American North Sakhalin

[Magnum]

Random idea I had - the US sponsors a White Russian rump state on North Sakhalin, following the collapse of the Whites in Siberia, in exchange for a naval base, as a means of putting pressure on Japan.

What kind of geopolitical consequences are we looking at? No Washington Naval Treaty? Earlier Japanese militarism? The Bolsheviks do something crazy? What else?

 

[overoceans]

So this is happening in the early 1920s then? What was the American attitude toward Japan at that point? I know that Teddy Roosevelt was generally okay with Japanese ascension when he negotiated Portsmouth, 1905 thereabouts. And of course Japan had fought World War I on the same side as the Yanks, and remained broadly pro-capitalist afterwards.

Was Japan by the 1920s being viewed as a rival to US power, such that the US would want to "put pressure" on them? If anything, I woulda thought that the Americans would be more freaked-out by the Bolsheviks at that point, and aim the pressure "northward", as it were. But the interwar years have always been pretty blurry to me.

 

[Terço]

Its a white russian rump state protected by US or a direct occupation of a russian territory by the US ?

 

[Intosh]

If the USA want a naval base in the northern Pacific, they can build one on the US Aleutians islands without alienating directly the Soviet Union and Japan.

1920's USA are isolationnist and they greatly reduced their armed forces and are not willing to be involved in foreign adventures.

 

[Veiovis]

So the isolationist, penny-pinching Americas prop up an entirely unviable joke of a failed state on some godforsaken artic island at great expensive, spend their tiny military budgment at building a naval base in unfavorable terrain much too close to a major rival, and in turn piss of both Japan and the Soviets, whose infiltrators and spies will make up about 50% of the "states" population? Yeah...

 

[Magnum]

Its a white russian rump state protected by US or a direct occupation of a russian territory by the US ?

The first one

 

[Terço]

The first one

Then , eventually the russian bear will be knocking on the door after the war in eurasia is over .
Probably , full scale war , because Moscow will see that as a direct intrusion of the US in russian internal affairs .
Its easy and less bloody to build a base in the Aleutan .
And why would US get bogged in a war whit Russia for something like Sakhalin ?
They dont care about white russians to the point of entering a war whit a great power .
Russia wont stay weakened forever and after invading Sakhalin will invade Alaska because they will see the american intervention as an act of war

 

[Magnum]

Then , eventually the russian bear will be knocking on the door after the war in eurasia is over .
Probably , full scale war , because Moscow will see that as a direct intrusion of the US in russian internal affairs .
Its easy and less bloody to build a base in the Aleutan .
And why would US get bogged in a war whit Russia for something like Sakhalin ?
They dont care about white russians to the point of entering a war whit a great power .
Russia wont stay weakened forever and after invading Sakhalin will invade Alaska because they will see the american intervention as an act of war

and then they march all the way to DC and plant the Red Flag atop the White House!

 

[Terço]

and then they march all the way to DC and plant the Red Flag atop the White House!

You defended the teory that the US could sponsor a rogue state in a part of the territory of a great power and that great power will just watch .
Thats ASB
Rússia is not a banana republic .
And they wont march strait to DC , Canada , another sovereign country would not allow that
Not all countries are US bitches , and what you are proposing is just that .

 

[Cudymcar]

Half of Sakhalin belonged to Japan since 1905, and in 1920 Japanese occupied all the territory. Also, Whites never had any control there. Pure ASB.

 

[Arkenfolm]

You defended the teory that the US could sponsor a rogue state in a part of the territory of a great power and that great power will just watch .
Thats ASB
Rússia is not a banana republic .
And they wont march strait to DC , Canada , another sovereign country would not allow that
Not all countries are US bitches , and what you are proposing is just that .

Russia during the revolution and subsequent civil war was much closer to a banana republic than a great power. They have way too many fronts to watch between all the White Russian warlords and foreign intervention. The biggest problem isn't Russians (North Sakhalin is sparsely populated), it's the Japanese who'd rather not have an American base next door.

Or more precisely the biggest problem is the American public which wants absolutely none of this considering the post-war economy was terrible and the Russians and Japanese are at the other end of the ocean and don't need to be poked directly.

 

[Terço]

Russia during the revolution and subsequent civil war was much closer to a banana republic than a great power. They have way too many fronts to watch between all the White Russian warlords and foreign intervention. The biggest problem isn't Russians (North Sakhalin is sparsely populated), it's the Japanese who'd rather not have an American base next door.

Or more precisely the biggest problem is the American public which wants absolutely none of this considering the post-war economy was terrible and the Russians and Japanese are at the other end of the ocean and don't need to be poked directly.

True , but external threats like invasions tend to unite the factions in a civil war
First some kind of rotten peace that allows a reaction to US latter they can go back to the civil war.
The winner wants all of Russia , and annexation of russian land by an external foe , will create the dynamics for a quick victory of one of the factions and centralization of the russian state that comes out of it .
Banana republics arent empires in convultion and public opinion is not the only factor stoping US from conquering the world

 

[TimTurner]

Well if this does last it seems like one of the best ways to produce Japan and the Soviets being in one firm block against the US.

 

[Arkenfolm]

True , but external threats like invasions tend to unite the factions in a civil war
First some kind of rotten peace that allows a reaction to US latter they can go back to the civil war.
The winner wants all of Russia , and annexation of russian land by an external foe , will create the dynamics for a quick victory of one of the factions and centralization of the russian state that comes out of it .
Banana republics arent empires in convultion and public opinion is not the only factor stoping US from conquering the world

Intervention in the Russian Civil War is OTL, including 15,000 American soldiers (10,000 of whom served in the Russian Far East). As the White Movement faltered they were needed to prop them up and from their perspective this is either their last best hope for survival or its a noble but wasted effort against the tide of communism. By the time it's feasible to tell the Whites on the mainland to evacuate to Sakhalin, most surviving Whites will be in exile. The Soviets wouldn't gain any strength or extra support from it since from their perspective it's yet another White Russian warlord state propped up by foreign imperialists.

The only people who would really care are the Japanese since that's direct American imperialism right next door to Japan (or from the perspective of many Japanese militarists, in Japan).

 

[TimTurner]

Intervention in the Russian Civil War is OTL, including 15,000 American soldiers (10,000 of whom served in the Russian Far East). As the White Movement faltered they were needed to prop them up and from their perspective this is either their last best hope for survival or its a noble but wasted effort against the tide of communism. By the time it's feasible to tell the Whites on the mainland to evacuate to Sakhalin, most surviving Whites will be in exile. The Soviets wouldn't gain any strength or extra support from it since from their perspective it's yet another White Russian warlord state propped up by foreign imperialists

The only people who would really care are the Japanese since that's direct American imperialism right next door to Japan (or from the perspective of many Japanese militarists, in Japan).

I do think that even if this north sakhalin thing happened and endured, the Soviets would waste no time in complaining about the American presence and it would drive the Soviets on a fundamentally different geopolitical path. It'd be too much of a threat to ignore.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

The Soviets would probably sell North Sakhalin to Imperial Japan just to play the US and Japan against each other. They cut a deal with Japan to give them the right to exploit oil in the place OTL, plus Japan tried to buy North Sakhalin but the Soviets demanded too high a price.