American Politics in a Nazi Cold War Scenario

So let's go with a Fatherland/AANW/Thousand Week Reich esque semi-plausible(ish) scenario where the Axis Powers more or less win in Europe, Germany somehow conquers all of Russia up to the urals, and the Western Allies prove unwilling to bear the cost of continuing the war, with peace being made in 1945 or 46. Meanwhile Japan is starved and nuked into submission, surrendering in the December of 1945.

Let's assume that the Reich doesn't immediately collapse into a civil war when Hitler kicks the bucket and someone that is at least rational enough to not want to start World War 3 succeeds him.

So with this alternate Cold War being between the United States and a victorious Third Reich instead of the Soviet Union (who is a rump state in Siberia that is closely allied to the United States), how are American politics likely affected?
 
I imagine that Communism loses its place as a cultural bugaboo. With Nazism/Fascism at an all time high I imagine that the Cold War will see far right governments set up by the Nazis, while the Americans end up supporting left wing governments.
 
I imagine that Communism loses its place as a cultural bugaboo. With Nazism/Fascism at an all time high I imagine that the Cold War will see far right governments set up by the Nazis, while the Americans end up supporting left wing governments.
I’ve been working on my own US-Nazi Cold War story for a while and that’s my take as well.
 
With Nazism/Fascism at an all time high I imagine that the Cold War will see far right governments set up by the Nazis, while the Americans end up supporting left wing governments.
Why would the United States support governments opposed to it's economic interests? when right-wing governments would have no ideological commitments to the Nazis and would be quite willing to stay out of the cold war or ally with United States
 
Why would the United States support governments opposed to it's economic interests? when right-wing governments would have no ideological commitments to the Nazis and would be quite willing to stay out of the cold war or ally with United States
Just saying that the US may end up supporting groups that are the antithesis to Fascism.
 

Pangur

Donor
I imagine that Communism loses its place as a cultural bugaboo. With Nazism/Fascism at an all time high I imagine that the Cold War will see far right governments set up by the Nazis, while the Americans end up supporting left wing governments.
Where would that leave the issues about racism and antisemitism?
 
Why would the United States support governments opposed to it's economic interests? when right-wing governments would have no ideological commitments to the Nazis and would be quite willing to stay out of the cold war or ally with United States
Well at the very least I'd assume the US would have less of a motivation to knock down every socialist movement they can and will be more willing to work with socialists when it's convenient.
 
Where would that leave the issues about racism and antisemitism?

I personally feel that the Civil Rights movement had its basis tied to the service of African Americans in the military during the Second World War. I think seeing what happened in Europe made Americans see a lot of mirror images from their own history. But the real question is if the United States knows about the Holocaust, because in Fatherland, it was not really discussed by either the Nazis or the Americans, though IIRC the Americans had some knowledge of the extermination but no official recognition of such.
 
I agree on that the United States wouldn't back leftist governments in Latin America and elsewhere (or at least they wouldn't be the first option).

What many tend to forget is that the Right can be divided like the Left (although somewhat less due certain factors that favour unity). For example: wealthy landowners and businessmen with fascist tendencies and Strasserist-lite agitators seem to be on the same side. But looking more closely, we realise that the former, with their desire to break unions and relax labour laws are quite at odds with the latter, who argue in favour of a purified society and heavy spending on things like housing, job programmes, welfare etc. Therefore, the Americans, who would still be capitalist enough, would still likely back conservative forces, but, unlike OTL, it would support more actually civilian and moderate governments rather than outright dictatorships - unless things go awry. For instance, I don't expect people like Alfredo Schroeder to be in power for long, if at all.
The various fascist movements in Latin America would certainly be more prominent, but in most cases, they would be against National Socialism, because (if I remember correctly) they favoured a common national and cultural identity over purification the country and ideas of a master race (it's usually lost on many of us that Fascism and National Socialism aren't identical and that they can probably be more at odds with each other rather than other ideologies - Spain and Italy during the

Now, on the US domestic scene. The Left would certainly be more influential and respectable than OTL, as Communism and the Left in general wouldn't be the boogeymen.

Regarding the Civil Rights, it is a mixed bag. If the United States hadn't been involved in the war (most likely pod for Germany to win), then the black servicemen who would in otl lead to the 1948 executive order for the integration of the military wouldn't be there. Furthermore, the Holocaust was known (perhaps not by everyone), since the British knew about groups of Jews being sent to the camps as part of operation Reinhard and the famous Rigner telegram sent to American Jews informed them of the plans to eliminate the Jews; but while this would cause public outcry and serve as a sore point in American - German relations, many would rush to separate this from the issues of institutional racism and segregation in the South and other parts of the country: they would say that this is to be expected from the famously barbarous Germans and that the "land of the free" is a civilised place and therefore "we are better than them. Fullstop". Therefore I would say that Civil Rights wouldn't come in the late 1940s. But gradually, as the Cold War between the United States and Germany is in full swing, demands for Civil Rights and desegregation would begin to be made; with a stronger left, as the Red Scare: 50s edition wouldn't likely happen and an openly extremely racist regime being the opponent, the racist and far-right elements in the United States would be under (far) more pressure than OTL and perhaps, desegregation would happen in the early 1950s and civil rights would be given in the late 1950s (perhaps, this is just my estimate). But it would be more bloody than OTL, both due to it being done earlier than OTL and because many opponents would view it as unjustified.

Another mixed bag is the (far) right itself. On the one hand, it wouldn't enjoy the long period of relative peace it enjoyed during the otl 1950s, as now the enemy is National Socialism and perhaps would suffer some crackdowns. But on the other hand, a Cold War with Nazi Germany wouldn't be as intense as the otl one, because both countries would be separated by the Atlantic and thus, there wouldn't be many points where they could come in direct conflicts - especially if Britain somehow is under German influence /control. Furthermore, Germany would be rather unable and/or unwilling to try to spread its influence outside Europe in the same manner the USSR did : unable because it would have to face its own domestic problems and its ideology is a rather unattractive one for people in the Third World, unwilling because Hitler viewed European domination /hegemony as the main goal of Germany and therefore, at least for the first years after the war, Germany would be rather inward-looking. And lastly, Germany seemed to still be a capitalist country - with a rather horrible government and in fact more of a very ineffective combination of (crony) state capitalism, corporate - dominated economy and stealing /looting as an economic system , but still, seemingly capitalist. Therefore, the conflict wouldn't be as intense as OTL and there wouldn't be a crusade against the far right.
Therefore, in the late 1960s, I would expect a revival of the Right, focused on many points that it used IOTL (state rights, traditionalism, defence of morals and values etc) and alongside it, the far-right. If Germany doesn't implode in the 1960s and reforms (either in Speer or Bormann fashion, to use a TNO analogy), the two superpowers would most likely begin to build ties with each other, particularly economic ones; with a decrease in tensions, increased ties and a (at least somewhat) successful Germany across the Atlantic and a potential alt - malaise of 1970s or another similar event, the Right in general and the far right in particular would become a very prominent political group.
 
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I personally feel that the Civil Rights movement had its basis tied to the service of African Americans in the military during the Second World War. I think seeing what happened in Europe made Americans see a lot of mirror images from their own history. But the real question is if the United States knows about the Holocaust, because in Fatherland, it was not really discussed by either the Nazis or the Americans, though IIRC the Americans had some knowledge of the extermination but no official recognition of such.
There’s no way the Nazis are hiding Generalplan Ost and that would make the Holocaust look like a birthday party.
 
There’s no way the Nazis are hiding Generalplan Ost and that would make the Holocaust look like a birthday party.
Regarding the Generalplan Ost: it was a plan. And there were many plans regarding the future of Eastern Europe, ranging from the Generalplan Ost to Rosenberg's plans of setting up independent states in Eastern Europe and boxing Russia in. Hitler himself wasn't always set on direct control : as late as 1940-1941, he talked about the possibility of a "federation of Baltic states" and an "independent Ukraine". And National Socialism proved to be quite fluid and easy to change in some ways in wartime.

In my view, a reason why Hitler pushed for the direct control of the East can be found in the way the occupation was organised. More specifically, the General Government was set up in large part in order to prevent the imposition of standard German law that would result from a direct annexation to the Reich itself: Hitler wanted Frank not to be "shackled" by the nuisances of legality etc. in order to achieve what he deemed as vital for the German people (this however proved to be a bit ironic, as Frank proved to be thoroughly arbitrary in his administration but presented himself as the staunch defender of the position of the law in the state)

The same reason was largely behind the creation of the Reichskommissariats, as Hitler wanted the lands of Eastern Europe, which were central to his plans and ideas, to be ruled by people loyal to the Party, men of decisive action and political activity (supposedly), rather than brow-beaten administrators trying to minimise the demands of the army and the government, sticking to legal procedures that were "remnants of an older, liberal order" and in general being a pain in the ass for Hitler and his visions.

Also, even between these Party men, there were differences of style and ideas, ranging from Wilhelm Kube to Erich Koch.

Erich Koch was the Reichskommissar of Ukraine. His idea of government didn't extend much further than systematic looting of the area, surveillance and repression, while he demonstrated an extremely racist behaviour - largely politically motivated (casually calling the Ukrainians as "niggers"), despite the fact that his administration came to rely quite heavily on the locals. All these brought him to conflict with many, such as Rosenberg, Berger (Himmler's man in Ukraine) and more. Despite all these however, he managed to retain his position, but still, his rulesl was dependent almost solely on brutality and force.

Wilhelm Kube was the Generalkommissar of White Ruthenia (Belarus), an Altkämpfer, convicted of embezzlement, demoted in the Party and sent to the area partly as punishment. Unlike Koch however, whom he had many shared qualities with, he managed to maintain an element of political pragmatism in his otherwise similarly brutal administration. While his police brutally massacred Jews en masse and few other places in Europe were as much as or more devastated than Belarus after the war, Kube viewed himself as a patron of local culture and was to an extent aware of the limitations imposed by his limited manpower and therefore, more willing to turn the locals into an anti-Russian force. Thus, he did things like creating a personal guard consisting of Belorussians, allowing the creation of local political and welfare organisations and making the teaching of Belorussian compulsory at local schools, while forbidding Polish and Russian.

Therefore, despite it being more like "the worst case" and "the slightly less bad alternative", there were variations in administration in the occupied Eastern territories. In my view, if Germany won the war there would be massacres dialed up to 11, but in the early 1950s, the imminent economic collapse due to the Eastern territories having been royally screwed and the economy having overheated way too much would force Berlin to halt at least the genocidal part of the plan and turn death to forced labor /slavery.

But this is only one of many possibilities, as much depends on when the Führer dies, the dynamics between the many power centres in Germany like the army, the Party, the SS, the bureaucracy, the business elite etc. By that I mean that we could see almost everything, from Eastern Europe being turned to a gigantic version of Khmer Rouge Cambodia, to an occupied East with Germans being pushed to settle in areas like the Baltic region, Crimea and southern Ukraine and the locals reduced to second-tier citizens, to (in case the Nazis screw things up too much even for their liking and in any case, a rather unlikely, but not impossible, scenario) the creation of puppet states in the East ala Brest Litovsk (but with much more blood and close supervision by Berlin). Because, as mentioned above, National Socialism would most likely ITTL as well prove to be extremely fluid as an ideology and thus many could and would frame it, define it and spin it as they liked in order to get over practical difficulties.
 
In OTL, right-wing groups and conservative elites throughout the third world had no option other than to work with the US. But in a Nazi victory timeline, there are two superpowers that could each provide support. So I think a lot of conservative autocrats in places like Latin America, South Africa or Asia could try to play the two sides off each other in order to get a better deal. This could lead to the US (like OTL) providing support to many regimes with questionable human rights records, such as South Africa. If Washington gets too critical of Aprtheid, then suddenly the Kriegsmarine sails into Capetown, so Washington has an incentive to support minority rule. On the other hand, if Brazil or Argentina gets too friendly to Berlin, then suddenly there's a new American-backed junta in Brasilia or Buenos AIres, so autocrats would also need to walk along a tightrope.

Overall, I could see very fluid, changing alliances form throughout the third world, and within many of those countries different coalitions would form, some pro-American and some pro-German, with the potential for internecine conflict.
 
It recently struck me that the politics of nuclear weapons would be different. After 1945, there would be no talk of international control of the bomb, there would be no test like Crossroads (to which Soviet observers were invited), no Smyth report, and quite likely no civilian control (through the AEC) of atomic material. The brief liminal period of 1945-1947 or so, when it was not clear that a Cold War would happen between the US and USSR, would not occur in a timeline like Fatherland or the AANW. The Cold War would start as soon as the ink dried on the armistice agreement between the western allies and the Nazis.

Historically, the US did not have the ability to successfully wage atomic war against the USSR until the early 1950s; there simply were too few bombs, too few planes, too few bases from which to launch the attack, too few trained crews, and the issue of civilian control of nuclear weapons. See this book for info. However, the nuclear buildup and improvements in technology, training and readiness that happened under LeMay probably would happen earlier in a Nazi victory timeline.
 
There’s no way the Nazis are hiding Generalplan Ost and that would make the Holocaust look like a birthday party.
Within a few years of a Nazi victory it’s safe to say that almost every Jew in Europe would be dead which would be impossible to hide once the Jews that escaped tell their story and the Reich readily brags about solving the Jewish question for all time.
 
Within a few years of a Nazi victory it’s safe to say that almost every Jew in Europe would be dead which would be impossible to hide once the Jews that escaped tell their story and the Reich readily brags about solving the Jewish question for all time.
I could see it both ways; that the Reich might either (as you said) brag about solving the Jewish Question - or that it would make it a top state secret like we see in Fatherland.
 
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