Alot of this depends on how Sanders and Cruz win their respective primaries.
Cruz is the easiest to speculate on here. Iy's not hard to imagine moderate R's like McMullin and Kasich withdrawing early to support Trump's strongest rival for the nomination. With his contenders out, Cruz rides the never-Trump support all the way to the nomination. Fiorina still has a strong shot at the V.P. nomination. Other options include:
- Rand Paul (to woo more isolationist and anti-estsblishment R's)
- Mike Lee (same as above but with a more religious edge)
- Rob Portman (help swing Ohio and balance out Cruz's social conservatism)
- John Kasich (same as above but more religious)
- Marco Rubio (double down on on hispanic vote)
Lets assume however that Cruz sticks with Fiorina.
Getting Sanders over the hump will be trickier. Clinton was a tough opponent. That said, she wasnt without scandels or roadblocks. For sake of imagination, lets imagine Clinton falls ill during the primary as opposed to the general, and to a more serious degree. She has to lay off on campaigning for a few weeks and sanders is able to use this to his advantage, closeing the polling gap. Sanders thus wins by a NARROW margin.
For V.P., sanders has a tough choice. He can either double down on his populist message, or do more to reach out to minorities. My guess is that Sanders opts for the former, believing that Cruz's presence seals the deal with minorities. In particular, Sanders picks Sherrod brown, boosting his populist stance and his popularity in Ohio. Some other options may be:
- Elizabeth Warren (populist + outhreach to women)
- John Lewis (a civil rights hero and clinton ally, Lewis would rebuild some important bridges)
- Hillary Clinton (high risk, high reward)
- Al Franken (charismatic midwestern liberal, helping woo over moderates)
- Stephen benjamin (relativley unknown sc mayor. Black outreach + moderate appeal)
With regards to third parties, most of the bids we saw irl will be knee capped. McMullin has little reason to aggressivley work against Cruz, and probably sits this election out. Stein would also lose much of her support to Sanders. Johnson is in a rough place too. Cruz had strong libertarian credentials on economics and a strong "small government" brand. Cruz's would also benefit from a more unified party. My guess is that Johnson hovers at around 2 percent.
In there place however, others will rise. Most assuredly, Michael Bloomberg would run in opposition to what he would see as two radical candidates. For his V.P., he probably takes Mike Mullin, as he considered OTL. Bloombergs moderate, establishment positions endear him to moderates and technocrats, even netting him a few wealthy donors and high level endorsements. That said, Bloomberg would struggle to excite any particular group in large numbers, and he gets stuck around 5-7 percent much of the time.
Theres a strong chance trump also goes third party, running much as he did IRL, focusing on his antiestablishment credentials. For his V.p., trump picks his friend Carl Ichan. Sans Republican resources however, trump languishes in the polls.
Moving on to the general, its a close race through and through.Sanders and Cruz both make pivots in some sense, as Sanders ups his minority outreach efforts and Cruz shifts in to an almost libertarian campaign, focusing on curbing big government and reigning in corrupt elites. The debates are intense, with Cruz generally seen as the winner due to gaffes made by Sanders (think the debate between Cruz and Sanders over healthcare but repeated thrice). Brown fairs much better in V.p. debates however.
In regards to scadals, the campaign is relativley clean. Sanders' "Rape essay" is mentioned and it does wound him, though Cruz gains few voters fro. The move himself. Meanwhile Cruz's comments on policing Muslim neighborhoods are brought up, though Cruz's core supporters are unphased.
Election day is extremley close.
Pop vote:
Sanders/Brown: 45.6%
Cruz/fiorina: 43.9%
Bloomberg/Mullin: 6.5%
Trump/Ichan: 4.%
And the map:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Q87ZY
A recount is held in Ohio, but sanders stays on top. The election goes to the house then. Having Sanders at the top of the ticket improves house results, but Republicans keep control and Cruz wins. The senate however, flips to a narrow Democrat majority, giving brown the win. Thus giving us president Ted Cruz and v.p. Sherrod Brown.