So I'm brainstorming for a timeline about what would happen if, for one reason or another, Native Americans (or American Indians, or Amerindians, or Indios, or whatever you want to call them) possessed the same immunities as Europeans, Asians, and Africans.
In my opinion, the real question is not how it would come to be, but what would happen because of the change. Since neither the Spanish or the NAs knew this could/would be a weapon, I say that it's worth the leap to say...what if?
Here's what I have so far. Please let me know what you think, and if I missed anything important:
The first (recorded) smallpox outbreak in the Caribbean was in 1518. That's the POD. In 1518, the Spanish had taken Hispaniola, Panama, and Puerto Rico. They had heard of both the Mexica (Aztec) and Incan Empires (I don't know if they had heard of the Maya yet, if anyone knows, please tell me), and in Spain there was already a thirst for free American gold (Rumors of nuggets as big as eggs floating in rivers was already commonplace at this time).
My initial thought was that the Tainos would overthrow the Spanish in Hispaniola, but by 1511 there were already only 60K left, so although they did mount rebellions in the 1520s, it seems to me unlikely that even with some more people they would be able to overthrow the Spanish by themselves. Spain had already gotten a foothold. It also seems unlikely to me that the Mexica would help. Not sure exactly why, just a hunch. There were other Arawaks in the Southern Caribbean who could have helped, but they seemed to be friendly with the Spaniards, and it really would be like expecting Italy to help Spain when the Moors invaded, because they have a cultural and linguistic tie.
So, Spain still controls a chunk of the Caribbean. Ponce de Leon's expeditions to Florida in the early 1520s still happen, but since they barely survived (and Juan didn't) anyways, it's not a stretch to assume that they would be shut out of Florida.
The Mexica had just gotten over a smallpox epidemic when Cortez arrived. It's a easy assumption to make that there would have been fewer apocalyptic thoughts in the Aztecs and their underlings, and fewer NAs would have joined Cortez. Many still would have, and it would be a long, drawn out war, which the Aztecs win, because Spain can't really send resources with enough force in enough time.
Word of these defeats gets back to Europe, where the thought of just going over and living there is crazy. No pilgrims, no Virginia Company. Even if they do, Roanokes abound, as the NA population is just too great to give up the extra land that they did in OTL. (I'm not sure on specifics of North American powers other then Iroquois, so if you have one that could become a powerful state, please let me know).
Long term, for reasons I will get into later (almost bedtime!), Incas take over much if not all of South America, Aztecs get toppled by one of their underlings (haven't really thought of who, but the Texlacans are probably too obvious) who institutes a representative democracy. One or two countries eventually consolidate North America? (Possibly China or France are involved as well?)
In Europe, I haven't yet worked out all the details, but obviously Spain isn't the premier world power, and likely England never becomes one. Suggestions or ideas would be great on Europe, Asia, and Africa as well. I'm off to bed. Happy plotting!
In my opinion, the real question is not how it would come to be, but what would happen because of the change. Since neither the Spanish or the NAs knew this could/would be a weapon, I say that it's worth the leap to say...what if?
Here's what I have so far. Please let me know what you think, and if I missed anything important:
The first (recorded) smallpox outbreak in the Caribbean was in 1518. That's the POD. In 1518, the Spanish had taken Hispaniola, Panama, and Puerto Rico. They had heard of both the Mexica (Aztec) and Incan Empires (I don't know if they had heard of the Maya yet, if anyone knows, please tell me), and in Spain there was already a thirst for free American gold (Rumors of nuggets as big as eggs floating in rivers was already commonplace at this time).
My initial thought was that the Tainos would overthrow the Spanish in Hispaniola, but by 1511 there were already only 60K left, so although they did mount rebellions in the 1520s, it seems to me unlikely that even with some more people they would be able to overthrow the Spanish by themselves. Spain had already gotten a foothold. It also seems unlikely to me that the Mexica would help. Not sure exactly why, just a hunch. There were other Arawaks in the Southern Caribbean who could have helped, but they seemed to be friendly with the Spaniards, and it really would be like expecting Italy to help Spain when the Moors invaded, because they have a cultural and linguistic tie.
So, Spain still controls a chunk of the Caribbean. Ponce de Leon's expeditions to Florida in the early 1520s still happen, but since they barely survived (and Juan didn't) anyways, it's not a stretch to assume that they would be shut out of Florida.
The Mexica had just gotten over a smallpox epidemic when Cortez arrived. It's a easy assumption to make that there would have been fewer apocalyptic thoughts in the Aztecs and their underlings, and fewer NAs would have joined Cortez. Many still would have, and it would be a long, drawn out war, which the Aztecs win, because Spain can't really send resources with enough force in enough time.
Word of these defeats gets back to Europe, where the thought of just going over and living there is crazy. No pilgrims, no Virginia Company. Even if they do, Roanokes abound, as the NA population is just too great to give up the extra land that they did in OTL. (I'm not sure on specifics of North American powers other then Iroquois, so if you have one that could become a powerful state, please let me know).
Long term, for reasons I will get into later (almost bedtime!), Incas take over much if not all of South America, Aztecs get toppled by one of their underlings (haven't really thought of who, but the Texlacans are probably too obvious) who institutes a representative democracy. One or two countries eventually consolidate North America? (Possibly China or France are involved as well?)
In Europe, I haven't yet worked out all the details, but obviously Spain isn't the premier world power, and likely England never becomes one. Suggestions or ideas would be great on Europe, Asia, and Africa as well. I'm off to bed. Happy plotting!