Still don't see it. He alone can't break the two term limit. (And TEDDY!)
America's Silver Era, The Story of William Jennings Bryan
- Thread starter CELTICEMPIRE
- Start date
Still don't see it. He alone can't break the two term limit. (And TEDDY!)
As much as I hate to say this, it might be December before I post another chapter. All the things I have postponed since October have caught up with me.
Nevertheless, the election of 1904 will probably be split up into three chapters. There's a lot going on.
Nevertheless, the election of 1904 will probably be split up into three chapters. There's a lot going on.
As long as you post it I'll be happy. I think we can wait a week or two
For what its worth I have at least half of the chapter on the Republican Convention already written.
It's pretty hard to see how that's plausible. I'm not sure how seriously you take realignment theory but the dominance of the Republican party from 1860 to 1932 is undeniable. The only thing that made Democrats marginally competitive during this era was the crutch of disenfranchisement, as sell as the fact they still got congressional representation for the supressed black voters. Even Woodrow Wilson had to rely on a divided Republican party to get elected, and he bareley passed 40% of the popular vote. A foreshadower to FDR sure, but considering how narrowly he won twice he can't do too much given the constraints of his time period.
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Perhaps, although compared to Cleveland and Wilson, Brian hasn't utterly disgraced himself, and honestly, I find myself skeptical about the 1893 depression lasting as long as this timeline says, so the economy really should be okay by now, not least thanks to Brian's more activist approach. He'll need a lucky break or two, but I think he could at least swing a third term, especially if the Republicans are divided or blunder.
As for realignment theory, I don't buy it. Party dominance can swing fast, like when the Republicans nearly got three terms in a row during the "peak" of the New Deal era. Meanwhile, this era IOTL was marked by a bunch of close elections in the 1870's and 80's, and then Grover Cleveland presiding over a massive recession that put Republicans in the driver's seat for a while before collapsing under their own weight again, and then getting rescued by another failed Democrat. Not the stuff Good Feelings-esque dominance is made of.
This is a pretty common misconception, but measuring the strenth of a political regime by how many elections are won is only half of the equation.
The other half is just how much the weaker party has to compromise to remain viable. Let us not forget that Eisenhower was and remains reviled by the "true conservatives", because he was never truly one of them and could have fit in with either party. Nixon chipped away at the edges with the southern strategy but remained firmly welded to keynesianism. The one time Republicans nominated a true ideologue (Goldwater), instead of a technocrat (Eisenhower), or a culture warrior (Nixon) they suffered their most devestating defeat of the New Deal era.
Honestly, I think that's putting the cart before the horse, and mistaking ideological heterogeneity for compromise. The reason that that error could happen is because the parties have only really been consistently ideologically sorted twice, at most. In the 1850's, and today. Otherwise, they may have varied at one time or another, but both fit into a relatively narrow band of consensus for the time, and that gets mistaken for one party dominating, and thereby imposing its views on the other. If the Republican party of the 50's and 60's were so submissive not to New Deal liberalism, which crossed parties, but specifically to the Democratic Party, then nothing like McCarthyism, which disproportionately hit the allegedly dominant party, would have been allowed on partisan grounds. Hell, McCarthy was stopped when he started attacking Republicans, not Democrats, which if anything makes the former seem dominant ideologically and electorally.
Besides, we were talking about the ability of a Democrat, specifically Bryan, to win the presidency a third time. In that context, how many elections were won historically sounds like a pretty good benchmark, no?
Eh, I'm not overly interested in continuing the digression.
And I did mention that some lucky breaks along the lines of those two would be useful, just that it's within the realm of possibility. The White House switching Parties after two elections has only really been a pattern for the last 50 years or so, and even then not really, between 1988 and super-close elections in 1960, 1976, 2000, and 2016.
I guess I didn't explain what was going on with the economy very well (I'm not particularly good with economics, I must admit. This and military logistics are my main weak areas in Alternate History writing).
Bimetallism, established in 1897 TTL and made official later in Bryan's first term, initially was bad for the economy (especially urban areas). This lengthened the economic crisis (1893-1897 and 1899 to 1903 could be seen as two separate crises, the second one much more mild than the first). However, by 1903 the economy went back to normal.
As far as Republican dominance during this time, I'd say that it was actually McKinley and Roosevelt who established it. Most of the elections from after the Civil War until the 1890s were close. Let's look at the popular vote winners (Party and margin of victory):
1868: GOP 5%
1872: GOP 12%
1876: Dem 3%
1880: GOP <0.1%
1884: Dem <1%
1888: Dem <1%
1892: Dem 3%
Then compare that to the landslides that Republicans saw during the early 20th century, only interrupted by Woodrow Wilson. Sure, in the post-Civil War era the GOP was the dominant party, but it wasn't until McKinley that the party became almost unstoppable.
Bimetallism, established in 1897 TTL and made official later in Bryan's first term, initially was bad for the economy (especially urban areas). This lengthened the economic crisis (1893-1897 and 1899 to 1903 could be seen as two separate crises, the second one much more mild than the first). However, by 1903 the economy went back to normal.
As far as Republican dominance during this time, I'd say that it was actually McKinley and Roosevelt who established it. Most of the elections from after the Civil War until the 1890s were close. Let's look at the popular vote winners (Party and margin of victory):
1868: GOP 5%
1872: GOP 12%
1876: Dem 3%
1880: GOP <0.1%
1884: Dem <1%
1888: Dem <1%
1892: Dem 3%
Then compare that to the landslides that Republicans saw during the early 20th century, only interrupted by Woodrow Wilson. Sure, in the post-Civil War era the GOP was the dominant party, but it wasn't until McKinley that the party became almost unstoppable.
Chapter X, Chicago
As Bryan announced his intention to run for a third term, he received relentless criticism. He was mockingly dubbed “King William” by many in the Republican Party, which was holding its convention in Chicago that June, a week before the Democratic National Convention in St. Louis. And it was clear, at least to most serious observers, that either Mark Hanna of Ohio or Matthew Quay of Pennsylvania would be the nominee. Hanna was slightly favored over Quay. And it was general consensus that the winner of the two would choose the other as his running mate. The winner would campaign on the Gold Standard, protectionism, and a more active foreign policy. Minor candidates included Representative Robert La Follette of Wisconsin, Representative Elihu Root of New York, Senator (and war hero) Leonard Wood of New Hampshire, and Senator Henry Cabot Lodge of Massachusetts, along with a scattering of favorite sons.
(Left: Mark Hanna, Right: Matthew Quay)
But things did not go according to plan. A few months before the convention, Mark Hanna died. And a few days before the convention, Matthew Quay died. Thus, when the delegates met in Chicago, they had no idea who they were going to vote for. So the remaining candidates each gave their speeches, eager to impress the delegates. Most of the candidates’ speeches had common themes; “King William” was a lousy President, the Gold Standard must be reestablished, higher tariffs are needed, and America needs to expand its influence across the globe. Occasionally there was mention of defending the rights of African-Americans in the South. Then, Representative Robert La Follette took the stage. He was not much concerned with issues like Gold and Silver; instead he talked about the need for progressive reform. He made an appeal to the worker, many of whom still felt that Bryan’s policies were not helping. And he stood out as a firm opponent of imperialism.
The Western delegates loved him. However, many of the Eastern delegates saw him as the equivalent of the President they hated. And a large number of the Northeastern delegates vowed to never vote for La Follette. However, some Northeastern politicians such as New York Representative Theodore Roosevelt supported his campaign. The 1904 Republican convention saw the beginnings of a split in the party that would last into the 1930s. There were those who made peace with the fact that the Gold Standard was dead (the position of the average American) and there were those who would “never surrender to silver.” And at the 1904 Convention, the compromisers won. It must be noted, that most of the compromisers supported an eventual return to the Gold Standard, but when the public was ready for it. Robert La Follette was nominated for President and former Connecticut Governor Morgan G. Bulkely was selected as Vice President.
(Left: Robert M. La Follette, Right: Morgan G. Bulkely)
Meanwhile, the frustrated diehard Gold Standard Republicans held a convention in Boston two weeks later. There they nominated Henry Cabot Lodge for President and Senator Joseph B. Foraker of Ohio for Vice President. They called this ticket the “Independent Republican” ticket. The ticket had mostly regional appeal, with very few supporters west of the Mississippi. The goal was not to win the election outright, which would be nearly impossible. Rather, the Independent Republican ticket sought to prevent La Follette from gaining an electoral majority. After this was achieved, Lodge hoped that the House of Representatives (which had an, albeit narrow, Republican majority) would give him the Presidency. The last (and only) time that the House had selected the President was 80 years earlier in 1824. The majority of the states Lodge contested were unlikely to be carried by Bryan, so it would be hard to accuse him of trying to hand the election over to the Democrats.
-Excerpt from Fighting Bob, Sumner Sewall, Howard Publishing Co., 1951.
(Left: Henry Cabot Lodge, Right: Joseph B. Foraker)
In 1904, America was horrified by the news of a train accident in Colorado. In a way, that accident served as a metaphor for the 1904 election. The Republican convention was a disaster, and only the first part of a much larger train wreck that was that year’s Presidential Election. While Democrats gleefully cheered as the Republicans fought each other at Chicago, they knew that St. Louis was not likely to be much more peaceful. For, Bryan’s announcement didn’t quell the ambitions of those Democrats who thought it was their turn to carry the party to victory.
-Excerpt from America's Silver Age, Edward S. Scott, Patriot Publishers, 2017.
(Left: Mark Hanna, Right: Matthew Quay)
But things did not go according to plan. A few months before the convention, Mark Hanna died. And a few days before the convention, Matthew Quay died. Thus, when the delegates met in Chicago, they had no idea who they were going to vote for. So the remaining candidates each gave their speeches, eager to impress the delegates. Most of the candidates’ speeches had common themes; “King William” was a lousy President, the Gold Standard must be reestablished, higher tariffs are needed, and America needs to expand its influence across the globe. Occasionally there was mention of defending the rights of African-Americans in the South. Then, Representative Robert La Follette took the stage. He was not much concerned with issues like Gold and Silver; instead he talked about the need for progressive reform. He made an appeal to the worker, many of whom still felt that Bryan’s policies were not helping. And he stood out as a firm opponent of imperialism.
The Western delegates loved him. However, many of the Eastern delegates saw him as the equivalent of the President they hated. And a large number of the Northeastern delegates vowed to never vote for La Follette. However, some Northeastern politicians such as New York Representative Theodore Roosevelt supported his campaign. The 1904 Republican convention saw the beginnings of a split in the party that would last into the 1930s. There were those who made peace with the fact that the Gold Standard was dead (the position of the average American) and there were those who would “never surrender to silver.” And at the 1904 Convention, the compromisers won. It must be noted, that most of the compromisers supported an eventual return to the Gold Standard, but when the public was ready for it. Robert La Follette was nominated for President and former Connecticut Governor Morgan G. Bulkely was selected as Vice President.
(Left: Robert M. La Follette, Right: Morgan G. Bulkely)
Meanwhile, the frustrated diehard Gold Standard Republicans held a convention in Boston two weeks later. There they nominated Henry Cabot Lodge for President and Senator Joseph B. Foraker of Ohio for Vice President. They called this ticket the “Independent Republican” ticket. The ticket had mostly regional appeal, with very few supporters west of the Mississippi. The goal was not to win the election outright, which would be nearly impossible. Rather, the Independent Republican ticket sought to prevent La Follette from gaining an electoral majority. After this was achieved, Lodge hoped that the House of Representatives (which had an, albeit narrow, Republican majority) would give him the Presidency. The last (and only) time that the House had selected the President was 80 years earlier in 1824. The majority of the states Lodge contested were unlikely to be carried by Bryan, so it would be hard to accuse him of trying to hand the election over to the Democrats.
-Excerpt from Fighting Bob, Sumner Sewall, Howard Publishing Co., 1951.
(Left: Henry Cabot Lodge, Right: Joseph B. Foraker)
In 1904, America was horrified by the news of a train accident in Colorado. In a way, that accident served as a metaphor for the 1904 election. The Republican convention was a disaster, and only the first part of a much larger train wreck that was that year’s Presidential Election. While Democrats gleefully cheered as the Republicans fought each other at Chicago, they knew that St. Louis was not likely to be much more peaceful. For, Bryan’s announcement didn’t quell the ambitions of those Democrats who thought it was their turn to carry the party to victory.
-Excerpt from America's Silver Age, Edward S. Scott, Patriot Publishers, 2017.
Chapter XI, St. Louis
William Jennings Bryan got on the stage at the Democratic National Convention in St. Louis and gave one of his trademark speeches. He defended his legacy as President; he condemned the imperialists and accused them of trying to drag America into wars in faraway lands. He then called for new reforms, direct election of senators, women’s suffrage, and a variety of programs to help bring rural America out of isolation and poverty. He also boasted that his administration had broken up more monopolies than any others, most recently that of Standard Oil. While some were excited by Bryan’s speech, others were not. Some delegates resented the growing power of rural Westerners in the Democratic Party and were hopeful that the party would return to its rightful owners, the eastern elites, after Bryan was done. A larger group appreciated what Bryan did but felt that his time was up and he should let new voices carry on the cause of reform.
The other candidates included Senator Ben Tillman of South Carolina, Maryland Governor John W. Smith, Representative Charles A. Towne of Minnesota, Senator William A. Harris of Kansas, and former Admiral George Dewey of Vermont. On the first ballot, no candidate received a majority, though Bryan had the most votes. Eventually, the anti-Bryan (or more accurately, those opposed to a third term for Bryan) delegates coalesced around George Dewey. Dewey was popular for his role as admiral during the Cuban War. Dewey campaigned as a moderate, palatable to both progressives and conservatives in the party. After seeing that Bryan was not going to get a majority, some of the delegates ditched the President and were welcomed in the Dewey camp. George Dewey won the Democratic nomination for President and John W. Smith was selected as Vice President.
(Left: George Dewey, Right: John W. Smith)
For most observers, it looked like Bryan’s political career was effectively over, though few thought that an ex-President Bryan would completely retire from politics. Dewey reportedly planned on making him ambassador to China in order to keep him from causing trouble back home. It seemed that Dewey would slide to victory as the Republican vote was divided. The papers in the Northeast gleefully celebrated Bryan’s defeat at the Democratic Convention. People began to count down the days until Bryan would leave office. Some were even planning celebrations for that day. In Nebraska, people were saddened by the events at the Convention, but then went along with their lives. However, most of the opponents and the supporters of President Bryan neglected to anticipate one thing. The President himself was already making plans for his post-Presidency when he received news that some say changed the course of American history.
The Peoples’ Party (or the Populist Part as it was commonly known) was a once powerful alternative to the Republicans and Democrats. Founded in 1891, it helped popularize the issues of Bimetallism and its supporters were often poor farmers. In 1892 the Populist Party’s Presidential nominee, James B. Weaver, won over 8% of the popular vote along with the states of Kansas, Colorado, North Dakota, Idaho, and Nevada. In 1896, the Party endorsed William Jennings Bryan and faded into irrelevancy, with most of their elected officials joining the Democratic Party. Bryan promoted some party members to cabinet positions. In 1900, the Party once again endorsed the Democratic ticket. By 1904 it had few elected officials and was considered irrelevant. Thus, their convention in Birmingham, Alabama was sparsely attended and covered mostly by the local papers rather than national ones.
In Birmingham, the delegates overwhelmingly refused to endorse George Dewey. They considered running one of their own candidates but instead opted for a much more opportunistic move. They decided to nominate the sitting President of the United States of America. Some historians say that Milford Howard, a party member himself, sent people to the convention to promote President Bryan as the nominee. The delegates selected Thomas Watson, a Senator from Georgia, as his running mate. Watson had been the party’s Vice Presidential nomination in 1896, as an alternate to Arthur Sewall. However, by the time the Electoral College convened most of the electors rallied behind Bryan’s official running mate. The news came as a shock to Bryan, who quickly accepted the nomination and was happy to be back in the race, and to Dewey, whose chances of victory fell significantly as a result. With both the Republicans and the Democrats were divided, the election of 1904 would be bitter and chaotic.
(Left: William Jennings Bryan, Right: Thomas Watson)
-Excerpt from The Guide to the Executive Mansion, an in Depth Look at America's Presidents by Benjamin Buckley, Harvard Press, 1999.
The other candidates included Senator Ben Tillman of South Carolina, Maryland Governor John W. Smith, Representative Charles A. Towne of Minnesota, Senator William A. Harris of Kansas, and former Admiral George Dewey of Vermont. On the first ballot, no candidate received a majority, though Bryan had the most votes. Eventually, the anti-Bryan (or more accurately, those opposed to a third term for Bryan) delegates coalesced around George Dewey. Dewey was popular for his role as admiral during the Cuban War. Dewey campaigned as a moderate, palatable to both progressives and conservatives in the party. After seeing that Bryan was not going to get a majority, some of the delegates ditched the President and were welcomed in the Dewey camp. George Dewey won the Democratic nomination for President and John W. Smith was selected as Vice President.
(Left: George Dewey, Right: John W. Smith)
For most observers, it looked like Bryan’s political career was effectively over, though few thought that an ex-President Bryan would completely retire from politics. Dewey reportedly planned on making him ambassador to China in order to keep him from causing trouble back home. It seemed that Dewey would slide to victory as the Republican vote was divided. The papers in the Northeast gleefully celebrated Bryan’s defeat at the Democratic Convention. People began to count down the days until Bryan would leave office. Some were even planning celebrations for that day. In Nebraska, people were saddened by the events at the Convention, but then went along with their lives. However, most of the opponents and the supporters of President Bryan neglected to anticipate one thing. The President himself was already making plans for his post-Presidency when he received news that some say changed the course of American history.
The Peoples’ Party (or the Populist Part as it was commonly known) was a once powerful alternative to the Republicans and Democrats. Founded in 1891, it helped popularize the issues of Bimetallism and its supporters were often poor farmers. In 1892 the Populist Party’s Presidential nominee, James B. Weaver, won over 8% of the popular vote along with the states of Kansas, Colorado, North Dakota, Idaho, and Nevada. In 1896, the Party endorsed William Jennings Bryan and faded into irrelevancy, with most of their elected officials joining the Democratic Party. Bryan promoted some party members to cabinet positions. In 1900, the Party once again endorsed the Democratic ticket. By 1904 it had few elected officials and was considered irrelevant. Thus, their convention in Birmingham, Alabama was sparsely attended and covered mostly by the local papers rather than national ones.
In Birmingham, the delegates overwhelmingly refused to endorse George Dewey. They considered running one of their own candidates but instead opted for a much more opportunistic move. They decided to nominate the sitting President of the United States of America. Some historians say that Milford Howard, a party member himself, sent people to the convention to promote President Bryan as the nominee. The delegates selected Thomas Watson, a Senator from Georgia, as his running mate. Watson had been the party’s Vice Presidential nomination in 1896, as an alternate to Arthur Sewall. However, by the time the Electoral College convened most of the electors rallied behind Bryan’s official running mate. The news came as a shock to Bryan, who quickly accepted the nomination and was happy to be back in the race, and to Dewey, whose chances of victory fell significantly as a result. With both the Republicans and the Democrats were divided, the election of 1904 would be bitter and chaotic.
(Left: William Jennings Bryan, Right: Thomas Watson)
Good God. I can’t believe this turned into a four-way race. I really don’t know if Bryan will win his third term, but he could rise above the rest with his popularity and the power of incumbency. It’s more likely that this will all be decided in the House, and I don’t know what happens then.
Well, I've calculated the popular vote results in 25 of the 45.
Edit: it was 45 not 50 states back then.
Edit: it was 45 not 50 states back then.
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Finished with all 45 states, popular vote by state, popular vote by region, and total popular vote for each candidate.
My observances on the election as it stands now -
- Bryan is really going to struggle, as he is going to face the many of the same difficulties that Theodore Roosevelt faced historically in 1912, more so in this case to some extent. While there may indeed be some measure of political infrastructure left of the People's Party I'd imagine it would almost wholly be in the Prairie West, and there and elsewhere Bryan's strength would be greatly dependent on defections. The problem is that I can't see many of these defections occurring, again using the example of Roosevelt's Progressive effort, where the vast majority of those formally favorable to Roosevelt prior to the Republican Convention balked at the idea of walking away from the Republican Party, either out of a sense of loyalty or because they did not wish to risk their political careers. Without such support building additional infrastructure will be difficult, and I have my doubts that Bryan would have nearly the same level of financial backing Roosevelt was able to muster. Then there is the combination of the third-term issue, which while not universally held has historically proven significant and will definitely hurt Bryan, and the fact that he has now bucked the Democratic Party after having lost its nomination in what could be considered a fair contest, which may prove even more damaging. Inroads can also easily be made by La Follette into what would be Bryan's natural constituencies for the aforementioned reasons among others so, even Bryan may not have a lock on the Prairie West. He might net between 35 to 50 electoral votes, and I'd tend to the former in this case unless La Follette does especially poorly.
- The Lodge/Foraker Independent Republican ticket will perform in a very similar fashion to the National Democratic ticket of Palmer/Buckner in the OTL 1896 election, for a variety of reasons. While some Republican officials certainly would offer some measure of support it would remain discreet, and in an era where straight-ticket voting was very much a thing it could be very dangerous for those candidacies further down the ballot who would not be counted on a "Independent Republican" straight ticket. That isn't to say there is no constituency present for Lodge, there is, but as the weeks and months pass they more likely then not will opt to either back La Follette or Dewey, especially if loyalist Gold Republicans and Democrats toss in the "A Vote For Lodge Is A Vote For Bryan" card, hinting he might get elected in the House; a similar tactic used to turn people away from Bob La Follette in 1924, claiming that the Democratic Senate would put Charles Bryan in charge and they along with Progressive Republicans would purposely deadlock the House. They may get one or two percent of the vote, but they ultimately would not have much of an effect on the election.
- Despite many Bryanites walking out with their standard-bearer, George Dewey is actually in the strongest position of the three, if barely. The old Confederacy is a lock for him, which by itself makes up 120 of the 238 electoral votes he needs, and he'd probably be within spitting distance of attaining the Upper South which would put him at 169. From there it is both easy and tricky, as it is dependent on how appealing Dewey would be to Gold Standard types versus La Follette, and the kind of pull Bryan will have among traditional Democrats. Ohio and Indiana seem like sure targets in the Midwest which would bring Dewey to 207, and from there they'd need to carry either Illinois or New York to attain a majority; New Jersey might fall into their column as well, but without Ohio and at least one of Illinois or New York Dewey cannot win.
- As with the Democrats, the bolt by some Gold Standard Republicans does not immediately cause serious injury to La Follette's campaign, most remaining loyal and the majority of the big-money candidates probably having rallied around his campaign at this point if not Dewey, but he may have to assuage some of their concerns if he doesn't want to lose them to Dewey and risk having states like New York or Ohio fall into the Democratic camp. In light of that I'd put La Follette's core base around the area of Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New England, for a total of 137 electors, again dependent on how attractive Dewey is to any Republicans that might feel alienated from La Follette. With some effort though it isn't hard to see La Follette secure the Pacific West against Dewey, maybe Bryan in the case of Oregon, as well as Illinois and New York, putting him at 222 electors. From there the lynch-pin as always is Ohio, though he could get by with a combination of New Jersey and some other States such as Idaho and Wyoming, or Kansas, or Colorado.
- Inevitably this election is going to go to the House; I can already see it as in most of the scenarios I've gamed out for the election as presented (35 to 50 electors provides a sizable cushion for Bryan here), it is going to happen unless either the Republican or Democratic ticket does quite well, and I imagine most readers here want it to go to the House. Now again this is an era of straight-ticket voting, and the People's Party and Democratic Party are in most cases probably going to be running candidates against one another; the same may be the case with the Republican and Independent Republican Parties but I doubt the number of effected contests would be nearly as many nor as injurious. A number of fusion candidacies may be formed certainly, but there will also be quite a bit of bad blood, and by this point an ever increasing number of States had made such joint nominations impossible. The end result is that in the Congressional elections the Republicans stand to perform rather well and will both maintain their majority as well as expand it, giving La Follette the seeming advantage going into the House election. That said there will be a number of States controlled by Gold Republican delegations, or they may be in position to swing key delegations, so as always the question is how much a Dewey Presidency would appeal to them versus a La Follette Presidency. However Dewey may have to depend on any existing Bryanite bloc breaking his way, and that is far from guaranteed, though he can be secure in knowing the South won't break for Bryan. Depending on who is in control of the Senate, that might mean Acting President Smith or Bulkely for several days as these matters are worked out.