American invasion

I don't get all the egotistical bravado ... China vs USA ...

China has a military force 1.5 times the size of the USA ...
China has a population 4 times the size of the USA ...
China has the second largest and possibly the most modern navy, in size only beaten by the USA ...
China's production capacity seems limitless the USA has been or still is in decline (lets call it a period of readjustment) ...

Now I'm not saying that China will win, could win or wouldn't be wiped out ... I can't say what the quality of either nations equipment or competence is but the way some of you are talking its almost like all the US has to do is turn round at the same time, wave your butts in China's general direction and fart at the same time and the whole Chinese navy will sink ... there would be huge loses on both sides and maybe the rest of the world would be a better place for it!!

Simple enough the question wasn't could the US invade China but whether China could invade the US. Even if China somehow defeats the USN what about the USAF? EVERYTHING China needs they need to ship. The US is playing on their home turf.
 
Simple enough the question wasn't could the US invade China but whether China could invade the US. Even if China somehow defeats the USN what about the USAF? EVERYTHING China needs they need to ship. The US is playing on their home turf.

Please read again what I have written ... I am not disagreeing with you, just with some peoples attitude that there won't be a single US death ... because it wil be THAT easy!!
 
Please read again what I have written ... I am not disagreeing with you, just with some peoples attitude that there won't be a single US death ... because it wil be THAT easy!!

There'd be American casualties, I'm sure the Navy would take losses. However, casualties would be heavily skewed against the Chinese. The Chinese would damage the Pacific fleet, but at the cost of the PLAN being knocked out as an effective fighting force. What sane Premier would allow such to happen?
 
Folks, to be honest we already have China right where we want them. And, in fact, the USA and China are married economically, at least for the forseeable future.

China has problems we in the USA wouldn't want to have. First, China isn't evenly developed. As a rule, the further west you go, the less the development. Second, pollution. Fast development has resulted in major environmental problems. This week the air pollution in Beijing reached an all-time high - most haxardous. Third, demographics. The Chinese population is aging faster than the US population. The "one-child" policy is starting to bite China's ass with fangs of steel. A son of a one-child family marries a daughter of another one-child family. Keep in mind there's no Social Security in China. Children primarily support aging parents. So the young married couple may end up having to support themselves, their child, and up to four parents. Not a real good situation.

Re foreign exchange holdings and US Government debt, China is scared shitless we' ll print money to inflate the national debt away, making their foreign exchange reserves decline in value. They are petrified at any possibility the US Government will default on its' debts. Likely? No. Possible? Anything is possible. And China holds so many US dollars that any attempt to do any sustained large-scale movement out of dollars will cause major problems on the world foreign exchange markets.

Most of all, the Chinese government is scared shitless trying to keep the lid on popular discontent. As people's lives under authoritarian systems improve economically, people also want their lives improved politically. Transitioning from an authoritarian system to a democratic system isn't easy and is fraught with perils. Taiwan did it in the 80's. South Korea did it in the late 70's and 80's, at the cost of some significant unrest. Both countries were small and had a lot of US influence. China is a whole different animal - much bigger, no real official US influence, and widespread social media. I bet there are a lot of sleepless nights in Beijing worrying about how to keep things under control.

No, the LAST thing China wants or needs is a war with the USA. And frankly, for all our problems, our problems are relatively solvable, without resort to major internal bloodshed. China...not so much.
 

Robert

Banned
The size of a Navy is not as important as it's ability to project power over long distances.. The United States Navy has been doing that for two hundred years (remember the Shores of Tripoli?). While China has been spending considerable sums of money on their military, it is in essence a "Frigate Navy." In order to project power, let alone attempt an invasion of the continental United States, it would have aircraft carriers. Not only that, but they would have to be more numerous and at least as capable as America's. Anything less then that and no invasion force could make such a landing and hope to survive.

Furthermore, it's not enough to get troops ashore. They would need to be supplied, and reinforced. Admiral Yamamoto during World War Two said that in order to win he would have to dictate terms from the White House. That was meant to show the utter insanity of attempting to march three thousand miles across North America with a supply line over water nine thousand miles long.
 
I'd bet that the Chinese leadership behind such a decision would be discreetly overthrown and put to work on a very remote educational farm. Maybe the new ruling faction would then send an envoy or two to the United States to explain in detail how China is going to be working on its leadership cadre's mental healthcare plan or something like that.

I can't see anything good coming out of the scenario for anyone if such a plan goes forward.
 
Folks, to be honest we already have China right where we want them. And, in fact, the USA and China are married economically, at least for the forseeable future.

China has problems we in the USA wouldn't want to have. First, China isn't evenly developed. As a rule, the further west you go, the less the development. Second, pollution. Fast development has resulted in major environmental problems. This week the air pollution in Beijing reached an all-time high - most haxardous. Third, demographics. The Chinese population is aging faster than the US population. The "one-child" policy is starting to bite China's ass with fangs of steel. A son of a one-child family marries a daughter of another one-child family. Keep in mind there's no Social Security in China. Children primarily support aging parents. So the young married couple may end up having to support themselves, their child, and up to four parents. Not a real good situation.

Re foreign exchange holdings and US Government debt, China is scared shitless we' ll print money to inflate the national debt away, making their foreign exchange reserves decline in value. They are petrified at any possibility the US Government will default on its' debts. Likely? No. Possible? Anything is possible. And China holds so many US dollars that any attempt to do any sustained large-scale movement out of dollars will cause major problems on the world foreign exchange markets.

Most of all, the Chinese government is scared shitless trying to keep the lid on popular discontent. As people's lives under authoritarian systems improve economically, people also want their lives improved politically. Transitioning from an authoritarian system to a democratic system isn't easy and is fraught with perils. Taiwan did it in the 80's. South Korea did it in the late 70's and 80's, at the cost of some significant unrest. Both countries were small and had a lot of US influence. China is a whole different animal - much bigger, no real official US influence, and widespread social media. I bet there are a lot of sleepless nights in Beijing worrying about how to keep things under control.

No, the LAST thing China wants or needs is a war with the USA. And frankly, for all our problems, our problems are relatively solvable, without resort to major internal bloodshed. China...not so much.

This is a pretty thoughtful answer.

What he said!
 
Please read again what I have written ... I am not disagreeing with you, just with some peoples attitude that there won't be a single US death ... because it wil be THAT easy!!

I explicitly said Americans would obviously die. In some ASB Op Flashpoint style war over a disputed island somewhere where neither side is on home ground, a US v China war would be interesting. In this scenario, the Americans rob ably drop a couple of tactical nukes in the middle of the Chinese fleet. Boring but the numbers don't matter when you can't get ashore - you have a habit of making this mistake, I remember a lengthy Sealion thread with you at its heart.
 

Kongzilla

Banned
I hear China has a sophisticated cyber warfare section. If for some reason they do decide to invade america couldn't they really mess up the American Armed forces. At least for a while.
 
The Chinese aren't to dismissed lightly.
Maybe by 2030, they'll be able to field a blue-water navy to seriously challenge USN dominance of the Pacific but unless I'm way off on relative force strengths in 2013- the PRC'd be committing suicide as it stands trying to trade punches with the USA.

I'm with Otis R Needleman and modelcitizen, it's an ASB scenario for all the reasons they stated.

@ Kongzilla
As far as cyberwarfare's concerned, we're well aware of the Chinese cyberwarfare capabilities and it goes both ways. They'd be able to make a few messes, but we'd burn them so bad they'd go from 21st century to 19th century in an hour or two as far as C4I's concerned w/o EMP blasting them. In modern warfare, that's a death sentence.
 
What would happen if China invaded America for the money America owes them? What countries would support which side and who would be most probable to win?

The whole world teams up against China, because collecting debts by starting a nuclear war is nearly too stupid to discuss. China lacks the civil cohesion to survive the sudden end of trade, to say nothing of imminent nuclear war. The USA nationalizes all Chinese Assets in the United States, announces it will pay $.01 for the entire Trillion Dollars in Debt China has, then produces to sink the Entire People's Army Navy off California.

China doesn't launch its nukes, because the world has made it very clear they will accept a full American Counterstroke if that happens. The USA doesn't, because it has no need to do so. After a coup and massive meltdown, the post revolutionary China accepts the $.01 for their debts and executes the moronic individuals that risked world war through a basic failure to understand economics.

Does China opt to reduce its nuclear arsenal? What would a post coup China look like? And how much better would the USA be if it had this kind of short, highly victorious war of self defense with minimal losses and a gigantic "renegotiation" with its new enemy that enabled it to cut its payout to an untrustworthy nation?
 

Kongzilla

Banned
What's Russia doing in all this. I wonder if they'd lone some of their nuclear arsenal to china for "Defensive Precautions". By that time they realize the Russian Premier has just been Putin them on.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I don't get all the egotistical bravado ... China vs USA ...

China has a military force 1.5 times the size of the USA ...
China has a population 4 times the size of the USA ...
China has the second largest and possibly the most modern navy, in size only beaten by the USA ...
China's production capacity seems limitless the USA has been or still is in decline (lets call it a period of readjustment) ...

Now I'm not saying that China will win, could win or wouldn't be wiped out ... I can't say what the quality of either nations equipment or competence is but the way some of you are talking its almost like all the US has to do is turn round at the same time, wave your butts in China's general direction and fart at the same time and the whole Chinese navy will sink ... there would be huge loses on both sides and maybe the rest of the world would be a better place for it!!

Well, the fact that the PLAN would have to cross the entire Pacific ocean with a military force large enough to invade what is effectively an entire Continental Land Mass. with a brown water navy, most of which lacks the range to reach the U.S. without stopping multiple times to fuel, while being opposed by a force that outnumbers the PLAN in every category from CVN to ocean going tugs, generally on the order of 10-1 probably plays a role. (A couple of telling stats: CVN: USN - 11 (3), PLAN - 1 (not worked up), SSN: USN - 55 (4, 4), PLAN - 8 (2-4) CG/DDG/FFG: USN - 22/62/ (7), PLAN - 26/16 (10)

The fact that the entire PLAN amphibious force had the lift to move LESS than ONE ARMORED DIVISION contra-indicates an invasion attempt of a country with a Marine Corps (not the U.S. Army mind you, just the Corps) numbering over 200,000 active troops (and an additional 40K in active reserve) seems to indicate that the chances of mounting any sort of credible invasion is remote.

The fact that it was impossible to launch cross ocean invasions of continental land masses even before the introduction of nuclear weapons is another reason. (If the Allies hadn't had the British Isles to use as a massive staging area the invasion of France would never have even be a fantasy.) Now, in the nuclear age, where an invasion fleet or fleets in mid-ocean is probably about the ONLY possible target for a nuclear weapon that would not result in war crime trials for the side that fired first the entire idea is simply ludicrous.

The fact that the U.S. is the ONLY market where the PRC still has a positive cash flow in Balance of Trade is another contra indication, as is the previously mentioned fact that the U.S. would be able to simply cancel the Treasury notes held by the PRC in the case of active hostilities like this. (not that the PRC has all that much in actual debt held, the U.S. Government's Agencies owe more to each other than the total value of the debt held by the PRC)
 
If the US says we are not going to pay you, surely the rest of the world wound say the same thing and maybe to each other as well. Is it something like if, you owe the bank £100 is your problem, if you owe the bank £1,000,000 it's their problem?
Or am I missing the whole point?
 
Well, the fact that the PLAN would have to cross the entire Pacific ocean with a military force large enough to invade what is effectively an entire Continental Land Mass. with a brown water navy, most of which lacks the range to reach the U.S. without stopping multiple times to fuel, while being opposed by a force that outnumbers the PLAN in every category from CVN to ocean going tugs, generally on the order of 10-1 probably plays a role. (A couple of telling stats: CVN: USN - 11 (3), PLAN - 1 (not worked up), SSN: USN - 55 (4, 4), PLAN - 8 (2-4) CG/DDG/FFG: USN - 22/62/ (7), PLAN - 26/16 (10)

The fact that the entire PLAN amphibious force had the lift to move LESS than ONE ARMORED DIVISION contra-indicates an invasion attempt of a country with a Marine Corps (not the U.S. Army mind you, just the Corps) numbering over 200,000 active troops (and an additional 40K in active reserve) seems to indicate that the chances of mounting any sort of credible invasion is remote.

The fact that it was impossible to launch cross ocean invasions of continental land masses even before the introduction of nuclear weapons is another reason. (If the Allies hadn't had the British Isles to use as a massive staging area the invasion of France would never have even be a fantasy.) Now, in the nuclear age, where an invasion fleet or fleets in mid-ocean is probably about the ONLY possible target for a nuclear weapon that would not result in war crime trials for the side that fired first the entire idea is simply ludicrous.

The fact that the U.S. is the ONLY market where the PRC still has a positive cash flow in Balance of Trade is another contra indication, as is the previously mentioned fact that the U.S. would be able to simply cancel the Treasury notes held by the PRC in the case of active hostilities like this. (not that the PRC has all that much in actual debt held, the U.S. Government's Agencies owe more to each other than the total value of the debt held by the PRC)

Basically hit the nail on the head.

China doesn't have the sea-lift to invade the US.

It's Navy is horribly outclassed in both technology, experience and quality.

China's economy would collapse faster than you can say "Women hen ben".
 
Please read again what I have written ... I am not disagreeing with you, just with some peoples attitude that there won't be a single US death ... because it wil be THAT easy!!

But it would be that easy, if it happened today. Obviously America will take some casualties, but China will take far more.

Maybe in the future, at least 20 years, but not today.

America spends more than the next 11 countries in the WORLD on military spending. Many of THOSE countries are allies.

China has a mediocre navy and mediocre airforce and tit for tat the average American infantrymen has better equipment and training than his Chinese equivalent.

America has force projection. China does not.
America will have logistical superiority. China will not.
America will have air superiority almost immediately. China will not.
America will have naval superiority almost immediately. China will not.
America will have diplomatic superiority almost immediately. China will not.
*NATO, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia isn't friendly to China either, India,*
America will have popular support amongst its populace. China will not.

Now maybe in a few decades this will all change and American Hegemony will be seriously questioned. I seriously disagree with alot of America's foreign policy but it is foolish to think that any power on Earth could come anywhere near fighting America in the field.
 
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