An Alt-Altmark Incident

Driftless

Donor
An Alt-Altmark Incident

The POD I’m suggesting here generates several butterfly possibilities and I’m not sure which are the most plausible or possible.

The set up: Shortly after the outbreak of WW2 in 1939, the Altmark was a German naval auxiliary serving as both supply and prison ship for the 300 +/- survivors of ships sunk by the Graf Spee. Following the demise of the pocket battleship, the Altmark’s Captain Heinrich Dau attempted to avoid the the British navy and bring his ship back to Germany. He chose the long way round the British Isles and entered Norwegian waters on Feb 14, 1940, . Norway was still a neutral country at that point, but under great diplomatic pressure from both the Germans and the Allies.

The Altmark was originally intercepted by Norwegian patrol boats, and a running diplomatic cat & mouse game ensued between the Norwegians and Germans as the Altmark made it’s way down the Norwegian coast. IF the Altmark were considered a merchant ship, she would be allowed passage (more or less). IF she was considered a naval ship, legally she was required to return to international waters. Initially the Norwegian naval forces (led by Rear-Admiral Carsten Tank-Nielsen) in the initial contact area were doubtful of the Altmark’s contention that it was a merchant ship, but were over-ruled by higher authority. As events picked up pace, essentially, the Norwegians hoped to get the Altmark out of their hair as quickly as possible without international incident . It did not work that way.....

Meanwhile, a British Naval force, lead by Captain Phillip Vian on the Destroyer HMS Cossack(acting on direct instruction from First Lord of the Admiralty – Winston Churchill) intercepted the Altmark and the Norwegian naval ships in Jossingfjord near the southern tip of Norway. Long story made short, a boarding party from the Cossack stormed the Altmark well within Norwegian territorial waters, rescuing the captive British (and other) sailors and killing a number of German sailors in the process.

The Altmark Incident became something of a “last straw” for both Germany and Great Britain as far as both sides viewed the Norwegians as being ineffective at enforcing their neutrality.

The POD I’m suggesting is that Norwegian Rear-Admiral Tank-Nielsen orders a complete inspection of the Altmark immediately after it was intercepted on entering Norwegian waters on February 14.
• Captain Dau of the Altmark probably refuses to allow the inspection – What might happen then?
• Do the Norwegians attempt to board the Altmark? – doubtful, but possible
• IF Admiral Tank-Nielsen opts to force the Altmark out of Norwegian territorial waters, what is most likely to happen next – with regard to the British navy and the Altmark? Would the British attempt to seize the ship in international waters?
• How would this alternative action by Admiral Tank-Nielsen affect the perception of Norwegian neutrality? Remember, the Germans were already working on contingency plans for invading Norway by this point in time.
* What other diplomatic fallout is there from both the Allied and German sides? First Lord of the Admiralty Churchill was actively searching for a reason to intervene in Scandinavia for several purposes and the OTL Altmark Incident strengthened his hand.

I’m not sure of any of the outcomes of changes I’ve listed above. I’m interested in what others think here.
 
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I can not offer suggestions but I think that it might help to set up Norway being willing to cooperate more with Britain and be on a more alert towards German aggression. This might help to eliminate the success of German invasion forces and airborne troops if Germany still goes to take over Norway.
 

Driftless

Donor
*bump*

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a few more comments. Too many butterfly's?

I'll stir the pot then....

POD - Norwegian Admiral Tank-Nielsen finds that Captain Dau's merchant ship claims and explanations don't pass the "smell" test and insists upon a full neutrality examination of the Altmark. Captain Dau unconditionally refuses and attempts to contact the German embassy in Oslo. The Norwegians intercept the cable and it does not get delivered (the contact attempt is more-or-less historic).

With Captain Dau's refusal to allow an inspection, Admiral Tank-Nielsen orders the Altmark to leave Norwegian waters as a military vessel or face seizure.

The Altmark is escorted to international waters by Norwegian warships and is followed to ensure compliance with Admiral Tank-Nielsen's instructions.

Eventually Captain Vian and the British destroyers spot the Altmark, which makes a run for Norwegian waters again. HMS Cossack closes with the Altmark on the sea, but within Norwegian territorial limits (OTL this occured within the confines of Jossingfjord). The Altmark is captured, the prisoners released, some German sailors were killed.

Norway vigorously issues diplomatic protests to both the British and Germans about their respective violations of Norwegian territory. The Germans counter-claim that the Norwegians violated international neutrality rules by forcing the Altmark to sea and not defending the Altmark from British military action (the fact that the Altmark's original presence was a violation is conveniently ignored). The British also counter the Norwegian complaint with commentary that the current Norwegian military is incapable of enforcing their own neutrality rules - they need help from a friendly power... i.e. Great Britain.

Admiral Tank-Nielsen is suspended pending court-martial (or it's Norwegian naval equivalent) for exceeding his authority; and putting Norway at risk of war. The Norwegian cabinet takes the view that the Altmark Incident was a "one-off" by the Germans and the problem will not occur again.....

The Germans identify that Norwegian neutrality does not help their situation, proceed with developing their plans for Operation Weserubung (historically the attacks begin April 9, with preliminaries underway days and even weeks before)

The British (and French) are left with a more confusing situation than OTL, as it is politically apparent that the Norwegians did follow neutrality protocols and international (US primarily) support the Norwegian attempt. It puts the brakes on First Lord of the Admiralty Churchill's pressure to seize Narvik and attempt to seize the Swedish iron ore region - ostensibly to provide access to aid the Finns. Diplomatic efforts to reduce/eliminate iron ore shipments to Germany are the favored method of gaining that political end for public consumption versus direct military action.

First Lord of the Admiralty Churchill continues to search for alternative circumstances to provoke German military action towards Norway, in order to create conditions to fight the Germans that work to the advantage of the Royal Navy (more or less historic). Stepped up Allied naval and air patrols on North and Norwegians Seas are pressed as close to the Norwegian coast as possible.

On April 9, 1940; the Germans launch Operation Weserubung against Denmark and Norway.
 
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Well these changes to TTL may make the detection of German forces easier. With more warnings the Norwegians may be able to deter the Germans and give them setbacks.
 
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