American Victory in the War of 1812

In our world the war of 1812 ended in a ceasefire. Neither side gaining much. But it did prove that the United States was not a nation Europe should underestimate. With the Monroe Doctrine a few years later, American isolationism became commonplace. But what if things had gone differently? The US wins the war somehow, what changes?

I think should this happen, the US becomes more imperialistic than in our Timeline. Ultimately America adopts a very prussian attitude, conquest is always a viable option when diplomacy breaks down. With a more militant America, does the US become a central power in ww1? Does France and Britain become radicalized states and start ww2?

Thoughts?
 
The war of 1812 brought the US to the brink of total economic collapse, while the UK considered it little more than an irritating distraction. If the US develops an attitude of "if you can't negotiate, conquer" (say, during the rebellions of 1837), then it's likely to piss off the UK in short order, receive the undivided attention of the RN, and discover what it feels like to be a bug on a windscreen several decades before cars are invented.
 
winning to the extent proposed isn't going to happen. It's doubtful that the US is going to become some militant nation moreso than it did OTL (did we forget about the Mex-Am war a few decades later, not to mention the numerous native American wars, the forced opening of Japan, and the Spanish American War - and that was all before the US really got the party started). There was way too much area to conquer and fill in North America for them to take on European powers. Besides, where is the conflict for negotiations? With a win in 1812, the US will take what they want of Canada, and the border will be settled.

But if they do go militant, they'll find the cost quite high. And the whole perfect storm of happy circumstance that created and fanned the flames of greatness of the US could very possibly get knocked off course and the states balkanize into chaos.
 
I think you need the Americans to do a little better than OTL and Napoleon to hold out until 1820 or so. Conquering all of Canada isn’t realistic but perhaps some land south of the St. Lawrence and western concessions are possible
 
Assuming worst-plausible-case scenarios for Britain - for example, the American militias find competent leadership quickly, and Napoleon takes longer to fall/remains in power - then the Americans could secure more favorable borders. If they press much harder, then the British simply refuse to make peace, and there's not a whole lot the Americans can do to force the issue.
 
In our world the war of 1812 ended in a ceasefire. Neither side gaining much. But it did prove that the United States was not a nation Europe should underestimate. With the Monroe Doctrine a few years later, American isolationism became commonplace. But what if things had gone differently? The US wins the war somehow, what changes?

I think should this happen, the US becomes more imperialistic than in our Timeline. Ultimately America adopts a very prussian attitude, conquest is always a viable option when diplomacy breaks down. With a more militant America, does the US become a central power in ww1? Does France and Britain become radicalized states and start ww2?

Thoughts?

I'm goning to post this again from another thread but do you suppose the annexation of the Great Lakes watershed after the peace treaty as a win ? It's the most plausible win scenario given the Upper Canada only had a fraction of the population compared to Lower Canada
upload_2019-1-7_0-43-8-png.430896
 

Lusitania

Donor
The Jefferson and Madison administrations not gutting the Army and the Navy might help a little towards this goal.
But we ignore the fact that federal government was bankrupt after ARW and kept on very short leash (in terms of taxes it could collect). Plus more importantly the states did not want to give up their power to the federal government to maintain federal army.

The confederate learn this the hard way by state armies not being under one command and that these state armies primary duty was to defend the state and not leave it undefended to fight in another state.

So you would need a huge POD before or latest in 1800 to transfer military from state to federal.
 
I'm goning to post this again from another thread but do you suppose the annexation of the Great Lakes watershed after the peace treaty as a win ? It's the most plausible win scenario given the Upper Canada only had a fraction of the population compared to Lower Canada
upload_2019-1-7_0-43-8-png.430896

Securing the whole Great Lakes basin is an improbability, as the British still control the Saint Lawrence River and had a better hold beyond Superior than the US did by far. Best they could hope for is snipping off the Ontario Peninsula and maybe pushing the border further north beyond Superior.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Securing the whole Great Lakes basin is an improbability, as the British still control the Saint Lawrence River and had a better hold beyond Superior than the US did by far. Best they could hope for is snipping off the Ontario Peninsula and maybe pushing the border further north beyond Superior.
Yes they can occupy it, but will the British let the Americans keep it?
 
Yes they can occupy it, but will the British let the Americans keep it?

That's the extent of what I can see Britain willing to give up if they had to make peace and run for whatever reason. The OTL outcome of status-quo was about as much as the US could have realistically hoped for when the outcome was almost so much worse in 1814 alone. Any worse POD's for the US in 1812 might just keep rolling till things get out of control.

I mean to whit:

If the Americans lose Lake Erie the Michigan Peninsula is gone

If the Americans lose Champlain and Plattsburgh, Northern New York gets sliced off

If the Americans lose Baltimore, it gets worse - say goodbye to the putative state of Maine, farewell portions of the Northwest, goodbye Upper Peninsula...
 
The USA basically did as well as we could OTL.

If we'd been a formal French ally AND Napoleon had won (which means, POD at least as early as 1800), then we could realistically hope for Nova Scotia and the Great Lakes basin. That's it.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The USA basically did as well as we could OTL.

If we'd been a formal French ally AND Napoleon had won (which means, POD at least as early as 1800), then we could realistically hope for Nova Scotia and the Great Lakes basin. That's it.
French winning does not negate the British navy controlling the seas and that removes Nova Scotia from picture.
 
French winning does not negate the British navy controlling the seas and that removes Nova Scotia from picture.
Britain wouldn't stop fighting Napoleon until he broke them. At best, temporary truce followed by resumption of hostilities later. Letting a hostile power control the Continent was an existential threat to British interests at the time.

In which case, Napoleon uses controlling the continent (this situation assumes he has said control following a PoD in the 1800s) to out-build the British navally, that breaks the RN and lets Boney either cut off the Isles, support an Irish rising, or invade outright. Either way, that lets America gain Nova Scotia no matter how hard the Noble Canadian Patriots (muscles trained with 10 thousand axe swings, hands sharp like sword blades, each Glorious Canuck worth 10 scabrous American hillbillies!!!1!) fight.

Keep in mind, this is basically the only way for 1812 to go down differently, and with a PoD as early as the early 1800s, yeah, it could change a lot more than just 'Murica and Britain's relations.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Britain wouldn't stop fighting Napoleon until he broke them. At best, temporary truce followed by resumption of hostilities later. Letting a hostile power control the Continent was an existential threat to British interests at the time.

In which case, Napoleon uses controlling the continent (this situation assumes he has said control following a PoD in the 1800s) to out-build the British navally, that breaks the RN and lets Boney either cut off the Isles, support an Irish rising, or invade outright. Either way, that lets America gain Nova Scotia no matter how hard the Noble Canadian Patriots (muscles trained with 10 thousand axe swings, hands sharp like sword blades, each Glorious Canuck worth 10 scabrous American hillbillies!!!1!) fight.

Keep in mind, this is basically the only way for 1812 to go down differently, and with a PoD as early as the early 1800s, yeah, it could change a lot more than just 'Murica and Britain's relations.

In that case that means no Louisiana purchase. So smaller US and I could see the Americans trying to decide who they fight French or British. Do we think Napoleon accept the Americans occupying Louisiana?
 
In that case that means no Louisiana purchase. So smaller US and I could see the Americans trying to decide who they fight French or British. Do we think Napoleon accept the Americans occupying Louisiana?
Nah, Louisiana could still go down. That was basically a fire sale by Boney. It's entirely possible for him to trade the land for the money to get a fleet to break the RN. Much less likely but not impossible.

But again, this would mean a completely different situation on the ground because of the early POD.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Nah, Louisiana could still go down. That was basically a fire sale by Boney. It's entirely possible for him to trade the land for the money to get a fleet to break the RN. Much less likely but not impossible.

But again, this would mean a completely different situation on the ground because of the early POD.
Yes but a stronger France in 1800 means its forces could recapture Haiti the centerpiece of French North America colonial empire. A French Haiti means a French Louisiana.

Note: France only sold Louisiana due to The US when Haiti was lost. Louisiana was to be French settler colony which was to be paid for by the profits from sugar plantations of Haiti.
 
If we have a Federalist president in 1812 (maybe with a POD of Hamilton surviving the duel and running against Madison in 1809), I can see the U.S keeping Upper Canada, Rupert's Land, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Jamaica.
 
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