An Age of Miracles Continues: The Empire of Rhomania

Or it could pull a Serbia and cause a world war later on. Which would be unfortunate but interesting.

I do like the idea and see how it could work in the short term but also how it lacks the sheer defensible topography that makes Swiss long term neutrality work. Combine that with being a very lucrative goal for any neighboring power to want to incorporate and they could pull a Switzerland impression right up until one of the great powers/alliances enforcing this state of affairs is distracted, disunited, or otherwise unavailable and the other side is good to go, and then boom, either independence lost or massive European war.

Or both. Both is fun.
Who would light the fires though? A Genonese person? Or Tuscanian and even a Lombardese? There's too little info and it's a bit too far in the timeline. Though if I had to guess it would be the Genonese exiles that would probably light it by killing someone important. Hopefully not of Roman Origin but since this TTL, the events of like WW1 would probably happen differently.
 
I think there is a key difference (assuming this refers to the idea of a guaranteed N.Italy) - Neutral Switzerland was very much a business affair - neutrality was good for mercenaries, avoided Swiss fighting Swiss, and was easy to hold due to a terrifying reputation and great terrain.

This is more precarious because its primarily diplomatic geography that is protecting it. Sure the Alps are good, but it is still vulnerable to the Romans, Sicilians, Arletians, HRE and Bernese. Part of me wonders whether it might make itself a Venice-Writ-Large, or the home of any traders that want to be safe from individual great powers.
Venice is Roman controlled right? Only The Lombard plains and Tuscan region are the most suspectable region that will be defended.
 
Or it could pull a Serbia and cause a world war later on. Which would be unfortunate but interesting.

I do like the idea and see how it could work in the short term but also how it lacks the sheer defensible topography that makes Swiss long term neutrality work. Combine that with being a very lucrative goal for any neighboring power to want to incorporate and they could pull a Switzerland impression right up until one of the great powers/alliances enforcing this state of affairs is distracted, disunited, or otherwise unavailable and the other side is good to go, and then boom, either independence lost or massive European war.

Or both. Both is fun.
Actually I think more likely than someone grabbing it while one of the other neighbors is distracted I think you're more likely to see a Poland style partition down the line when everyone agrees it would just be better for everyone if there were no more Italy.
 
Actually I think more likely than someone grabbing it while one of the other neighbors is distracted I think you're more likely to see a Poland style partition down the line when everyone agrees it would just be better for everyone if there were no more Italy.
That could definitely happen, its just a very small area compared to much larger Poland. I would think it would be a very hard status quo to maintain for a region that is not particularly large, is very lucrative, and has the bonus of pretty defensible borders if you can take it wholesale. Another potentially interesting plot point honestly, everyone either trying to maintain that status quo or upend it.
 
Another potentially interesting plot point honestly, everyone either trying to maintain that status quo or upend it.
A future revanchist Rome would be the most likely candidate in upending the status quo of an independent Italy, although as of now they're in no position of threatening the independence of Northern Italy. Meanwhile, Arles, the HRE, and Hungary probably wouldn't receive a whole lot of benefit in taking over the Po Valley for the costs in conquering it.
 
The one silver lining to this debacle is that I ended up going back and reviewing some earlier Sicilian-Roman history for the rewrite, and, man, did that give me some fun stuff to play with here. Definitely must keep it in mind.

Revision Posted in Original Location. Please see threadmark 'Look to the West: The Surest Defense'
 
A future revanchist Rome would be the most likely candidate in upending the status quo of an independent Italy, although as of now they're in no position of threatening the independence of Northern Italy. Meanwhile, Arles, the HRE, and Hungary probably wouldn't receive a whole lot of benefit in taking over the Po Valley for the costs in conquering it.
There's no benefit for Rome to make the first action, they need to have a opportunity to act upon. If Rome is to retake Northern Italy it needs to have three things to succeed:

The latins nearest need to be totally distracted and unable to prevent a take over of the peninsula.

You need a sizable nato/warsaw pact allies that can definitely fight of a coalition latin eueope.

Need for fifth column groups to support the "takeover".

If it fails well regaining the roman Republic border during the 1st punic war is more than enough of a victory.
 
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The one silver lining to this debacle is that I ended up going back and reviewing some earlier Sicilian-Roman history for the rewrite, and, man, did that give me some fun stuff to play with here. Definitely must keep it in mind.

Revision Posted in Original Location. Please see threadmark 'Look to the West: The Surest Defense'
This updated revision seems more reasonable, especially when it emphasizes that Triunia is being held at arms-length, the Accord is moving explicitly in Lombardy alone and that Sicily would much prefer remaining within the Roman sphere.

Also, dat Sicilian proto-nationalism be kool. Born in fire and tempered in water after all.

All in all, yes, this was good.
 
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There's no benefit for Rome to make the first action, they need to have a opportunity to act upon.
Perhaps, but if the pieces fall into place, I still think Rome would most likely be the most likely candidate to destroy Lombardy's independence given the chance. Hopefully such a chance doesn't really arrive because having a neutral Lombardy act as a Switzerland of the Latin-Roman spheres would be very interesting to say the least.
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The latest revision really is like night and day compared to the original. I do have to commend B444 for further explaining the reasons of the formation of the Accord (a coalition between Arles, Spain, Aragon, the Bernese League, and the Triunes) as well as the failings of Roman diplomacy during this crisis due to their arrogance, ignorance, and aggression towards the Latin powers. There's no open war with Rhomania yet, but this kind of diplomatic crisis is entirely on them and it's fair to say that the Accord will have the initiative when it comes to Lombardy and perhaps even Roman Italy/Sicily. By the time Demetrios III actually started to notice the affairs in Italy, it was far too late to change course. Overall, I think Rhomania is definitely walking on a very thin tightrope and any mistake will spiral them into a literal hell for them while they're still exhausted and economically strained.

Another highlight is Sicily, where Despot Hektor is still loyal to Rhomania but also makes it clear that Sicily's interests should be respected as per the agreement between the Sicilians and the Romans. It's well justified since Sicily would be the literal wall that has to stand against a massive coalition army, on top of economic concerns that leads Sicily to desire maintaining the status quo with Northern Italy. If there's any ally that can help Rhomania escape this mess, it would most likely be Hektor and his ambassadors. Italian cooperation in any future diplomatic meeting will be paramount to keeping the peace.

Sometimes the surest defense is not of guns and steel but of pen and paper. I guess we'll see if whether Rhomania will choose the former or the latter.
 
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Definitely the diplomacy. As much as the warhawks in Rhomania may want the Accord to be crushed for their impudence, it is plain that the Ottomans are priority #1, and provoking this intervention into a full-scale war will not only mean trashing Italy (ironically making it both more difficult and more worthless to keep), but also likely force Sicily into, or be close to, the Accord and provide the Ottomans with the golden opportunity to try and break into Anatolia, with Roman attention divided again. Given that this is Ibrahim we're talking about, Demetrios won't want to take any chances.

Moving on, Genoa's independence and neutrality is guaranteed, but that does not preclude the rest of reconstituted Lombardy from potentially joining or be strong-armed into the Accord.
With four good medium-to-large economic and demographic players, the Accord could potentially be a fourth great player in European politics, with Germany, Triunia and Rhomania.
 
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Thinking more about it, it might be plausible for the end result of this Italian Crisis to be something like this:

1. Independent Genoa, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Triunia and Rhomania.
2. Independent Lombardy centred around the Po valley (i.e. just a little bigger than the modern OTL region of Lombardy), a member of the Accord.
3. Independent Tuscany, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Rhomania and Sicily.
4. Despotates of Lation and Emilia, with Umbria and other small borderlands ceded to Sicily.
5. Joint Roman-Sicilian-Spanish action against the Barbary pirates (I'm pretty sure Rhomania can spare enough of its navy for this, and maybe someone will get an unpleasant reminder of the Green Ships scandal).
 
Thinking more about it, it might be plausible for the end result of this Italian Crisis to be something like this:

1. Independent Genoa, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Triunia and Rhomania.
2. Independent Lombardy centred around the Po valley (i.e. just a little bigger than the modern OTL region of Lombardy), a member of the Accord.
3. Independent Tuscany, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Rhomania and Sicily.
4. Despotates of Lation and Emilia, with Umbria and other small borderlands ceded to Sicily.
5. Joint Roman-Sicilian-Spanish action against the Barbary pirates (I'm pretty sure Rhomania can spare enough of its navy for this, and maybe someone will get an unpleasant reminder of the Green Ships scandal).
I think this is where the wind will be blowing after the Italian Crisis, for sure.
Rhomania is going to lose both prestige and land in the aftermath, which will surely upset the warhawk faction, but this is still a victory for Rhomania in the long run, although the general public in the future probably won't recognize its importance. Peace with the West is absolutely vital for Rhomania's eventual economic recovery and its efforts against the Ottomans, which is ostensibly the bigger threat right now, and I will surely expect D3 to work his magic towards preventing this conflict from spilling over.

As for the Accord, I would agree that the Accord will probably continue in some fashion, one way or another. This is mainly because of the Triunes, who are extremely scary as a continental power in Europe. Although Rhomania is the current target of the Accord, I wouldn't be surprised if Spain, Arles, Aragon, Lombardy, and other members of the coalition were to act against the Triunes in the future to maintain the balance of power.
 
Henri II keeps winning in the political realm. The guy barely does anything but lend his name to this coalition and gets full recognition of his conquests from everyone. Talk about leveraging your power - he got a ton for giving up very little. Not gonna lie, I'm gonna miss the guy when he's gone - he's rapidly becoming someone I love to hate.

As far as the Romans, regardless of how this crisis ends up, how can they trust the Accord ever again? They'll see it as a betrayal by a nation (Arles) they were formerly fairly close with. Not saying that's true, just saying that's what the Roman view will be I think. No wonder they hate Latins - to them Latins just exist to screw Romans over.
 
A magnificent update/revision. Brimming with details (a big effort to add all that new material) and (to me) fully logical and plausible.

And I don't think "Romans" (or better said Demetrios or Athena, since Romans are not a single mind entity) will view this as a betrayal by either Sicily, or Arles. More like mea culpa/I've fucked up, let's save what we can.

Thinking more about it, it might be plausible for the end result of this Italian Crisis to be something like this:

1. Independent Genoa, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Triunia and Rhomania.
2. Independent Lombardy centred around the Po valley (i.e. just a little bigger than the modern OTL region of Lombardy), a member of the Accord.
3. Independent Tuscany, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Rhomania and Sicily.
4. Despotates of Lation and Emilia, with Umbria and other small borderlands ceded to Sicily.
5. Joint Roman-Sicilian-Spanish action against the Barbary pirates (I'm pretty sure Rhomania can spare enough of its navy for this, and maybe someone will get an unpleasant reminder of the Green Ships scandal).
And I completely agree with Bronze regarding the outcome, which I find plausible and beneficial for anyone. Rome really gets enough new territory to justify war expenses, gets neutral northern Italy (which is the prime thing to seek from this war, too many invasions had came from there) and repairs relations with Sicily.

As a Roman fanboy I would like for them to once take whole northern Italy, but they need to be much much stronger than now to take it and hold it against all the opposition. Which will always be there, as OTL history shows northern Italy is too rich and strategic to be gained easily. There are better targets elsewhere. Especially as northern Italy currently has no major connection to Rome (cultural or economic).

EDIT: I also love a bit of Henri background, makes him much more human and realised character. Until now I mostly viewed him as Timothy Dalton in Lion in Winter - annoying and endless schemer.
 
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Definitely the diplomacy. As much as the warhawks in Rhomania may want the Accord to be crushed for their impudence, it is plain that the Ottomans are priority #1, and provoking this intervention into a full-scale war will not only mean trashing Italy (ironically making it both more difficult and more worthless to keep), but also likely force Sicily into, or be close to, the Accord and provide the Ottomans with the golden opportunity to try and break into Anatolia, with Roman attention divided again. Given that this is Iskandar we're talking about, Demetrios won't want to take any chances.

Moving on, Genoa's independence and neutrality is guaranteed, but that does not preclude the rest of reconstituted Lombardy from potentially joining or be strong-armed into the Accord.
With four good medium-to-large economic and demographic players, the Accord could potentially be a fourth great player in European politics, with Germany, Triunia and Rhomania.
Iskander? Isn't that Ibrahim your talking about? They still have to deal with the Afghan problem. The truce expires on ten years correct? By the end of the ordeal in the west, I'm still guessing that the conflict on the afghan region is still not resolve due to that problematic mountain area. By that point in time the Romans should have started their recovery regardless of the economic and social problem. The Ottomans may have to deal with that Afghan problem in 1-3 years .

Though I still hate that Iskander the younger is gonna betray Rome the second Odysseus dies.
 
The one silver lining to this debacle is that I ended up going back and reviewing some earlier Sicilian-Roman history for the rewrite, and, man, did that give me some fun stuff to play with here. Definitely must keep it in mind.

Revision Posted in Original Location. Please see threadmark 'Look to the West: The Surest Defense'
Sicily is interesting... large population speaking Sicilian (a distinct variant of Italian), just as large population speaking Greek. an originally catholic population, again an equally large population following the Greek rite. I'd expect that in the past 150 years Hellenization has on the rise again but there is probably a distinct Sicilian identity. Dunno if you are going to end up with a separate national identity, you most certainly are going to end up with a regional one, Austria may be a good example there.) And what exactly happens with Sicilian church? This is what happened OTL. But with Sicily freed or conquered, take your pick, from Constantinople again in the late 15th century TTL the status of the Greek Orthodox in south Italy drastically changes again...
 
That is a monster of an update B444, and thank you for it, and as said elsewhere, brimming with details and clear as day what is happening where and when! It really fleshes out the mindset of the other players, which is great as they seem more like their own actors than people reacting purely to Rome. Genoa and delay after delay that appear to be lies makes a whole load of sense as a reason for an ultimatum. :)
 
Thinking more about it, it might be plausible for the end result of this Italian Crisis to be something like this:

1. Independent Genoa, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Triunia and Rhomania.
2. Independent Lombardy centred around the Po valley (i.e. just a little bigger than the modern OTL region of Lombardy), a member of the Accord.
3. Independent Tuscany, with neutrality guaranteed by the Accord, Rhomania and Sicily.
4. Despotates of Lation and Emilia, with Umbria and other small borderlands ceded to Sicily.
5. Joint Roman-Sicilian-Spanish action against the Barbary pirates (I'm pretty sure Rhomania can spare enough of its navy for this, and maybe someone will get an unpleasant reminder of the Green Ships scandal).
About this, I made a very rough map to illustrate:
954px-Italy_location_map.svg_20201119164742969.jpg
 
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