American-European economic balance without WWs?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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It would be interesting to see what immigration does ITTL as the US would get a large amount of Russia, German, and A-H emigrants. Russia might well end up suffering brain drain like IOTL and have to deal with a lot of political issues around Poland and various ethnic minorities, plus their horrific poverty situation.

Very few immigrants from Russia to the U.S. or elsewhere during the prewar period were ethnic Russians, as shown below. The U.S. congressional reports on immigration actually show that the majority of immigrants were Jewish, followed by Poles, Lithuanians, Finns, and ethnic Germans. The majority of Jews were permanent immigrants with only 5% ever returning to Russia. The same was true of the ethnic Germans and to a lesser extent Scandinavians. The ethnic Russians were amongst the most skilled and wealthiest immigrants, so it is possible that most were skilled artisans, chefs, etc.

Immigrants from the Russian Empire and Finland to the USA 1899-1910
Jewish 765,531
Polish 471,378
Lithuanian 168,740
Finnish 148,183
German 100,817
Russian (Includes Belarussians & Ukrainians) 77,321
Scandinavian 13,624
Others 3,291

Female Immigrants as a Proportion of the Above
Jews 43.4%
Germans 40.6%
Finns 33.9%
Poles 30.5%
Lithuanians 29.4%
Russians 15%

For Austria-Hungary the number of Germans and Czechs immigrating to the U.S. peaked in the 1880s and had been declining. The number of Slavs however was increasing. The Ukrainians from Ruthenia were ranked amongst the poorest immigrants and least skilled coming to the U.S.

Immigration from Austria-Hungary
Germans 458,293
Poles 432,809
Slovak 374,624
Magyars 333,429
Croats & Slovenes 331,154
Jews 180,802
Ruthenes (Ukrainians) 144,710
Czechs 98,469
Romanians 76,755
Serbs 39,099
Dalmatians, Bosnians & Herzegovinians 31,047
Italians 19,410
Others 4,909

From Germany the emigration in 1913 was reduced to 25,000. This was mostly due to increasing economic opportunities as the country now attracted immigrants from neighbouring countries, with over 1 million foreign born residents by 1913.
 

Deleted member 1487

While that is interesting it doesn't really answer the question of what the long term impact of having a huge ongoing source of European immigrants with skills and education to the US would mean; the WWs cut off that source of immigrants so that by the 1960s the US was turning to 'non-traditional' immigration sources in Asia and Latin America. With the trend ongoing and increasing throughout the 1914-1950s period as there isn't the destruction of population or reduction of birth rates in Europe having a steady supply of middle class and up immigrants would be a large boon to the US, while probably keeping the best minds of Latin America, Asia, and Africa at home after the 1950s and help develop those countries. But with Europe being far more competitive scientifically and economically perhaps immigration from Europe might start drying up and Europe is a attraction to immigrants from around the world.

ITTL Germany will be THE place for nuclear physics and the sciences in general, while having a much slower decline in birthrates and lack the destruction of its high culture and scientific community. Plus Europe will increasingly integrate economically and socially; I wonder if something like the EEC will end up happening by the 1930s out of need for further growth.
 
Before the 1924 quotas and particularly before the war, immigraiton between Europe and the Americas was fairly easy for most ethnic groups. What made this period interesting was that roughly a third of immigrants to the U.S. before World War I were temporary migrants. Italians, Slavic and Greek men emigrated in huge numbers and would often work seasonaly and return home, sometimes making various voyages. This happened to Argentina, Brazil, Canda, Cuba, Uruguay during this period as well.

The effect of this was that during economic downturns, more immigrants left countries than came in. This happened in 1908 in the U.S. where over 250,000Italians left the country, it happened in Argentina too in 1891 and Brazil in 1893. When the U.S. and other countries shut the door, many immigrants brought over their families, fearful that they could no longer come back. The same would later happen to the Mexican braceros later in the century.
 
Between 1907-1913 the total spending on air forces was as follows:

Germany $28 million
France $22 million
Russia $12 million
Italy $8 million
Austria-Hungary $5 million
UK $3 million

In 1914 the allocation for air fleets before the war was as follows:
France $7.4 million
Germany $5 million
Russia $5 million
UK $3 million
Italy $2.1 million
Japan $1 million
Mexico $400,000
USA $125,000

However, this money was spent in different ways. France and Russia tended to spend more on airplanes, with Russia not having a single air ship. Germany and Austria-Hungary however were more focussed on dirigibles.

I imainge that Britain, Japan and the U.S. saw little reason to spend on planes or airships since they did not share land borders with hostile powers and range was so limited at the time.

Would be an interesting POD if Britain and spent a lot more on air force
 
Would be an interesting POD if Britain and spent a lot more on air force

The first Cross Channel flight was not until Louis Blériot in 1909 and in the pre-1914 airplanes had such a limited range, they probably felt that they were not needed. Keep in mind at this time their princiapl use was for reconnaissance. For countries with hostile powers on their immediate borders, investing in aerial reconnaisance made sense.
 
I don't imagine Russia being a leader longterm, but at least short-term with the heavier Sikorsky. Keep in mind France was an early leader with automobiles, but was soon surpassed.
However, the argument is that they weren't spending much, which I suspect was due to the restructuring, and that in a few years with the restructuring over, they'd be able to afford to spend a lot more.
 
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