An Affair of States: Breckenridge Wins

Why would Lincoln dying affect anyone's vote? If Lincoln died, then Hamblin would take office. It wouldn't make any difference either way to most voters.

You may be right there; I don't believe Lincoln was that prominent outside of Illinois (at least to the common voter), so the common voter probably wasn't voting for him.

That said, it is possible that if Lincoln were to actually die, there would be a dispute over whether or not Hamlin would move up into the Presidential slot. This is a question that isn't really worked out now (Horace Greeley not withstanding, since the votes were already counted and he'd already lost). And in 1860, they are less than twenty years removed from a serious dispute over whether or not the Vice-President actually became President if the latter died.

So, there is some possibility of chaos in the aftermath of candidate Lincoln's death. If its early on, the Republican Convention may meet again and nominate someone else. Or if that doesn't work out, or if Lincoln's death is too late to preclude a convention, you may see a lot of posturing by other prominent Republicans, like Seward, Cameron, Chase, and obviously Hamlin, for the Presidential spot. I could conceive of each of those Republicans winning a few states, which would throw things to the House. And as mentioned earlier, while that House has a large Republican majority, the voting is done by state delegation, and the Democrats had a majority of delegations. So, the top three electoral vote earners would be put before the House; that'll probably be Breckinridge, Bell, and either Douglas or one of the Republicans. I don't know that it will result in a Breckinridge Presidency, but it would prevent a Republican administration in 1860. The House would have an incentive to hurry though; if they do not make a decision by March 4th, 1861, the Presidency would go to Solomon Foot, a Republican and President Pro Tem of the Senate.

Sorry, short question, long answer
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
If Lincoln doesn't get the nod, then it'll likely go to Seward, which is just gonna freak the South out even more.
 
I think the POD would be because of the Republican platform. Like has been noted above he didn't campaign. But his adherents did. And at the time the Republicans were a wild coalition. They had suffragists, know-nothings and all kinds of other zanies in there.

Two big poisonous issues for Lincoln. Anti Immigration and very high tariffs for public works. If his adherents push issues like suffrage, anti immigration and high taxes Lincoln would loose lots of support. He would forgo MA and NY on both those issues. sufferage might cost support in other marginal areas. On the Immigration issue he would defintily loose CA and OR in addition to MA and NY.

Taxes are never popular at election time. Between elections there are always folks who want to spend more money, but at election time, there are not. These things could easily cost Lincoln four or five states which we could give to Breckinridge.
 
The 1860 Republican platform was pro-immigration:

14. That the Republican Party is opposed to any change in our naturalization laws, or any state legislation by which the rights of citizenship hitherto accorded by emigrants from foreign lands shall be abridged or impaired; and in favor of giving a full and efficient protection to the rights of all classes of citizens, whether native or naturalized, both at home and abroad.

My understanding is that most of the Know-Nothings went for Bell's Constitutional Union party (which was formed as a merger between the Know-Nothing Party and the Southern branch of the Whig party), not for the Republicans.
 
I think the POD would be because of the Republican platform. Like has been noted above he didn't campaign. But his adherents did. And at the time the Republicans were a wild coalition. They had suffragists, know-nothings and all kinds of other zanies in there.

Two big poisonous issues for Lincoln. Anti Immigration and very high tariffs for public works. If his adherents push issues like suffrage, anti immigration and high taxes Lincoln would loose lots of support. He would forgo MA and NY on both those issues. sufferage might cost support in other marginal areas. On the Immigration issue he would defintily loose CA and OR in addition to MA and NY.

Taxes are never popular at election time. Between elections there are always folks who want to spend more money, but at election time, there are not. These things could easily cost Lincoln four or five states which we could give to Breckinridge.


The Republican Party already supported high tarriffs. They were popular with most northerners because they helped protect developing Northern Industries. Suffrage was a fringe movement in 1860 and its unlikely that it would be included in the Republican platform.
 
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