American Independence Scaled Down

There are quite a few threads dealing with circumstances of American Independence.
Only a few of them involve the failure of the Revolution.

But what I've never seen here: A scaled-down revolution, with less than 13 colonies taking part in the unrest. This seems quite realistic to me, given the effort the leaders of the upheaval invested to close their lines.

Now assume they would not have been as successful.
Which groups of colonies would be nevertheless able to achieve independence?
Bonus points if the rebellious area is not contiguous.

Additional problem: If the colonies in unrest fall apart once they are free, what would be the loosest connection upholding their independence?
 
The Southern colonies remained more or less Loyalist until the British started freeing and arming the black slaves.
 
The Southern colonies remained more or less Loyalist until the British started freeing and arming the black slaves.

Perfect - this already provides the PoD.
Would the affiliation of the colonies to the "South" be the same as a century later?
And of course: What would be the chances of the revolution to succeed without slave liberation?
 
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