American Victory in 1812

Without the French winning the Napoleonic Wars it seems implausibe. The Bahamas Bermuda and Newfoundland are islands and the Royal Navy would be in the way. The most plausible outcome would be American gaining a few parts of Canada maybe just north of the Great Lakes and New Brunswick. If it relied on French support then Quebec will be back under French rule and a lot of Candians were loyalists not to mention a new influx of black loyalists who wouldn't want to be handed back to plantation owners. A redrawing of the border and maybe freer hand in what became Btritish Columbia
 
About the best the US could hope for would be a portion of Upper Canada.
If they had a wonderful campaign and made there way up close to York, and Napoleon does just well enough to distract the British, the British may be willing to make a deal.
But other than parts of Upper Canada and the West, the US won't get anymore. Lower Canada, the Maritimes, and anything in the Caribbeans are too important for Britain to give up.
Upper Canada is just a poor colony that has recently been settled, and the West is unknown land.
 
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