An Alaska Question. WI there was no US Purchase

Well, this might butterfly the Russian Revolution and Cold War altogether. If gold is ever discovered, you might see boom in settlement, but I doubt it would be Russian settlement- the US and Canada are closer with more people. This would probably lead to a situation similar to what happened in Texas-Russian Alaska had only 700 settlers in 1867. Alaska would either be likely to be absorbed by the US or Canada(or partitioned between the two) then, or if the Revolution hits, it would be brought into the fold then.

Filibustering actually didn't have all that great a track record.

The Russian Empire was not Mexico. It had gone toe to toe with Napoleon, helped to Crush France during the revolutionary wars, beaten the Swedish Empire, dismembered Poland, kicked around the Ottoman's like a rented mule, conquered Siberia, overrun central Asia, bitten off pieces of China, and fought France and England to a standstill recently.

If there was big money to be made off a gold rush in Alaska, the Russians would send in enough troops to put a lid on it, they wouldn't be gentle, and they'd settle it.

They surely will not give up on a valuable territory. They sold Alaska because it was worthless to them, not worth the effort of holding onto it. If it's valuable, they'll fight to hold onto it.

Not saying that they'd succeed. But while the territory is somewhat more accessible from British Colombia, or from the Pacific, or the ports on the American West coast than it was from Russia, it wasn't really super accessible to anyone. Alaska really was the ass end of the world. British Colombia was a minor settler colony in the British Empire, it wasn't a major staging post, so the British Navy would have had to sail literally around the Atlantic or Indian Oceans, through the Pacific to get there. California was a state, but not the huge state it was now, and there was a lot of emptiness between. The American west and west coast was still developing.
 
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First of all, please check if this PoD is small or minor.

Alaska in OTL is under USA, a superpower OTL which you want exchange for Russia, a cold war superpower.

What happens now to the people living in Alaska in OTL? Unless they are isolated from USA for the rest of OTL history, changing this would change the people, and the effects made by the people living in the Alaskan environment. From Wyatt Earp down to Sarah Palin to Mario Chalmers. You dont even know what happens in close door negotiations between US Congress that affects the world's lives which involves Alaskan vote.

What happens to the gold or oil economy that provided Americans/US economies income? Less income means smaller economy. The trickle down effect that these industries provide. If you look at studies, 1 job created by a gold mine is indirectly responsible for roughly around 2 new jobs created. But since Alaska will belong to Russia, those jobs will now go to Russia instead of OTL USA. Dont get started me with oil jobs and its indirect effects to OTL history.

Your claim this is a minor or small PoD, definitely not.

You're assuming that the US doesn't take it at a later date. As someone else pointed out the Russians had colonists in the hundreds but after gold was discovered the population jumped to 100,000+ and those weren't Russians they were Americans and Canadians. Russia had a devil of a time getting a fleet into the Pacific to fight Japan, doing it successfully years earlier to protect a nearly empty Alaska from American settlers is unlikely even if gold is involved. The Americans meanwhile managed to successfully transport 30,000 settlers to Alaska in one summer. The odds of it ending up as an American territory one way or the other are fairly high. A Texas or Hawaii situation seems likely as American immigrants overwhelm those already there and decide to join the Union. And anything that hurts Russia's colonial goals and distracts them from central Asia is likely to meet with Britain's tacit approval.
 
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But mass migration would only be possible if the Russians permitted thousands of Americans to dock at their Alaskan ports, which they wont. This isn't Texas where there was easy access by land.

Given the cordial relationship between US and Russia in the second half of the 19th century I don't see US going to war so gold prospectors can have passage to the goldfields of the Yukon. The British Empire might do it, but probably not USA. All in all I think a Tsarist government in exile setup in the wake of the revolution is the most likely outcome. It would be very interesting as Russian Alaska would be a Taiwan analogue in the Cold War.
 
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But mass migration would only be possible if the Russians permitted thousands of Americans to dock at their Alaskan ports, which they wont.

How do they stop them? There are no ports. Most of the settlers were actually just dropped off on the shore or on tidal flats since there weren't even towns in most places. At its height Russian Alaska had 700 settlers. By the time Russia gets the news that gold has been discovered Americans are streaming north in the tens of thousands. If the Far East fleet is deployed to intercept there's a good chance that many of the crews jump ship to mine gold considering the 1905 revolution was only a few years away. And with growing tensions with Japan dispatching ships to the far side of the Pacific might be problematic.

I don't think Russia would give it up without a fight either political or economic and they'd certainly petition the US to restrain their citizens at the very least and attempt to turn back ships. But unless they're willing to start shooting Americans I don't think there's much they can do to stop the flood of people as there were simply too many trying to go in too many ships. And if they start shooting Americans or sinking ships then they're going to end up at war with the US. The US was frankly looking for a fight and if Russia gave them a reason I don't doubt for a minute the US public would be clamoring for war.

Russia's best course of action is to let the Americans in and tax the gold to all hell and then when the American settlers start kicking up a political fuss sell the territory to the US at many times what it was sold for in OTL.
 
I thought the Russian Empire had readily available manpower to settle wilderness in its system of penal servitude. If gold is found, couldn't the government send less criminals and dissidents to Siberia, and instead build new camps and mines in Alaska?
 
As the P.o.D. is no Alaska purchase by the USA, it would probably be bought by the British. Partly to say "no hard feelings" over the Crimean War, partly to get Russia out of North America (see the Great Game) and partly to prevent the USA getting it. Throw in a dynastic marriage at the same time to seal the deal. A few decades later, Alaska becomes part of the newly federated Dominion of Canada.
 
As the P.o.D. is no Alaska purchase by the USA, it would probably be bought by the British. Partly to say "no hard feelings" over the Crimean War, partly to get Russia out of North America (see the Great Game) and partly to prevent the USA getting it. Throw in a dynastic marriage at the same time to seal the deal. A few decades later, Alaska becomes part of the newly federated Dominion of Canada.

Or the Tsar could decide to hold, unless Britain gives the Russians a very good offer, onto it as a way of threatening British North America as part of the great game, British troops stationed in Canada are not in India after all.
 

Anaxagoras

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As the P.o.D. is no Alaska purchase by the USA, it would probably be bought by the British. Partly to say "no hard feelings" over the Crimean War, partly to get Russia out of North America (see the Great Game) and partly to prevent the USA getting it. Throw in a dynastic marriage at the same time to seal the deal. A few decades later, Alaska becomes part of the newly federated Dominion of Canada.

But the Russians didn't want the British to have it. That was part of the reason they sold it to the United States in the first place, as they feared the British would just take it in a future war.
 
But the Russians didn't want the British to have it. That was part of the reason they sold it to the United States in the first place, as they feared the British would just take it in a future war.
I was under the impression that the Russians believed/hoped that the Britsih and Americans would bid over it, but the British didn't really care enough.
 
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