raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
A prerequisite may have to be an abnormally quiet Middle East. No second intifada, no 9/11, no 2nd Iraq war and sequels, but neocons in power with a compulsion to "throw an 'expletive' country up against the wall".
American invasion of Cuba during the 1990s or 2000s
- Thread starter walmart
- Start date
The United States would not be able to occupy Cuba for long, earlier or later they'd have to withdraw. This may seem odd, considering the size and isolation of Cuba, aswell as the military might of the United States, however that's how it'd be.
Though the cuban military only has an active personal of 90.000 men, they do have a reserve force of 1.5 million men which would be mobilized in case of war.
Moreover there's the Territorial Troops Militia (MTT), an exclusively civilian volunteer force, that has a size of over 1.2 million men. In case of invasion this militia, possesing only rudimentary training and light armory, would be mobilized, it's main roles beeing to...
1.) ...defend local areas.
2.) ...support combat operation by constructing
fortifications, emplacing obstacles, and
providing essential rear services such as
security patrols and traffic control.
3.) ...augment or replace regular units in last-
ditch defense efforts.
4.) ...to conduct guerilla warfare should cuba
become occupied by foreign forces.
Once conventional resistance breaks down (which could take quite some time due to the afore mentioned factors) the MTT would form the foundation for a guerilla force, and since large parts of Cuba are covered by forests and mountains long term guerilla operations are sustainable. Since most cubans firmly support the communist party passive resistance, such as sabotage and the gathering of supplies for guerilla forces, would also be very widespread.
To sum it up, there is a reason why the United States never invaded Cuba. Though small, it is a very hard nut to crack. Furthermore solidarity with Cuba would be widespread among leftists all over the world, and some formidable protests would take place in many countries.
Though the cuban military only has an active personal of 90.000 men, they do have a reserve force of 1.5 million men which would be mobilized in case of war.
Moreover there's the Territorial Troops Militia (MTT), an exclusively civilian volunteer force, that has a size of over 1.2 million men. In case of invasion this militia, possesing only rudimentary training and light armory, would be mobilized, it's main roles beeing to...
1.) ...defend local areas.
2.) ...support combat operation by constructing
fortifications, emplacing obstacles, and
providing essential rear services such as
security patrols and traffic control.
3.) ...augment or replace regular units in last-
ditch defense efforts.
4.) ...to conduct guerilla warfare should cuba
become occupied by foreign forces.
Once conventional resistance breaks down (which could take quite some time due to the afore mentioned factors) the MTT would form the foundation for a guerilla force, and since large parts of Cuba are covered by forests and mountains long term guerilla operations are sustainable. Since most cubans firmly support the communist party passive resistance, such as sabotage and the gathering of supplies for guerilla forces, would also be very widespread.
To sum it up, there is a reason why the United States never invaded Cuba. Though small, it is a very hard nut to crack. Furthermore solidarity with Cuba would be widespread among leftists all over the world, and some formidable protests would take place in many countries.
McPherson
Banned
1. Cuba is an island.
2. America has done it before.
With 1 and 2, (see map above and remember 1898 and the Banana Wars) want to estimate how long that "militia" lasts? Or the "leftist" solidarity?
The result is probably a long-running insurgency after the US dismembers the Cuban armed forces. The war is going to be hilariously unpopular abroad even if the US can maintain an occupation for quite some time thanks to the insulation of the public from the military. The Americans will inflict disproportionate casualties on the Cuban guerillas, but I doubt the US literally invading Cuba will endear them to the general populace, especially with how badly the US botched this sort of thing in Iraq. I would not go so far as to call it another Vietnam but it would be extremely unpleasant for both the Cuban people and the US soldiers sent to fight and die needlessly.
They were fears in Cuba that the USA would invade with similar justification to the invasion and overthrow of Panama's Noriega based on many high level Cuban officials being linked to the drug trade. This was the motivation behind the arrest and execution General and essentially third in command behind the Castro brothers Arnaldo Ochoa in 1989. Say this never happens, and the USA invades Cuba on a similar justification to Panama in 1990. On a side note, the Castro brothers were also heavily linked to the drug trade, and at this time Fidel was reportedly so irrational and hypocritical in his taking down of corrupt officials that Raul feared for his own life. There could potentially be a coup or civil war in the country if Fidel went so far as to murder his own brother.
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As for US domestic politics, would the American people really support a war where aging Batista Cubans from Miami want to recapture their pre-1959 glory days in Havana? Would a Clinton or Bush Junior administration would prefer to see a democratically elected Cuban presidency instead of a Mafia don?
You don't need majority support from the US population, let alone full support. As long as casualty counts are relatively low, the US Army is composed of volunteers, and the war doesn't dominate the newscycle I think the US government can fight the war pretty much indefinitely.
This is what would probably stop the United States from doing it. It's just too risky, even through is the right thing to do. The Cuban people on the island have long become accustomed to the regime and therefore the vast majority do not dream of a democratic system or actively try to organize to overthrow Castroism (which why I'm really scared of what's going on in Venezuela).
I don't think that an invasion of Cuba in this period of time is likely, but in any case Cuba wouldn't have been ruled by a mafia don. The Cuban exile has many good leaders and some of them might be capable of running a country, and the majority of them aren't Batista Cubans. Celia Cruz certainly wasn't.
As for Bush, considering the fact that 80% of the Cuban Americans voted for him in 2000 and 2004 he certainly would have been very interested in the prospect of a democratic Cuba. Same for Clinton.