkans and Poland.

At sea, the same occurs. Initially the Soviets are able to inflict some serious blows, but the unforgiving geography that forces Soviet warships to run a gauntlet of NATO bases simply to reach open water is decisive and by the end of July their fleets are have forced into bases or sunk. Submarines inflict heavy losses on NATO shipping initially, but they to suffer crippling losses either en route to the combat area or returning to base, and by the end of August have retreated to defending their bases in Murmansk and the eastern Baltic, or remained bottled up in the Black Sea. NATO naval forces sweep the seas by September, ensuring that massive reinforcement convoys from the United States arrive unmolested.

October – November 1997
The US and British reinforce their armies in Poland with reserve units and effectively double in size, while Germany provides equipment to rearm the Hungarians, Austrians, Czechs, Turks and Bulgarians and rebuild a token Rumanian force. In mid October, NATO launches a general offensive that smashes through the Soviet lines, and by early November have driven the Soviets back on every front into the Soviet Union itself.

The Soviets warn of dire consequences if NATO continues but those threats are ignored, and NATO armies drive deep into the Baltic Republics, Belorus and the Ukraine. NATO aircraft are now operating deep in the Soviet Union, and have driven Soviet frontal aviation back to the Volga, and are even attacking with stealth aircraft targets near Moscow itself.

At the same time, the US and British fleets are hammering Soviet bases in the Kola Peninsula and German, Danish, and Polish warships are off the coast of Riga.

The Soviets panic at this point, as they are facing defeat not only in the West, but also in China and fearful of invasion, with mutinies and civil unrest sweeping across Central Asia, they turn to nuclear weapons. Soviet MRBM and IRBM strikes hit NATO airfields in Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and Belgium, effectively gutting NATO logistical support for their air forces and inflicting severe casualties on ground personnel and heavy aircraft casualties. The Soviets also use battlefield weapons against NATO spearheads, inflicting serious losses everywhere while missiles hit NATO headquarters and logistics units. The United States releases tactical weapons to its British and French allies, and reply in kind.

The NATO offensive is halted however, and NATO forces retreat out of Soviet territory but both sides are severely mauled. Meanwhile, strikes continue, with Russian strikes destroying Brussels (home of NATO headquarters), Berlin (apparently out of spite) and French and British submarine bases and French nuclear missile silos on November 27 as part of the strategic exchange between the United States and Soviet Union.

December 1997 – March 1998
Surviving ground forces halt for the winter but remained dispersed in order to limit damage in case of another exchange of weapons. Patrol actions and probes continue, but neither side is getting much in the way of re-supply, pre-war stocks are exhausted and production is collapsing everywhere. Although most European cities where not directly targeted, the large number of tactical and theater weapons used has inflicted staggering civilian casualties, while EMP has severely damaged electronics across most of Europe and radiation both from strikes in the Soviet Union and local strikes results in millions dying of disease, radiation sickness and despair over the harsh winter. The armies do a little better, but continued skirmishing continues to inflict losses and wear them down.

Meanwhile, the former Yugoslavia sees a renewed bout of fighting, and the Greeks side with the Serbs, while Italy and Turkey side with the Croatians, Slovenes, and others. Fighting becomes general and spreads into the Aegean Sea. Severe losses during the nuclear strikes have severely weakened the US Navy (which lost several carriers during the nuclear exchange) so the Italians and Turks are able to wreck the Greek Navy only at the cost of seeing their own navies wrecked. Fighting in Yugoslavia savages both sides, who are also reduced to skirmishing and patrols by mid winter.

April – September 1998
A unusually cool summer and spring in Europe means dangerously low harvests in Europe and the western Soviet Union. Both sides conduct small offensives to firm up their lines, and the Soviets take the worst of it, but US and Canadian troops are becoming fewer and fewer as attrition continues to take its toll and no reinforcements or replacements are coming across the Atlantic from a devastated North America. Air operations also sharply decrease, but NATO air continues to dominate the skies over its territory and most of the Ukraine and Belorus. A mutiny breaks out in the Ukraine as ethnic Ukrainians troops murder their political officers and declare the establishment of a free Ukraine. This triggers heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces throughout the southern sections of the front.

The front for the most part remains passive however, as many units put their troops to work growing food or protecting local farmers who can do so, and operations quickly end by harvest season in August and September.

October 1998 – March 1999
Another cold and bitter winter arrives, and civilian death rates continue to remain high. Nearly half of the population of Europe and European Soviet Union has died since 1997, with the worst losses the previous year but remaining high this winter as well. Armies suffer fewer deaths but are receiving no replacements or resupply, and many European units are returned home for disaster relief missions. Many Soviet units dissolve due to desertion, mutiny or nationalism, but NATO forces are incapable of taking advantage of this and driving into Soviet territory. The Ukraine continues to remain in civil war between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Sweden meanwhile sends troops to help the Finns and Norwegians and stability returns to those nations even though death rates remain severe. In the meantime, the United States and Canada decide to send the bulk of their troops home to deal with problems in their homelands. The Canadians send all they have left (a mere 10,000 survivors) while the US pulls the remnants of the 2nd Marine Division to Iceland (which took a nuclear strike on the US base there in 1997) to help restore order. The US Army leaves 4 armored divisions (1st – 4th) and a Corps headquarters in Europe made up of 30,000 volunteers (the divisions are really glorified brigades) under British command, and the rest of the US Army and Air Force (around 150,000 survivors) in Europe is sent home using all available shipping, along with some of its equipment. Remaining equipment is left in Europe for US use, or transferred to the Polish Army.

April 1999 – December 1999
The armies remain in cantonments for the rest of the year, struggling to stay fed and remain coherent. Harvests and the weather improve this year, but not decisively so.

More and more troops are sent home to help with disaster relief and to suppress riots as many of the Moslem population of Europe, already marginalized before the war find themselves even more so as the war continues and many revolt. The Europeans react with considerable force and not a little savagery, which alienates to a considerable extent the US, Canada and British. Mutinies cease in the Soviet Army as many soldiers realize their best chance of survival is to remain organized, but fighting in the Ukraine continues. Fighting also continues in the former Yugoslavia, Aegean and in Albania between Greek/Serbian forces and Italian/Turkish/various former Yugoslav forces. It remains inconclusive but has engulfed Cyprus by this point as well.

Mediterranean and Middle East Twilight War era

March – June 1997
Syria and Iraq invade Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in March, assisted by special operations and terrorist attacks that inflict serious damage to the Saudi military command structure, as well as US communications and command facilities in Saudi Arabia. Heavy bombardment by long range missiles also inflicts heavy damage on Saudi garrisons as they are trying to mobilize, while similar strikes in Kuwait are mostly neutralized by US and Kuwaiti air defense units. The United States, heavily stretched by the 2nd Korean War already, deploys a second and then a third carrier group to the Indian Ocean, and sends the 24th Infantry Division to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to man prepositioned equipment there, as well as the 101st Airborne Division and 1st Marine Division (both also have prepositioned equipment or are readily deployable by air). The 9th Infantry Division sends a significant portion of its strength to Saudi as well to protect bases.

The invading forces, consisting of 4 Syrian armored divisions and 20 Iraqi divisions of varying quality, along with hundreds of relatively modern Soviet aircraft are hoping for quick victory, but are stopped cold in Kuwait. However, the Saudis are in considerable confusion initially, and a drive on Riyadh overruns several Saudi brigades which collapse or are destroyed. Survivors retreat east toward the coast, leaving the road open to Riyadh which falls on March 20. This causes the Saudis to relent in their refusal to allow the Israelis to ally with them, and on March 21, the Israelis enter the war and attack Syrian forces in Lebanon and Syria. Saudi Arabia also makes promises to Jordan, who sees a chance for some payback against Syria, and it invades Syria from the south as well on March 28.

In April, US and Saudi forces, assisted by brigades assembled from the other Gulf states and newly arrived Omani forces launch a counter offensive that retakes King Khalid Military City and cuts off Iraqi forces in Riyadh. By this point, US, Saudi, and Israeli air force units have wiped out the Iraqi and Syrian air force, and their navies are also utterly demolished.

By May, US and Arab Gulf Council forces are driving into Iraq and mopping up surrendering Iraqi troops in Riyadh, while Israeli forces have surrounded both Damascus and Beirut and essentially wrecked the Syrian Army, which is retreating north to Hims.

Meanwhile, Egypt declares war on Sudan after a terrorist attack kills hundreds in Cairo and another attack comes within a hairsbreadth of inflicting major damage to the Aswan Dam. Half of its army goes south, and by the end of May has destroyed the Sudanese
Army and occupied Khartoum.

Logistics issues bring about a pause in the Iraqi theater by mid-May, and US and Arab forces are just outside of Basra and Al Najaf. Israeli forces continue to besiege Beirut and Damascus but Jordanian forces return home to deal with a Palestinian uprising inside of Jordan itself. Egypt occupies Gaza (with the agreement of Israel) and begins hunting down Hamas forces after terrorists sink several merchant ships in the Suez Canal, temporarily closing it. Syria and Iraq both refuse to surrender.

Meanwhile, Islamic extremists win their war in Algeria after they manage to kill a number of important political and military officials and they take power. They immediately ally with the Soviet Union and Libya.

July – November 1997
With the coming of war between NATO and the Soviet Union, war explodes across the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean. The US Navy wins big in the Indian Ocean, wiping out Soviet naval forces within 2 weeks, and then with the help of South African paratroopers and French marines occupying Socatra Island, the principal Soviet base. Omani, Egyptian and Saudi forces overrun Yemen shortly after. Ethiopia declares its neutrality and sits out the war, so by the end of August Allied forces have firm control of the Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean, as well as the Red Sea.

In the Mediterranean, the US Navy, backed by the Egyptian, Israeli, Turkish, Moroccan, Italian, French, Spanish and British navies destroy the Soviet, Algerian, and Libyan navies by the end of July, and also wipe out most of the Algerian and Libyan air forces. Losses are heavy, but bearable because of the total victory. Italian airborne and marine forces land in Tunisia to secure it when Algerian forces invade, while Spanish and US forces (82nd Airborne) arrive in Morocco to help defend that country. Meanwhile, the Germans, who are unwanted in Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe, are desperately wanted for North Africa and the Middle East. The German 5th Panzer Army is formed, consisting of 3 Panzer and 3 Mechanized Divisions, and it is shipped by rail to Italian and French ports where it is then sent to Tunisia. Alongside it are a pair of Italian divisions and many in NATO quickly refer to this force with amusement as the “2nd Afrika Korps”

By August, Egyptian forces are driving deep into Libya, while Italian and German forces are driving deep into Algeria. By the end of September, both nations have fallen, and Algerian rebels are forming a new government with the help of the Germans. Egypt is occupying both Libya and Sudan, and the Mediterranean is secure.

In Iraq, another German corps is sent to help out there, and it arrives in September along with a French corps. These new forces, along with American and Arab forces then drive north and crush the remnants of the Iraqi Army and overrun the country. Syria surrenders at this point when Damascus does, and Turkish forces occupy northern Syria. Israeli forces occupy the rest of Syria along with Lebanon and find themselves fighting a nasty guerilla war.

September and October see an end to conventional operations and occupying Allied forces spend their time dealing with die hard remnants of local forces, guerillas, and terrorists. Kurdish leaders begin forming an army with the help of the United States to take over operations there, although this displeases the Turks they have problems of their own. By the end of October, US forces are pulled back to base areas to refit before being sent elsewhere, and German and Arab units have taken over the occupation of southern Iraq, while Kurdish units are dealing with the pacifying their territory.

In November, however, things worsened. The Soviets as part of their strategic attack on NATO forces, destroy the ports of Dharan, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi, which has the effect of destroying 60% of the oil loading and 80% of the oil refining capability in the Persian Gulf in allied hands. This immediately makes Iraq and Kuwait even more critical then ever. It also severely damages US forces in the area, who were mostly deployed near Bahrain in preparation for shipment to Europe.

December 1997 – December 1998
In January, the Iranians look over the situation and like what they see. American and Saudi forces are badly damaged, and the Arabs in general are thinly deployed performing security duties. There are sizeable numbers of Shiite Moslems throughout the Gulf who despise the Saudi and other local governments and perfectly willing to rise up. The United States is wrecked, and is not going to be sending anything to Iran, and only the Europeans have any sizeable forces in Iraq, and those aren’t going to be reinforced either.

The entire Iranian Army crosses the border into Iraq, while Iranian Revolutionary Guards and amphibious units launch a surprise invasion across the Strait of Hormuz into Oman, and also seize Dubai. The Germans and French manage to hold on to Baghdad, but Basra is overrun after its Arab garrison is overwhelmed by insurgents in the city itself. Saudi Arabia is forced to pull out of Iraq to deal with problems at home, and surviving US forces are hurried to the UAE to deal with the Iranian invasion.

By March, the Iranians have been stopped, and indeed, have been pushed out of Oman and the UAE, but only at the cost of using up remaining stocks of ammunition and spares are the Germans, Kuwaitis and French able to retake Basra. An Australian division arrives to help out, and it takes over security and the front line in southern Iraq.

The remainder of the year sees static fighting, as the Iranians are pushed back to the border but refuse to quit, and the Allies lack the means to take the war into Iran itself. Air strikes inflict serious damage on Iranian infrastructure however, and the war remains stalemated.

Meanwhile, the Arab governments are barely able to hang on to control, and some areas, particularly in the rural regions, the situation has collapsed into lawlessness.

In the Levant, the Israelis set up local governments in parts of Lebanon and withdraw to a security zone consisting of one third of the rest of the country, while pulling out completely from Syria, which then immediately collapses into anarchy. The US 3rd Army is sent by road to Israel to regroup, and part of it returns home, while remaining US forces in the Mediterranean area are in Israel, where they take up border security so that the Israelis can deal with the remnants of the Palestinian Insurgency. Jordan also gets US help patrolling its border with Syria so it too can get a handle on the Palestinian Insurgency in its country. Political suggestions are made to Israel and Jordan regarding a more permanent political solution to the Palestinians which basically calls for creating a federation with member communities from all three groups; Bedouin, Palestinian and Jew who would all be citizens of the Federation of Palestine but have local self government in their regions. This goes nowhere in 1998.

In North Africa, German forces remain on occupation duty in Algeria and Tunisia, while Egypt has effectively de facto annexed Libya and Sudan. No one pays this any attention as the Egyptians are shipping Libyan oil to both Israel and Europe to buy themselves support, while the Germans are helping the Algerians set up a government and shipping oil to Europe as well. Oil production in Iraq resumes, and significant amounts are shipped out, but oil shipments out of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States are essentially a trickle due to damage. Falling demand however means that this has little impact.

The war with Iran remains a stalemate, while elsewhere conditions continue much as they did the previous year. The Palestinians, Jews and Jordanians begin to grow tired of the third year of insurgency and begin to consider more seriously US advice.

Meanwhile, the Kurds have declared their independence, and seized Kurdish majority areas from a collapsing Turkey and severely weakened Iran. Neither nation is able to stop them as they are dealing with huge problems of their own.

Armenia, Georgia and Ajarbajan also declare their independence as Soviet control shrinks more and more after the severe damage they have suffered during the war.
I've only just found this. I think it's really good! :)


heavy borrowing from "The War that Never Was" (a book I can't recommend enough) and "Arclight" as well as the original Twilight 2000 timeline and other sources including my own interpretation of how things would have gone. Also used as a source was Dupuys book "Future Wars" (written in the early 1990s) regarding a possible war between China and Russia in that time period.
108 views and no one has any comments or suggestions? sigh

Keep up the good work, I'll have to put a link to this in the Twilight boards I'm a member of, maybe you'll get more comments if more eyes see this. BTW, I think two PODS to keep the USSR around, one is the one you used where Boris Yeltsin was shot by a sniper while standing on a BMP in 1991, alternately have the 1993 coup work but the 1991 one would be a better POD.
Keep up the good work, I'll have to put a link to this in the Twilight boards I'm a member of, maybe you'll get more comments if more eyes see this. BTW, I think two PODS to keep the USSR around, one is the one you used where Boris Yeltsin was shot by a sniper while standing on a BMP in 1991, alternately have the 1993 coup work but the 1991 one would be a better POD.

thanks, I should really edit it as there are some grammar issues I need to fix.
Some quick questions. First, who is going to be elected President in 1996? Barring an assassination, when Bush leaves office in 1996, the Republicans are going to look bad for causing an international arms escalation. Second, with the fighting in the Spratleys, the Asian economic crisis is going to take place, but under even more dire circumstances.

Just consider that if you have Dan Quayle become President, you will have an incompetant administrator, who micro-manages events, similar to George W. Bush (c.2005-2008).
Some quick questions. First, who is going to be elected President in 1996? Barring an assassination, when Bush leaves office in 1996, the Republicans are going to look bad for causing an international arms escalation. Second, with the fighting in the Spratleys, the Asian economic crisis is going to take place, but under even more dire circumstances.

Just consider that if you have Dan Quayle become President, you will have an incompetant administrator, who micro-manages events, similar to George W. Bush (c.2005-2008).

I went with Dole mainly because he was the actual candidate in 1996, was war veteran with a lot of experience, and since Clinton didn't win in 1992 the likely Democratic candidate would have been someone like Gephart. I assume a close race with a marginal Republican victory.

I do assume the Asian economic crisis you mention, but the speed of events eclipses that as far as importance is concerned. Most likely Japan, Korea and Taiwan suffer the most as their sealanes are very close by but eventually shipping reroutes to avoid the area, and some escorting occurs. Not wanting to bring those nations in, at least at first the Russians are Chinese are careful not to hit their shipping.

Just found your link thanks to Chuck putting it up on a T2K forum. Good job. I guess in your TL has Operation Desert Storm and troops left in Kuwait?
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