American Indian Trajectory

[rewster]

I'm sure many of you are familiar with this site: http://members.aol.com/althist1/June02/trajectory.htm
Let's not get into specific PoD's here, but just assume somehow Europe and Asia are preoccupied in some way and never make their way over to the New World... so obviously naval tech progress and exploration is slowed dramatically, and there is no such thing as manned flight.

What do you think the New World in such a scenario would look like today?
Would they have made any technological progress? What sort of progress? What cultures would rise and fall, and which ones would be dominant 514 years after Columbus didn't show?

Feel free to expand on the linked timeline or generate your own ideas.

Personally I think something big is going to come out of the interaction between the Tarascans and the Apaches/Navajos. Certainly at first they aren't going to be too friendly, but if the Tarascans do indeed obtain Apache bows, they'll probably put a lot of pressure on the Aztecs, and make peace to their north when possible. I think the apaches and/or navajos would possibly benefit from the peace also, possibly beginning to work with bronze and eventually using that to carve out a small empire in the southwest, probably subjugating the peublos and later styling themselves after the pueblos, becoming a sedentary society, only now with advanced metal working as well as advanced irrigation and agriculture.

Speculating heavily, I think perhaps the sort of sailing rafts theorized to have operated out of ecuador may over time bring western Mexico in more steady contact with South America. I think turkeys and llamas may be exchanged, taken first to the respective tribal chiefs who initiate trade as curiosities/status symbols, then later, as more is learned of their role in the land of their origin, the two animals may be put to more widespread use. This probably takes a century or two, before the llamas are a common site throughout Mexico and the turkey is common throughout the more civilized parts of South America. I don't however believe that chickens and especially pigs will ever make it to South America. If anything, I think polynesian contact would bring better seafaring knowledge to those who they traded with. Though chickens do have an outside shot of making the trip.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

In OTL, the Dene-speaking tribes didn't arrive in the Southwest until the 1500's. Assuming they're not butterflied away, the Aztec/Tarascan rivalry will almost certainly be a dead issue by the time their "Siberian-style" bows appear in Mexico.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Andean domesticated potatos would probably also have made it north, given frequent contacts.

Most of a milennium ago, the Chimu (and then the Incans, who conquered them) were in the early stages of the Bronze Age. Given another 500+ years, and the abundance of mineral resources in Peru, have the Incas or their successors made it to the Iron Age?

The wheel was known. Have roads developed, and are wheeled conveyances invented?

 

[rewster]

In OTL, the Dene-speaking tribes didn't arrive in the Southwest until the 1500's. Assuming they're not butterflied away, the Aztec/Tarascan rivalry will almost certainly be a dead issue by the time their "Siberian-style" bows appear in Mexico.

Well, let's assume nobody is butterflied away. Individuals and clans perhaps, but at least major migrations like the Na-Dene should still progress pretty much as OTL. I'd imagine that, even if the Aztec/Tarascan rivalry was dead by the time the Navajos made trade contacts with them, at least one of the two would be around to say hi. (Of course, the hi might be less polite if there isn't already a war on...)

Andean domesticated potatos would probably also have made it north, given frequent contacts.

Most of a milennium ago, the Chimu (and then the Incans, who conquered them) were in the early stages of the Bronze Age. Given another 500+ years, and the abundance of mineral resources in Peru, have the Incas or their successors made it to the Iron Age?

The wheel was known. Have roads developed, and are wheeled conveyances invented?

Potatoes! Forgot about those. I think you are right, they'd have a big impact on North America. Potatoes are already well adapted to many different climates, having been grown by the Tawatinsuya throughout their empire... they contain more food energy per land used than just about any other crop, and aren't really difficult to grow or harvest. They had a big impact on Europe once people got over the initial superstition. And I don't suspect North American natives to have the same superstition about "devil's apples".
There might be a lot more people around if potatoes were to spread north.

A peruvian iron age is a possibility, at least the beginnings of one. 500 years may be enough, possibly not, but either way it would only just be getting started.

I somewhat doubt wheels really take off any more than they did in OTL. The lack of draught animals (except the llama) is a big hindrance, obviously. Even llamas can only pull carts, nothing like the wagons, sleighs, carriages, etc. that horses can haul. Pack llamas just make more sense than llama carts anyway, and the same with dogs, except for sled dogs. A pack llama can traverse all kinds of terrain that a cart can't, and for the Inca, that's pretty much most of their terrain. The only place where carts would make sense would be the great plains, and the llamas themselves might not fare too well there, due to the daytime heat.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Ahh, but you are positing increased contact between North and South America. While the wheel may not be especially suitable for the Andes, the idea can spread, as will the domesticated llama.


Bronze Age, llama-drawn chariots and wagons on the Great Plains are not too far fetched at all. And the Incan territories, while mountainous, were not cold in the daytime. Far from it. If anything, the heat will give rise to adapted versions, or the coats will be frequently sheared, or related animals like guanacos, vicunas or alpacas may be sent north. And given the example of the llama, perhaps North American natives might try to domesticate other animals for that purpose.


P.S., As far as iron goes, among many other minerals, Peru has vanadium deposits. Vanadium is evidently one of the crucial components for Damascus steel...

 

[rewster]

You know, you're absolutely correct about the llamas... they will adapt, or they will be sheared more frequently, and then they will adapt. I think both the Aztec and Inca had the wheel... likely the Inca did not make use of it for reasons I suggested earlier, but the Aztec or other Mexican tribes may, when presented with a draught animal, immediately put it to use pulling carts. I think then using these for trade caravans, they spread north and reaching the plains, eventually develop into something like a chariot used for war. The plains indians in OTL adapted quickly to the horse. The chariot takes more resources, but with the bronze age spreading north, I think this is a reasonable speculation. My only question is, how fast can llamas run? Would they be able to run someone down if pulling a chariot? (a bronze age chariot, no less)

Any other speculations?
Would writing develop in S. America? Would a simpler form of writing evolve in mexico, like the Phoenician alphabet?
Does agriculture spread to California? How about the northwest? Do the Mississippian cultures decline, or do they advance, and what of the Cherokee, Iroquois, etc?

 

[arctic warrior]

Any other speculations?
Would writing develop in S. America? Would a simpler form of writing evolve in mexico, like the Phoenician alphabet?
Does agriculture spread to California? How about the northwest? Do the Mississippian cultures decline, or do they advance, and what of the Cherokee, Iroquois, etc?

Writing DID develop in Mexico, Central America by the Maya. It is being transcribed. It was a pictograph script that could over time, and in other areas develop into something closer to an alphabet.

Agriculture might spread into California by way of the South West.
The Mississippi cultures would get a boost from the potato, increase population and advance. The trade with Mexico would be a great help in this respect, bring in metal ware and spur local production, over time with mining in the Appalachians.
Other nations would, where possible, get access to advances spreading out like waves in a pond.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

They can run plenty fast enough. I understand they can gallop at 30-35 miles per hour for a fair distance, and they can move at a trot for much longer. And though llamas are smaller than horses, if you want to pull a heavier load such as a chariot or wagon, you can always hitch 2 or more llamas to it. (Think Ben Hur, but with llama drawn chariots-LOL!)

Some other interesting llama stuff:

Llamas live for about 20 years, weigh 250-300 pounds at adulthood. They are generally healthy, thrifty animals. A llama requires 10 to 20 percent of the feed of a horse. Llamas are quite efficient in using available forages. They can use a much lower grade forage than most ruminant species. They can maintain condition by foraging on low-quality range on about 5 percent of the area required by a horse. Llamas tend to be browsers, eating a small amount of forage intermittently. This feeding characteristic prevents them from being poisoned by ingesting toxic plants. Llamas' inherent hardiness helps them withstand extremes in feed quality and climate. The notable exception is extreme heat combined with high humidity. These types of conditions can adversely affect fertility and general health causing the animals to exhibit heat stress.

So llamas probably don't work in the Amazon rainforest, or in parts of Central America. But they look very good almost everywhere else, including areas which do not have good grazing for horses.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Would a simpler form of writing evolve in mexico, like the Phoenician alphabet?

Lack of a Phoenician-style alphabet isn't a tragedy. We do have the Egyptians and Chinese as counterexamples, after all.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Given the example of the llama, do some of the North American tribes domesticate the bison? I'd say they probably do. Now *that* is a draft animal!

 

[Flocculencio]

Given the example of the llama, do some of the North American tribes domesticate the bison? I'd say they probably do. Now *that* is a draft animal!

Depends on if bison are actually domesticable though- aren't they considered quite dangerous? That could preclude domestication with the resources, methods and technology available to pre-modern civilisations. Frex, zebra weren't successfully domesticated because, unlike horses, they're quite vicious and dangerous to human handlers.

 

[marl_d]

if the Inidans wanted to they probably could domesicate the Bison, all they would have to really do is breed the more docile ones together, the trick would be for the Indians to stop the nomatic lifestyle and settle down to actually do the domesicating, while possible it is easier for a group of nomades to follow a herd animal and hunt a small portion then set up large farms to domesicate the buffalo

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Depends on if bison are actually domesticable though- aren't they considered quite dangerous? That could preclude domestication with the resources, methods and technology available to pre-modern civilisations. Frex, zebra weren't successfully domesticated because, unlike horses, they're quite vicious and dangerous to human handlers.

Wild cattle are dangerous. *Anything* that big is dangerous. But bison have been more or less domesticated in America, in the last few decades. Tens of thousands of them are bred on farms for their meat, and in some cases, milk (though many, if not most of them have some admixture of cattle genes, i.e., they are "beefalo").

Think about two or three hundred years of domestication efforts by North American tribesmen, who with their burgeoning food supply (potatos), have the means to become sedentary, and who are looking for an alternative to expensive imported llamas as draft/plough animals. And the natural range of the buffalo covered most of the future United States, from the Appalachians to Oregon and California, down into northern Mexico, and up into the Canadian plains all the way through to the southern reaches of the Northwest Territory.

Of course, if you don't like bison as a candidate, the reindeer/caribou is pretty much a 'gimme'. They *have* been domesticated in Europe and Asia, most notably by the Lapps and Siberian tribesmen, so why not in North America? Historically, they ranged down into the American Rockies, around the Great Lakes in Minnesaota, Wisconsin and Michigan, and into northern New England. According to Wikipedia, Siberian reindeer were at one time ridden!

 

[rewster]

Depends on if bison are actually domesticable though- aren't they considered quite dangerous? That could preclude domestication with the resources, methods and technology available to pre-modern civilisations. Frex, zebra weren't successfully domesticated because, unlike horses, they're quite vicious and dangerous to human handlers.

I wonder how much the fact that a zebra wouldn't offer much more than a horse already gives you factors into that. Horses probably spread rapidly once they were domesticated... it was probably a question of buying a herd of horses or taming a bunch of really nasty zebras. Most anyone would save up and buy the horses.
Bison are probably domesticable as marl_d said... however, given a 500 year time frame for sailing raft trade to become a steady business, llamas to be imported to and adopted by Mexican tribes, llamas to spread to the plains, and then bison to be domesticated because the llama can't pull a decent plow... does this really happen?
The basic premise (sailing trade developing between north and south america) really isn't a sure thing, but even if it was, that's a lot to pack into half a millenium. (I think, anyway.)

Regarding the alphabet, it isn't a tragedy if they continue using glyphs, but it for the most part makes the learning curve higher for literacy, which, while good for empire building, is bad for the spread of knowledge and the generation of new and inventive ideas.

 

[Nicole]

It's likely the glyphs would be simplified as time went on- note how heiroglyphics evolved into demotic egyptian.

 

[rewster]

It's likely the glyphs would be simplified as time went on- note how heiroglyphics evolved into demotic egyptian.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking...
Regarding literacy though, check out this map from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Literacy.PNG
It seems literacy did not spread all that quickly in the ancient world... and really only spread rapidly after religions changed from anti- to pro- literacy belief systems... such as the Islamic fatwa regarding literacy as an individual religious obligation, rather than a privelege for the few... or the Puritan belief in the importance reading the Bible.

What chance is there of some sort of religious or other development leading to increased literacy in the Americas, given the above-stated half millenium time frame?

 

[Dave Howery]

no, bison are not domesticable... they have not been domesticated in modern times... they have been fenced in (barely.. they are notorious fence busters). They are not truly domesticated like cattle, and are dangerous... and would be even more so to any native american who tried to domesticate them without benefit of rifles. Basically, if bison were domesticable, they would have already done so by the native americans. North American caribou are essentially the same genetic species as Eurasian reindeer, but they have very different social habits and are not domesticable either. Llamas are all there is for large domestic animals in the Americas...

 

[Flocculencio]

I wonder how much the fact that a zebra wouldn't offer much more than a horse already gives you factors into that. Horses probably spread rapidly once they were domesticated... it was probably a question of buying a herd of horses or taming a bunch of really nasty zebras. Most anyone would save up and buy the horses.

Nope because the populations which lived the longest around zebra-bearing areas didn't have access to horses due to the tsetse belt. Saving up to buy horses wasn't an option because there were none.

Thanks for the specific info regarding bison, Dave.

 

[rewster]

Nope because the populations which lived the longest around zebra-bearing areas didn't have access to horses due to the tsetse belt. Saving up to buy horses wasn't an option because there were none.

Thanks for the specific info regarding bison, Dave.

Ok... good to know. (I lent my copy of Guns Germs and Steel to my Dad...)
I was pretty sure bison being domesticable had been argued to death and most people (experts included) believe they are not. Didn't remember what the reasoning behind zebras was.

The "potato" line of thought has me intrigued.... if they did make it to N. America, how rapidly do they spread? Does this lead to a population boom, and if so, do we start to see cities crop up in places like mississippi (the culture area) and the northeast? Would there be more "high culture" areas like the so called "high culture" area of mesoamerica?

 

[Martinus Paduei]

no, bison are not domesticable... they have not been domesticated in modern times... they have been fenced in (barely.. they are notorious fence busters). They are not truly domesticated like cattle, and are dangerous... and would be even more so to any native american who tried to domesticate them without benefit of rifles. Basically, if bison were domesticable, they would have already done so by the native americans. North American caribou are essentially the same genetic species as Eurasian reindeer, but they have very different social habits and are not domesticable either. Llamas are all there is for large domestic animals in the Americas...

At worst, bison and caribou domesticability are open questions, because no one has set up a sustained program over a couple of centuries. As for caribou especially, as you say, they are essentially genetically identical with European reindeer, and raising them from newborn or nearly so among humans for many dozens of (caribou) generations would tend to alter their social habits. I think it quite reasonable that the caribou emerges as an alternative to the llama in the colder areas of North America (south to the American Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northern Great Plains, Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest).