American-German War of 1889

Ok as I'm doing R&D for some TLs some times the information I find causes me to think of new TLs or ideas for TLs. This is one of those times.

In 1889 there was a risk of a colony war breaking out between the United States and Germany over the Samoa Island Group. They both had warships in Apia Harbor and tense was running high in 1889 in the Samoan Crisis. However the 1889 Apia Cyclone wrecked both fleets leading to the Tripartite Convention of 1899 that ended it with Samoa being divided by the Germans and Americans with the British picking up the Solomon Island Group save for Bougainville.

However what if before the 1889 Cyclone hit the two sides start firing at each other. Or they get out of the harbor before the storm hits and one it passes the stand off returns leading to shots being fired later. Who wins and where is this war fought?
 
The key question here is the risk justifiable for either Country.

I could see a skirmish breaking out for sure, but I suspect that it would be localised to that area and would precipitate a negotiated outcome for both parties.
 
As mentioned by the poster above, the question is about whether the islands are worth it. Since the US already mostly controled Hawai'i and thus had a foothold in the pacific, they might not want to go all out as germany

One possibility to prevent all out war between the 2 could be a proxy war by supporting local chief against each other.
 
Neither the USA nor Germany saw Samoa as worth a war. If a skirmish occurred, it would have been tamped down fairly quickly. In 1889 the USA had a good deal of influence in Hawaii, but it was still an independent kingdom. Basically Germany and the USA had no real arguments, and frankly what would a war between them look like? Neither one is going to invade the other, the US Navy as limited as it was in 1889 was larger than the German Navy and supported by a much larger merchant marine. FWIW there was no Kiel Canal yet, so German warships' access to the open oceans was more limited.

So...a skirmish, some tragic deaths, and a negotiated settlement. twenty-five years later there may be some residual bad memories to make the US more pro-Entente in 1914 than it was, but otherwise m=not so much of a much.
 

Driftless

Donor
I could see local commanders get their ire cranked up and a skirmish ensues. But as noted above, neither side had the means for really getting too serious across the distance - at that point in time. Neither side had any real animosity at that point either. One possible outcome, diplomats from both sides use the episode to open discussions about sphere's of influence in the Pacific?
 
As others have said, there will be at most a local skirmish, followed by a negotiated peace.

The most important result may be a lingering distrust of Germany in the US, leading to the conviction in Germany that in a widespread war, the US would probably join Germany's eniemies. Which might lead to a different naval policy under Wilhelm II.
 
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