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There are quite a few threads dealing with circumstances of American Independence.
Only a few of them involve the failure of the Revolution.

But what I've never seen here: A scaled-down revolution, with less than 13 colonies taking part in the unrest. This seems quite realistic to me, given the effort the leaders of the upheaval invested to close their lines.

Now assume they would not have been as successful.
Which groups of colonies would be nevertheless able to achieve independence?
Bonus points if the rebellious area is not contiguous.

Additional problem: If the colonies in unrest fall apart once they are free, what would be the loosest connection upholding their independence?
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