Finding estimates of how many Americans died or emigrated during the Revolutionary War period and early Republic is relatively straightforward. The larger question, though - American population growth absent the Revolution - is something I haven't seen worked out in much detail.
What immigration was "lost" in the long period of revolution, war, and economic recovery? How did the war impact the American birth rate? Were any immigration sources permanently altered by the revolutionary interruption?
At a glance it would seem likely that an America not riven by the conflict would be dramatically "ahead" of the OTL United States. Higher populations across the board, especially in ports and their hinterlands; greater and more uniform westward expansion; continued development of the Floridas. Some things could go in the other direction of course: interior cities might be reduced in stature as provincial capitals were not moved inland out of British reach; continued alliance will make displacing the Cherokee and Iroquois slow and awkward; Ontario and especially the Maritimes would develop much more slowly without a Loyalist influx. And there's always the LTTW model - that a BNA might be much more closed to immigration.
Thoughts? Has anyone analyzed this seriously in a timeline?
What immigration was "lost" in the long period of revolution, war, and economic recovery? How did the war impact the American birth rate? Were any immigration sources permanently altered by the revolutionary interruption?
At a glance it would seem likely that an America not riven by the conflict would be dramatically "ahead" of the OTL United States. Higher populations across the board, especially in ports and their hinterlands; greater and more uniform westward expansion; continued development of the Floridas. Some things could go in the other direction of course: interior cities might be reduced in stature as provincial capitals were not moved inland out of British reach; continued alliance will make displacing the Cherokee and Iroquois slow and awkward; Ontario and especially the Maritimes would develop much more slowly without a Loyalist influx. And there's always the LTTW model - that a BNA might be much more closed to immigration.
Thoughts? Has anyone analyzed this seriously in a timeline?