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This isn't a scenario in the usual sense. I don't point to an event that would cause Europeans to not arrive in the New World and the timeline isn't wedded to a particular cause for Europeans not arriving.
This is purely what I think would happen in the New World if for some reason the Europeans (and the Chinese, Japanese, etc) didn't reach the New World until 1939 or thereabout. I used it as background for a published novel (All Timelines Lead to Rome) and a so far unpublished novella (New Galveston).
If American Indians had continued to develop relatively independent of Europeans, how would they have developed? It’s impossible to know, but it is possible to make reasonable speculations. Once again, I won’t concern myself with why European influence is gone. The focus is purely on what might have happened without that influence. I’ll eventually go from 1492 to 1939, when the events that set up New Galveston take place.
1492 to 1700: The big American Indian empires of the Incas and Aztecs still have some years of expanding left. They will do that expanding during this period.
The Aztecs are approaching the natural limits of their expansion. They can expand northeast, and they do. They take control of more and more Huaxtec territory. The Huaxtecs are one of several groups at the fringes of MesoAmerica that have large populations, cities and many cultural similarities with the people of Central Mexico, but also have a lot of cultural differences.
As the Aztecs move north, Independence-minded Huaxtecs are forced north ahead of them, but climate and soil there allow very limited agriculture. The Huaxtecs are in very tenuous indirect contact with the fringes of the Mississippian Mound Builders. As the Aztecs push north, Huaxtecs that remain independent are forced to orient their economy north and trade with the Mississippians becomes more important and direct. They develop coastal trade routes that eventually reach the mouth of the Mississippi.
To the northwest of the Aztecs, the Tarascan Empire makes Aztec expansion difficult. The Tarascans have a smaller, but much more cohesive empire than the Aztecs. The two empires bumped heads several times before 1492. They continue to do so, with inconclusive results. The Tarascans continue to expand at the expense of poorly known groups to their north and west. The Aztec bypass the Tarascans to the south and try to work their way north up the Pacific coast to eventually surround Tarascans. Western Mexico becomes a major battleground for the two empires, with conspiracies and shifting alliances.
To their south, the Aztecs run into the unfamiliar ecology of tropical rainforests. That doesn’t stop them from extorting tribute from economically important areas, but it limits their interest in the area.
The Aztecs also press against the Tlaxcallans who form a hostile island of independent territory inside the Aztec empire. The Tlaxcallans are excellent fighters and it takes many years to wear them down, but the Aztecs force the Tlaxcallans to pay tribute by 1570. The Tlaxcallans revolt every decade or two, but are as firmly under Aztec control as the rest of the Aztec Empire by 1700.
More under next rock.
----- If you're interested in the stories I set in this world, rough drafts of New Galveston and the first several chapters of All Timelines Lead to Rome are available in the Writer's Forum section of this board.
If you're interested in what might have happened in Europe and Asia to prevent colonization of the New World, the AH background in Europe for All Timelines is at: