American status if no European WWII

One of the reason of the rise to superpower status of the United States was the power vacuum left by the devastation of Europe and Asia industrial base during WWII and the help that this war had in pulling America out of the 30's economic quagmire.

What if WWII had never happened in Europe as in France and England decisively reoccupying the Rhineland after the Austrian annexation. This causes fear in the Germans mind that it will lead to another major war helping bring down Hitler and the Nazi party (with or without help of the German army). A war with Japan would still happen but the outcome would make America a major naval power but not much else.

Considering no Lend-Lease, no funnelling of the unemployed in the army, no massive arsenal buildup, no european immigration, no cold war, german, french, english and italian industry in much better shape, a continuing recession and lingering isolationist mood; would the United States still become THE economic and military superpower of the day or just a major power? What would be its effect on the rest of history?
 
The war with Japan probably won't happen. Japan's main goal in launchin the Pacific War was to gain control over French Indochina, the DEI and British Malaya. If the European powers aren't distracted then Japan won't even think about attacking.
 
The structural factors which made the US a superpower will still exist, and without a doubt the US will become a superpower. But it will live in a world where the USSR and Germany are also superpowers more or less and the British aren't too far behind. So the US' slice of world power will be proprtionally much less than OTL.

The inexorable march of world-shrinking technology will force the US out of its artificial isolation. The world will come to it in ships and aircraft, and military force will be projected out of Europe and Asia into US shperes of influence.
 
I think a Japanese war is still more likely than not. Japan is stuck in China, it won't withdraw, it has to lash out; but this might not affect America immediately.

America will be the most powerful country in the world, but the whole concept of a "superpower" will probably not exist ina world where not only America and the USSR but also Britain, France, Germany, even Italy and Japan, later China and India, can all play their own game.
 
I am really curious to the status of Japan in a no WWII scenario. On the one hand, they can't legitimately attack the DEI, as all of Europe and America would come down on them. On the other hand, if the USA announces an oil embargo as in OTL (which is possible), what will happen? The Japanese thought of that as an act of war IOTL, but what do they again by attacking the USA?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I am really curious to the status of Japan in a no WWII scenario. On the one hand, they can't legitimately attack the DEI, as all of Europe and America would come down on them. On the other hand, if the USA announces an oil embargo as in OTL (which is possible), what will happen? The Japanese thought of that as an act of war IOTL, but what do they again by attacking the USA?

Would the other European power join the oil embargo if there was no war in Europe? I don't think the Dutch government (which in OTL was in exile in London) would join it if it wasn't occupied by Germany. Which rather limited their policy choices.
 
Japan's main goal in launchin the Pacific War was to gain control over French Indochina, the DEI and British Malaya. If the European powers aren't distracted then Japan won't even think about attacking.

Japan had already occupied French Indochina before December 1941. Long rage aircraft stationed in French Indochina were responsible for sinking Prince of Wales and Repulse.
 
The structural factors which made the US a superpower will still exist, and without a doubt the US will become a superpower. But it will live in a world where the USSR and Germany are also superpowers more or less and the British aren't too far behind. So the US' slice of world power will be proprtionally much less than OTL.

The inexorable march of world-shrinking technology will force the US out of its artificial isolation. The world will come to it in ships and aircraft, and military force will be projected out of Europe and Asia into US shperes of influence.

Riain,
Your last paragraph suggests to me several eventual wars involving the USA and European and/or Asian powers. Even without WW-2 to spur US military spending, I think there will be increases in US naval and air power. Possibly even the US Army if the encroachments into the Americas are threatening enough.

The possible alliances are wide open in this situation. The USA could ally itself with Britain, France, or Germany. The Soviet Union and Japan are also possible depending on the lineup and geography of the opposing countries.
 
I am really curious to the status of Japan in a no WWII scenario. On the one hand, they can't legitimately attack the DEI, as all of Europe and America would come down on them. On the other hand, if the USA announces an oil embargo as in OTL (which is possible), what will happen? The Japanese thought of that as an act of war IOTL, but what do they again by attacking the USA?

A straight US-Japan war with China being the only ally on either side? A big question is where does Japan get oil? Neutral nations are a possibility. I don't think the US will be attacking neutral tankers, and can't effectively board and search neutral merchants till the Philippines are retaken.

The US drive across the Pacific is limited to Hawaii-Midway-Wake-the Marshalls-Guam-Philippines. Would the Japanese recognize the danger of long-range bombers in the Marianas and sortie the fleet? Or do they stick to the decisive battle in the Philippines or north of there?

The US won't have the advantage of the Solomans campaign to engage Japan in a war of attrition. Nor will the Japanese have to contend with defending against multiple Allied thrusts.
 
A straight Japan-US war would mostly just be a matter of the US holding on long enough with public support. As long as the war can maintain the good will of the American people, the Japanese really can't compete with the US in the long run. Short term gains? Sure. But the US' industry and economy overwhelmed that of the Japanese, especially once the Great Depression was over (probably take a bit longer in this TL, but it'd still slow down and finish eventually). America can afford to lose men, ships, and planes. Japan cannot.
 
Riain,
Your last paragraph suggests to me several eventual wars involving the USA and European and/or Asian powers. Even without WW-2 to spur US military spending, I think there will be increases in US naval and air power. Possibly even the US Army if the encroachments into the Americas are threatening enough.

The possible alliances are wide open in this situation. The USA could ally itself with Britain, France, or Germany. The Soviet Union and Japan are also possible depending on the lineup and geography of the opposing countries.

Exactly, the British allied themselves with the French in Crimea and WW1 and jointly built the Suez canal, but were at loggerheads at Fashoda in between. Similar rivalries much like the Cold War would abound without WW2 and without the blow imperialism took in WW2 these rivalries can occur all over the globe, even in the Americas.
 
The US drive across the Pacific is limited to Hawaii-Midway-Wake-the Marshalls-Guam-Philippines. Would the Japanese recognize the danger of long-range bombers in the Marianas and sortie the fleet? Or do they stick to the decisive battle in the Philippines or north of there?

The US won't have the advantage of the Solomans campaign to engage Japan in a war of attrition. Nor will the Japanese have to contend with defending against multiple Allied thrusts.

The straight US-Japan war is essentially the scenario that the Orange Plan was designed to deal with. The versions of the plan by c. 1938-40 or so, anticipated that after mobilizing and concentrating forces in Hawaii, that the US fleet would drive through the Marshalls & Carolines in the first couple phases, eliminating Japanese advanced bases and establishing a supporting base network. Attritional battles involving Japanese aviation and light forces were expected, and this part was expected to take up to 2 years. The third phase would involve operations to recapture Guam and capture the rest of the Marianas & the Palaus as thought necessary to extend the base network in preparation for the 4th phase, landing an army in the Philippines to liberate them. The planners expected that the US would have to fight the bulk of the Japanese navy in a series of fleet actions at some part in phases 3 or 4, which would decide the war. Assuming that the US won those actions, if the Japanese were continuing the war after the Philippines had been retaken to a sufficient degree, the 5th phase would involve taking the war to Japan. Although the specifics are a bit vague, the idea was that a series of bases where bomber airfields in range of Japan would be built, and Japan would be forced into submission by a combination of bombardment and blockade. Taiwan, Okinawa, and the Bonins were all floated as possibilities for that, as an alternative route driving from the Aleutians into the Kuriles was rejected due to weather and logistical concerns.

For their part, Japanese naval planners had worked out the basic outline of Plan Orange through their own strategy sessions, and planned to weaken the US fleet through attacks by aircraft, submarines, and light forces, before seeking a decisive fleet action somewhere in the Philippine Sea in response to a US attack upon the Marianas or Philippines.

The naval forces would have been the primary units of such a war, and in OTL WW2, the bulk of Japan's front-line naval strength was committed to facing the USN during most of the key naval campaigns- Midway, Guadalcanal, the Marianas, and the Philippines, where it was destroyed.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
One of the reason of the rise to superpower status of the United States was the power vacuum left by the devastation of Europe and Asia industrial base during WWII and the help that this war had in pulling America out of the 30's economic quagmire.

What if WWII had never happened in Europe as in France and England decisively reoccupying the Rhineland after the Austrian annexation. This causes fear in the Germans mind that it will lead to another major war helping bring down Hitler and the Nazi party (with or without help of the German army). A war with Japan would still happen but the outcome would make America a major naval power but not much else.

Considering no Lend-Lease, no funnelling of the unemployed in the army, no massive arsenal buildup, no european immigration, no cold war, german, french, english and italian industry in much better shape, a continuing recession and lingering isolationist mood; would the United States still become THE economic and military superpower of the day or just a major power? What would be its effect on the rest of history?

War with Japan would not happen, since Japan wouldn't attack if they weren't going for the European Colonies, and if Britain and France doens't fight a war in Europe, Japan won't go to war either. (expect China, that would happen).
 
This is One of My Favourite PODs, So it's Good to See it here ...

My View is this would Lead to a MUCH More Multi-Polar World, Similar by Far to The Concert of Europe than to The Super-Power Period!

Without a Forced End to Colonization, I'd Expect that to Last a Bit Longer; Whether or Not that's Better or Worse than OTL will Probably Depend on Location ...

One Area that I Expect will do a LOT Better is The Middle East; While Averting Most of The Holocaust won't Blunt Zionism Completely, a Slower and Diplomatically Studied Approach to The Mandate of Palestine is Likely to Result in Less Paranoia Amoung whichever Successor States are Created in its Place!
 

Larrikin

Banned
The Great Depression

A straight Japan-US war would mostly just be a matter of the US holding on long enough with public support. As long as the war can maintain the good will of the American people, the Japanese really can't compete with the US in the long run. Short term gains? Sure. But the US' industry and economy overwhelmed that of the Japanese, especially once the Great Depression was over (probably take a bit longer in this TL, but it'd still slow down and finish eventually). America can afford to lose men, ships, and planes. Japan cannot.

It was WWII that got the USA out of the Great Depression. Initially it was the influx of hard cash from Britain and France buying war materiels and then the introduction of conscription alongside the increase in the USA's domestic armaments programmes.

Give how spectacularly unsuccessful FDR and Morgenthau's policies had been up until then it could have carried on for another 10 years.
 
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