Americans with Immunities

So I'm brainstorming for a timeline about what would happen if, for one reason or another, Native Americans (or American Indians, or Amerindians, or Indios, or whatever you want to call them) possessed the same immunities as Europeans, Asians, and Africans.
In my opinion, the real question is not how it would come to be, but what would happen because of the change. Since neither the Spanish or the NAs knew this could/would be a weapon, I say that it's worth the leap to say...what if?

Here's what I have so far. Please let me know what you think, and if I missed anything important:
The first (recorded) smallpox outbreak in the Caribbean was in 1518. That's the POD. In 1518, the Spanish had taken Hispaniola, Panama, and Puerto Rico. They had heard of both the Mexica (Aztec) and Incan Empires (I don't know if they had heard of the Maya yet, if anyone knows, please tell me), and in Spain there was already a thirst for free American gold (Rumors of nuggets as big as eggs floating in rivers was already commonplace at this time).

My initial thought was that the Tainos would overthrow the Spanish in Hispaniola, but by 1511 there were already only 60K left, so although they did mount rebellions in the 1520s, it seems to me unlikely that even with some more people they would be able to overthrow the Spanish by themselves. Spain had already gotten a foothold. It also seems unlikely to me that the Mexica would help. Not sure exactly why, just a hunch. There were other Arawaks in the Southern Caribbean who could have helped, but they seemed to be friendly with the Spaniards, and it really would be like expecting Italy to help Spain when the Moors invaded, because they have a cultural and linguistic tie.

So, Spain still controls a chunk of the Caribbean. Ponce de Leon's expeditions to Florida in the early 1520s still happen, but since they barely survived (and Juan didn't) anyways, it's not a stretch to assume that they would be shut out of Florida.

The Mexica had just gotten over a smallpox epidemic when Cortez arrived. It's a easy assumption to make that there would have been fewer apocalyptic thoughts in the Aztecs and their underlings, and fewer NAs would have joined Cortez. Many still would have, and it would be a long, drawn out war, which the Aztecs win, because Spain can't really send resources with enough force in enough time.

Word of these defeats gets back to Europe, where the thought of just going over and living there is crazy. No pilgrims, no Virginia Company. Even if they do, Roanokes abound, as the NA population is just too great to give up the extra land that they did in OTL. (I'm not sure on specifics of North American powers other then Iroquois, so if you have one that could become a powerful state, please let me know).

Long term, for reasons I will get into later (almost bedtime!), Incas take over much if not all of South America, Aztecs get toppled by one of their underlings (haven't really thought of who, but the Texlacans are probably too obvious) who institutes a representative democracy. One or two countries eventually consolidate North America? (Possibly China or France are involved as well?)

In Europe, I haven't yet worked out all the details, but obviously Spain isn't the premier world power, and likely England never becomes one. Suggestions or ideas would be great on Europe, Asia, and Africa as well. I'm off to bed. Happy plotting!
 
Well, I think that the Aztecs at least would fall from their subjects' hatred of them and the fact that their empire was largely built as a hegemony of terrified states played against each other for the benefit of the Triple Alliance.

As for the Inka, they would almost certainly survive: No smallpox epidemic, no Inka Civil War, the empire is even stronger than when Pizarro comes in OTL and a population far larger than Spain with a sophisticated and well organized military and communications system; all the Inka really lacked that was not compensated by something else with regards to the Spanish were naval capabilities and metallurgy. Even the firearms become a non issue as long as harkbuses are pitted against more rapidly firing and accurate slings and not rifles.

All over the Americas, states and chiefdoms would probably first adopt the easy technologies: Crossbows, Old World crops and then, later and only in state level societies for the most part, ferrous metallurgy, paper and printing; the latter 2 would only be easy to apply in Mesoamerica, given the knowledge of writing there and the use of āmatl; I do not know if the elites would like more widespread literacy, though, given the fact that in Mesoamerica writing served as a mark of power as well as a communication and recording device.

As for the Southeast, the Natchez and the Calusa will probably adopt Old world technology relatively early and may even become gunpowder empires (or, more likely in the short term, crossbow empires.) The Calusa will quite likely be very interested in European nautical technology, given their OTL sending a fleet of over a hundred war canoes to fight the Spanish.

As for Amazonia, immunity to European diseases would mean no collapse of the slash and char civilizations and thus make it very difficult for the Portuguese, or any other 16th century European state, to colonize them.

As for the rest of the world, without the New World to exploit, I am guessing that the modern world would be industrialized but much more multipolar.
 
The same immunities? ASB.

You can either start the Columbian Exchange earlier somehow in some kind of transitory or intermittent contact, so you still get the massive deaths in the Americas but the Amerindian societies have mostly recovered by the time the Europeans arrive for good.

Or else you wank society in the Americas and you have have a Vlad Tepes scenario where, like, more than 50% of all humanity dies in both hemispheres.

But if you just handwave Eurasian levels of immunity to smallpox, measles, etc, that's interesting, but its also ASB.
 
So I'm brainstorming for a timeline about what would happen if, for one reason or another, Native Americans (or American Indians, or Amerindians, or Indios, or whatever you want to call them) possessed the same immunities as Europeans, Asians, and Africans.
In my opinion, the real question is not how it would come to be, but what would happen because of the change. Since neither the Spanish or the NAs knew this could/would be a weapon, I say that it's worth the leap to say...what if?

Here's what I have so far. Please let me know what you think, and if I missed anything important:
The first (recorded) smallpox outbreak in the Caribbean was in 1518. That's the POD. In 1518, the Spanish had taken Hispaniola, Panama, and Puerto Rico. They had heard of both the Mexica (Aztec) and Incan Empires (I don't know if they had heard of the Maya yet, if anyone knows, please tell me), and in Spain there was already a thirst for free American gold (Rumors of nuggets as big as eggs floating in rivers was already commonplace at this time).

My initial thought was that the Tainos would overthrow the Spanish in Hispaniola, but by 1511 there were already only 60K left, so although they did mount rebellions in the 1520s, it seems to me unlikely that even with some more people they would be able to overthrow the Spanish by themselves. Spain had already gotten a foothold. It also seems unlikely to me that the Mexica would help. Not sure exactly why, just a hunch. There were other Arawaks in the Southern Caribbean who could have helped, but they seemed to be friendly with the Spaniards, and it really would be like expecting Italy to help Spain when the Moors invaded, because they have a cultural and linguistic tie.

So, Spain still controls a chunk of the Caribbean. Ponce de Leon's expeditions to Florida in the early 1520s still happen, but since they barely survived (and Juan didn't) anyways, it's not a stretch to assume that they would be shut out of Florida.

The Mexica had just gotten over a smallpox epidemic when Cortez arrived. It's a easy assumption to make that there would have been fewer apocalyptic thoughts in the Aztecs and their underlings, and fewer NAs would have joined Cortez. Many still would have, and it would be a long, drawn out war, which the Aztecs win, because Spain can't really send resources with enough force in enough time.

Word of these defeats gets back to Europe, where the thought of just going over and living there is crazy. No pilgrims, no Virginia Company. Even if they do, Roanokes abound, as the NA population is just too great to give up the extra land that they did in OTL. (I'm not sure on specifics of North American powers other then Iroquois, so if you have one that could become a powerful state, please let me know).

Long term, for reasons I will get into later (almost bedtime!), Incas take over much if not all of South America, Aztecs get toppled by one of their underlings (haven't really thought of who, but the Texlacans are probably too obvious) who institutes a representative democracy. One or two countries eventually consolidate North America? (Possibly China or France are involved as well?)

In Europe, I haven't yet worked out all the details, but obviously Spain isn't the premier world power, and likely England never becomes one. Suggestions or ideas would be great on Europe, Asia, and Africa as well. I'm off to bed. Happy plotting!
I don't think the Spanish knew of the Inca, who were on the other side of a more distant continent, but they were much more familiar with the Maya who lived closer to Cuba than they were with the Mexica, who were not as close to their territories. In 1511 some Spaniards had been shipwrecked in the Yucatan and in 1517 there was an expedition that explored the coast of Yucatan and fought a large battle against the local Maya in Campeche, and lost, having to retreat all the way to Cuba with all the survivors save one (who disappeared in Florida) having been wounded. In contrast they hadn't even met the Mexica yet.

Anyhow, the basic gist of it is that colonization as we know it fails, the invaders cannot displace the local population. Even after having gathered a massive army of allies disease still played a huge role in the fight for Tenochtitlan, so it stands to reason that the Aztecs survive. And I'm much more optimistic in regards to their survival against other Mesoamericans than most people here. The Tlaxcallans were no nicer than the Mexica, they would not be these liberators people take them for. The chief difference between them and the Triple Alliance is that the Tlaxcallans were not as militarily competent or powerful. The Tarascans, the other empire people constantly assume will fill the gap, weren't as populous or powerful enough to take Central Mexico, their empire was situated in the less populated west and there simply weren't even that many of them. Despite having a system of forts they only had one real city and the rest of the empire was just villages. What is more likely is that the Triple Alliance is weakened and reorganized at the top, Texcoco might be a stronger player, but they ultimately survive and continue to rule the Valley of Mexico and more, if not toppling the weakened Tlaxcallans.

Without disease or Mexican soldiers to help them, the conquistadors don't stand much of a chance against the Maya either. The Quiches can easily resist them, and even if they try allying with the Tutul Xius against the Cocoms I don't think any of the Xiu-aligned states will let them simply take them over nor would they likely have great success against the Cocoms, who could probably get the Cupuls on their side if the Tutul Xius resort to allying with these barbarous outsiders.

And I agree that up north Roanokes will abound. I've read that the early colonists were actually quite enamored by native culture, as they were much nicer than their upper-class overlords, and many people just abandoned the colonies to join the tribes. Which is probably what happened at Roanoke. As for the local powers, the Wabanaki Confederacy probably stays around as well, they'll probably want to get guns (at least when guns become useful) quickly to defend themselves from the constant Iroquois raids. The Wampanoag and Powhatan are also probably going to be major native powers, or at least the Powhatan will. And the Beothuks might actually survive and retain most of Newfoundland, though they had a tendency to get into conflicts with the colonists because they saw nothing wrong with stealing whatever they could.
 
Thanks for all your thoughts!
I really like the point about adopting crossbows first. The shock factor of Europeans would be minimal, and I figured they would adopt some technology, but I hadn't really thought about which they would adopt. When Balboa was first in Panama (1510 or 11 if memory serves), he was told about a civilization to the south that had the gold the Europeans were looking for, so they knew of the Inca, even though they hadn't had direct contact.

It would be much more difficult for the Europeans to colonize Amazonia, but does anyone know if there were advanced peoples in the Pampas region in Argentina? Europeans took advantage of the southernmost tip of South Africa being a Mediterranean climate(and much less populated than the savanna), and it's possible that the same tactic would work in Southern South America.

The thing that most intrigues me about this scenario is the "multipolar" nature of the world. Europeans would have to treat Americans (and then Asians and Africans) as their equals...

Still, there would be some colonization. Spain already had a presence in the Caribbean, and the New World already was on the minds of Spaniards. Since they wouldn't/couldn't put many resources into the continents, it is reasonable to assume they create a hegemony over the Caribbean.
Since Francis I explored the new world as a way to get back at others, I believe he still would have sent explorers to see what was there. Any ideas as where they may have been successful?
Like I mentioned above, I don't think English colonists would come. Jamestowners would have been easily killed, and Pilgrims came in OTL because it was considered free land-which it would not have been. Instead, the overcrowding and societal strife which caused many people to come to the new world would cause a civil war. Results?
I don't think the Portuguese would have considered it worth the trouble...although they may still have created trading posts in Mexico, Brazil, and other places where state-systems were in place.

In Asia, not much would likely be affected initially, since European colonialism didn't take hold until later. China had the ability to colonize the Americas, but I don't see the butterflies making their rulers effective. Japan, however, was recently unified under Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who had contact with Europeans and wanted to expand. What would have to change in order for Japan to attempt colonization along the Pacific coast? Were the European tarders tight-lipped in OTL, because they didn't want other powers to know about potential trading partners? I don't know if Hideyoshi knew about America. If he didn't in OTL, however, it is conceivable that the Dutch (I'm assuming it was the Dutch...I haven't done a whole lot of research in this area) would tell him about the Hostile, Rich lands to his east?

So, at the end of the 1500s, we have:
Spanish control of the Caribbean, but nowhere else.
French outpost/Exploration leading to missionary colonies (where?)
Expanding Incan empire
Aztecs still in Mexico
Possible Japanese outposts on the Pacific?
England in Turmoil.
NAs along the Atlantic (and Pacific?) coast learning new technologies.
Most of Eurasia unaffected.
 
Right, after their emperor died (possibly) of smallpox, leading to a civil war and mass executions of the ruling class...
 
I don't think the natives would adopt the crossbow. They didn't have much respect for it, regarding it as a clumsy weapon. Sure you can train a man faster with a crossbow, but given that most native societies were warlike it wasn't exactly much trouble to train them from a young age with bows. Even the Aztecs had their children learn some fighting skills, including archery, in their mandatory public school system. And it wasn't exactly the English longbow that takes a couple of decades to get someone to be used to it.
 
If you don't deal with the diseases its not going to matter in the long run. You might prevent the Mexica or the Inka from being conquered as they were IOTL but you're still going to rip apart the native societies in a very damaging and traumatic way.
 
@Fanged: I assumed the crossbow would be adopted because it is iron-piercing.
@Wolf: I think that some would be ripped apart, but American nations could take their place, which they could not in OTL. That doesn't mean that they will in all cases, but it's a possibility. I also don't have enough information to predict where would fall apart, and who would be strong enough to pick up the pieces and thrive (In North America). I can't seem to find my copy of 1491 :(.
 
I think that some would be ripped apart, but American nations could take their place, which they could not in OTL. That doesn't mean that they will in all cases, but it's a possibility. I also don't have enough information to predict where would fall apart, and who would be strong enough to pick up the pieces and thrive (In North America). I can't seem to find my copy of 1491 :(.

So... after the native societies have been decimated by Eurasian diseases, you're expecting other native societies who have also been decimated by Eurasian diseases to 'step up to the plate' so to speak?
 
Not ripped apart by disease, ripped apart by a technologically superior, racially different people appearing from essentially nowhere coming to pay you a visit. See as reference any Alien invasion movie.
 
Not ripped apart by disease, ripped apart by a technologically superior, racially different people appearing from essentially nowhere coming to pay you a visit. See as reference any Alien invasion movie.

ಠ_ಠ

When Europeans first encountered areas like the Mississippi or Amazon river basins they were absolutely teaming with native americans living in highly organized, extremely populous, complex societies. Less than a generation later, sometimes less than a decade, when more Europeans showed up they found those areas completely devoid of human life.

The first explorers hardly interacted at all with the societies they discovered; aside from exporting their diseases.
 
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