An Affair of States: Breckenridge Wins

Alright, alright, this is start #3. But this is for realz this time. The POD is fixed now, and I had Lincoln come down with a cold in the middle of his campaign.Tis is my first real TL, so I would appreciate it if some feedback could be given.

An Affair of States
A Breckenridge Victory Timeline
By Hannibal Glass
446px-John_C_Breckinridge-04775-restored.jpg


Part One: Iron
Chapter One: 1860 Elections
Prologue
Many prominent historians speculate about what would have happened if Abraham Lincoln or John Bell had managed to claw their way to the top in 1860. In fact, prominent alternate history writer Harry Turtledove wrote an amazing series of books, detailing Abraham Lincoln's election, the subsequent splintering of the North and South, and a brutal Civil War that followed. The University of Greater Kansas has created a history of the North American continent, starting from a major divergence point that has fascinated historians and alt-historians alike for decades: the 1860 Presidential elections.

The Election of Breckenridge
To the recently-founded Southern Democrats, Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln seemed a weakling, but one who had a distinct advantage: the divisions between the hard-line, pro-slavery Southern Democrats and the more moderate, liberal Northern Democrats. This split caused a weakening of the Democratic power base, allowing Lincoln to pull into first place, with Bell at a second place. However, during a speech, Lincoln caught a nasty cold that had him bedridden for a good half of his own campaign. Lincoln had been he forerunner, but without the man himself to give speeches and lead meetings, the rudderless Republican Party began to fall behind in the polls. The North turned into a slugfest between the Norther Democrats and the Constitutional Union Party that let Southern Democrat John C. Breckenridge take control of the polls in the south and win the Presidency.

moddedmap2.png
A map of the 1860 elections by electoral vote.

Breckenridge managed to keep the states he had taken from Bell and the Constitutional Union Party long enough to win the White House. His victory in Delaware and Maryland were both partly credited to incumbent President James Buchanan, who had been supporting Breckenridge's campaign. This is not at all surprising, considering that Breckenridge was the incumbent Vice President at the time.

james-buchanan.jpg

Incumbent President James Buchanan. Buchanan was a major supporter of Breckenridge's campaign. Without of his help, many people think that Breckenridge would have lost Delaware and Maryland.


On Election Day in November 1860, the quadrennial election cycle was completed for the 16th time. The Electoral College's votes were counted, and Breckenridge was declared winner by a tiny margin. When the news arrived, Abraham Lincoln, having recovered from his illness, was reported to have simply shaken his head and proclaimed, "A house divided cannot stand," probably a reference to the major splits occurring within the former Whig and Democrat parties, as well as the cultural and political seam widening over the Mason-Dixon line. Breckenridge's administration did nothing to bridge the gap; When events such as the Jayhawker Uprisings or the Californian Crisis came about, opportunities for reconciliation were lost in Breckenridge's single term. The Union's days were numbered.

moddedmap2.png
 
Last edited:

Wolfpaw

Banned
What? How did Bell win Illinois :confused:

And not a single county voted for Douglas in PA. If any Democrat is going to win it, it'll be Breckenridge. Nor do I understand why New Hampshire has decided to support Douglas, either.

I just noticed Bell also seems to have won New York, Vermont, and Massachusetts, which was possibly the most hardcore Republican state of them all. In OTL, Bell didn't even break the 2,000 vote threshold in Vermont, and while his performance in Massachusetts was more impressive, it was still only 13% of the MA vote. As for New York, Bell wasn't even on the ballot.
 
Last edited:
Part One
Chapter Two: Pride, Prejudice, and Philadelphia


attachment.php

The cover of a Maryland newspaper published on 4 December 1860, following Breckenridge's cabinet announcement.

The New Cabinet
With the election over, Breckenridge began focusing on refining his image to Northerners. The main way he did it was through his cabinet choices. Several of his cabinet were from above the Mason-Dixon line, notably Secretary of State Samuel Dickinson, a rarity: a Southern Democrat from New York. During the election, Dickinson ran for the Southern Democratic ticket in opposition to Breckenridge. Despite handily smashing Dickinson in the primaries, Breckenridge immediately took him on as Secy of State after he won the election.

While the cabinet was dominated by Southern Democrats, a pair of outriders were invited into the President-Elect's office. For instance, Secretary of the Treasury James Guthrie of Kentucky was offered the job, despite his status as a Northern Democrat. Even more unusual was the invitation of Edward Bates of Missouri to become Secy of Commerce. The unusual thing was, Bates was a Republican. Breckenridge may have been trying to patch up the split between North and South, but many saw this as simply either a joke or an attempt to curry favor.


List of prominent Cabinet Members of the Breckenridge administration:
-Vice President Joseph Lane
-Secretary of State Daniel Dickinson
-Secretary of Treasury James Guthrie
-Secretary of Commerce Edward Bates
-Secretary of War Jefferson Davis
-Secretary of the Interior Lewis Cass


The Philadelphia Conference
Following their devastating loss in the elections, the Republicans convened in New York to consilidate their efforts. Coming along were several high-ranking members of the Constitutional Union Party, including former Presidential candidate John Bell. The leadership of the two parties came to an agreement-- That feuds between liberal parties were less important than taking back the White House from Breckenridge in 1864. Both parties agreed to a temporary “Coalition” party to strengthen the opposition against Breckenridge and, currently, Buchanan. Despite dissenting cries from more radical Republicans like William H. Seward, the issue of slavery was to be phased out by the Coalition Party leadership. On March 3rd, the formation of the Coalition Party was officially announced.
 

Jasen777

Donor
The only way I can see Breckenridge winning (post-democratic split) is if Bell is gone (or does much worse so Breckenridge can get his states) and Douglas does better in the North against Lincoln so that it gets thrown to the House where Breckenridge cuts some sort of deal with Douglas and slips in.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The only way I can see Breckenridge winning (post-democratic split) is if Bell is gone (or does much worse so Breckenridge can get his states) and Douglas does better in the North against Lincoln so that it gets thrown to the House where Breckenridge cuts some sort of deal with Douglas and slips in.
Douglas would have to get a pretty nice cherry; he knew '60 was his last shot, and the money spent on his (numerous) political and social ventures was steering him perilously close to bankruptcy. For Douglas, the election literally was "The White House or Bust."
 
How about another 'corrupt bargain' or something similar. I mean, perhaps Douglas could take away as many states away from Lincoln just so Breckenridge could get in.....i guess, in some way make a whole unified Democratic ticket, with Douglas somehow getting in on the cabinet, perhaps?
 
Why would Lincoln getting sick have such an effect on the election? Presidential candidates didn't campaign for themselves in those days. Lincoln and the other candidates except for Douglass didn't make speeches or lead meetings. They just stayed at home. Also, why would the decline help Breckinridge carry Tennesee, Virginia and Missouri. Lincoln had little support in those states and the state of his campaign should make no difference in who carries those states and in otl Breckingridge came in third in Missouri. Breckinridge wasn't even on the ballot in New Jersey, he and Bell ran on a fusion ticket with Douglass. OTL Lincoln lead Breckinridge by over a 100 electoral votes.
 
OTL, the states that Breckenridge lost that he came closest to winning:

Virginia -- 0.1% behind Bell -- 15 EV
Oregon -- 1.7% behind Lincoln -- 3 EV
Tennessee -- 3.1% behind Bell -- 12 EV
California -- 3.9% behind Lincoln and 3.3% behind Douglas -- 4 EV
Kentucky -- 8.8% behind Bell -- 12 EV

With a strength-of-campaign POD, similar to the POD you used, he could certainly pick up VA and OR, and could conceivably pick up TN and CA. KY would be a pretty big stretch. But even with all five of these states plus his OTL states, Breckenridge would still only have 118 EV, well short of the 152 needed.

-------------------

Throwing the election to the House as suggested by others wouldn't work. At this point (pre-20th amendment), it's still the old lame duck House that elected the President if there's no majority in the Electoral College. Only the top three candidates in electoral votes are eligible, and the House votes by state delegations.

In the lame duck House of the 36th Congress, the likely outcome of a contingent election is as follows:

  • 16 state delegations (CT, IN, IO, KS, ME, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VT, WI) have Republican majorities in their and would almost certainly vote for Lincoln.
  • 10 delegations in slave states (AL, AR, DE, FL, GA, LA, MS, MO, SC, VA) have majority Democratic delegations in, which seem likely to vote for Breckenridge. (CA)'s delegation is made up of pro-slavery Democrats, so is likely to vote for Breckenridge as well.
  • 2 state delegations (IL, OR) have majority Democrat delegations that seem likely to vote for Douglas if he's in the top three in electoral votes.
  • 4 state delegations (KY, MD, NC, TX) are evenly split between Southern Democrats and a mix of Southern Whigs splinter parties (Oppositionists and "Independent Democrats") and Know-Nothings. Since the latter parties had merged behind Bell's candidacy, the states are likely to be deadlocked between Bell and Breckenridge if both are in the top three.
  • One state (TN) has a majority Oppositionist delegation and will likely vote for Bell if he makes the top three.
There are 33-34 states (Kansas being admitted in January 1860, after the November election but before the House would vote), so a majority requires 17 without KS or 18 with KS. Either way, Lincoln would be two states short.

If Douglas comes in fourth in the electoral vote as per OTL, IL and OR at least are likely to vote for Lincoln eventually: IL's delegation is 5-4 Democratic, so only one of the five IL Democrats would have to decide to pick sectional interests over his (divided) party to back Lincoln over Breckenridge, and OR's lone Representative (Lansing Stout) had been given the boot by his state party at the instigation of Joseph Lane (an Oregon Senator and Breckenridge's running mate) and OTL was later elected to the state legislature as a Republican.

If the POD leads to Douglas coming in ahead of Bell in the Electoral college, I'd expect most Oppositionists, Independent Democrats, and Know-Nothings from slave states to vote for Breckenridge, leaving Lincoln with 15-16 states, Breckenridge with 16, and Douglas with 2, and as with the other scenario, Douglas's supporters in his two state delegations strike me as far more likely to break for Lincoln than for Breckenridge.

Breckenridge's only plausible path to victory in the House would be for butterflies to delay Kansas's admission until too late for their representative to take part in the election (so a majority is 17 rather than 18), and somehow get all five of IL's Democrats to choose Breckenridge over Lincoln (Douglas's personal intervention on behalf of Breckenridge, fearing a Lincoln victory would split the union?).

-----------------

Keeping Bell out of the race wouldn't do the trick, either. Even if all of Bell's supporters voted for Breckenridge instead, and Breckenridge ran a few percent better than OTL due to being able to better focus his campaign resources, that would only gives Breckenridge Bell's states (39 EV) plus Missouri (9 EV), California (4 EV), and Oregon (3 EV), for a total (with Breckenridge's OTL states) of 127 EV out of the 152 needed for a majority.

-----------------

For Breckenridge to win an outright majority in the electoral college would require multiple PODs. If every single one of Bell's and Douglas's supporters had voted for Breckenridge, Lincoln would still have gotten 169 EV.

Weakening Lincoln's campaign alone wouldn't do the trick, either. In just about all the states were Lincoln won an absolute majority, weakening Lincoln's campaign would either have no effect (because Lincoln carried the state by such a convincing margin OTL) or swing the state to Douglas (the OTL runner-up in every such state except Pennsylvania).

My suggestion for an electoral victory for Breckenridge would be to somehow keep Bell out of the race, and also hit Lincoln with a major personal scandal during the campaign, enough to swing Pennsylvania to Breckenridge (where he lost OTL to Lincoln by 18.8%). For good measure, also consider accelerating Douglas's OTL death to before the election.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
However, during a speech, Lincoln caught a nasty cold that had him bedridden for a good half of his own campaign. Lincoln had been he forerunner, but without the man himself to give speeches and lead meetings, the rudderless Republican Party began to fall behind in the polls.

This won't work. Lincoln didn't give a single speech during the 1860 campaign (party candidates did not actively campaign in the mid-19th Century in the manner they do today). All he did was send telegrams and write letters, which he would have been able to do even with a "nasty cold."
 
This won't work. Lincoln didn't give a single speech during the 1860 campaign (party candidates did not actively campaign in the mid-19th Century in the manner they do today). All he did was send telegrams and write letters, which he would have been able to do even with a "nasty cold."

Pneaumonia would work though.
 
Without the horrible POD, do you guys want me to keep writing this? Cos I have some more ideas tucked away if the POD is so bad that it doesn't deserve a TL.
 
In the other direction...

Does anyone have any suggestions for a good Fremont wins in 1856 TL? (Actually, I'd love to find a 1856 goes to the house and Fremont loses TL...)
 
You could perhaps have Lincoln come down with a fatal (or potentially fatal) disease. If word got out that Lincoln was dying, that might dissuade people from voting for him.
 
Could a more radical republican candidate have allowed Douglas to win some states. enough to deny Lincoln an electoral majorit ybut not enough to put him ahead of Breckinridge
 
You could perhaps have Lincoln come down with a fatal (or potentially fatal) disease. If word got out that Lincoln was dying, that might dissuade people from voting for him.


Why would Lincoln dying affect anyone's vote? If Lincoln died, then Hamblin would take office. It wouldn't make any difference either way to most voters.
 
Without the horrible POD, do you guys want me to keep writing this? Cos I have some more ideas tucked away if the POD is so bad that it doesn't deserve a TL.

I'm very interested in seeing where you're going with this. Please keep going.
 
Top