American Coup d'etat?

The thing is that the Business Plot was all smoke no fire. At most, it was all just some low-level grumblings of people who didn't really speak for the people they were representing.
 
In these days, I can see a coup happening. But not by the military. More like an action to remove corrupt members of Congress and the Supreme Court, and that more progressives come to power.
 
Zero probability event.

The U.S. military is not a wolf in sheep's clothing, it is the sheepdog. EVERY member of the military takes "The Oath". The really funny thing is that they mean it. Protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies" is real to them.

The military would have laughed in Nixon's face if he had told the Chiefs to invoke martial law.

I quite agree with most of this, which is why I said that there was at no point any actual threat of a coup. But surely you can imagine situations where the national political situation has deteriorated to the point where it becomes conceivable? It takes about a decade, but I think you could get there by '68.
 
All countries have checks balances and oaths to prevent coups. Yet they can, and have, happened. The U.S. Military has a strong tradition of civil control and overall loyalty to the goverment. That doesn't mean it isn't incorruptible. The possibilities may be lower, but they aren't zero.
 
A successful coup d'etat is unlikely, since one of the great strengths of the American system is that it's believed to work.

People have faith in it. As CalBear said, the Armed Forces believe that their oath of allegiance is a meaningful one. More than that, the general public believes in the system as well- even Nixon's supporters would have come out on the streets against him if he'd tried anything.


So I'd say that to see a successful coup you need previous events that damage people's faith in the structure of the USA.

A completely incompetent president who can't be removed through standard means, and has to go through a fairly dubious legal dodge- as in one of the greatest timelines on the boards.

Or an attempt at a Business plot that while a debacle leads to a few senior politicians shot by the rebels in the chaos, followed by heavy handed reprisals later.

A Federal intervention against strikers or civil rights marchers or extremist groups that turns pointlessly bloody.


The point is that you need to get things to the point where the men in uniform who've sworn to uphold the constitution lose faith in that document; where they can persuade themselves they can honor that oath more in the breach.

You've got to make it that the people who take the action can do so wholly convinced that it is patriotic, probably legal, necessary and above all the only option left.


And then after that things can begin to get really bad....
 
What about a coup or a grab during the civil war or during the war of 1812 could the military try to take over after the burning of washington
 
No! There are too many checks and balances in the USA government system for anything such as a coup to be possible. Only in the case of total brakedown of the system could it happen. Otherwise, someone will stop it.
Systemic checks do not stop military coups. The Roman Republic had more checks and balances than the US constitution, and faced a long litany of coups during its twilight years.

What stops military coups is civilian control of the military and a strong democratic tradition.
 
Zero probability event.

The U.S. military is not a wolf in sheep's clothing, it is the sheepdog. EVERY member of the military takes "The Oath". The really funny thing is that they mean it. Protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies" is real to them.

The military would have laughed in Nixon's face if he had told the Chiefs to invoke martial law.
"Protecting and defending the constitution against all enemies" is the perfect justificaiton for a coup d'etat. Which is why nearly all modern coups have used it as a pretext.

All it would take for the US military to become the perfect instrument of a military junta is for the rank and file to become reasonably convinced that the current government has run afoul of what they think the Constitution means.
 
1932 would seem the most likely year for a coup......MacArthur beating down the bonus army after ignoring orders from the President not to continue pursuing them.But the chances of another mac getting the top job is probably nil.It's just one of those things that take too many butterflies to ever happen.
 

Jasen777

Donor
A military coup could succeed, if no one knew it was a military coup. Not military rule, but a decapitation coup. Say the VP is seen as more friendly to the military. A false flag op to assassinate the president would be relatively easy (not having word leak would be much harder of course).
 
Wow. I don't even.
I was just saying that people who join the army are usually not averse to starting conflicts. This guy did 2 tours in Iraq and just finished his third in Afghanistan. All he ever said is that he couldn't wait to go back. As to the politics, he is a professional soldier, if there is no war, he's out of work.

Zero probability event.

The U.S. military is not a wolf in sheep's clothing, it is the sheepdog. EVERY member of the military takes "The Oath". The really funny thing is that they mean it. Protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies" is real to them.

The military would have laughed in Nixon's face if he had told the Chiefs to invoke martial law.

Agreed. Soldiers are patriots, not fascists.
 
There are GOOD reasons we've never had a coup that worked. Our army's been trained since Washington that a coup's not in the army's interest - the truth works well. It's certainly NOT because no generals have ever had that idea (MacArthur and McClellan, looking at you).

And we'd hold a popular countercoup anyway in that unlikely circumstance.


So, nuclaar war or a major disaster is what we've got. But then you get to write a disaster TL.
 
"Protecting and defending the constitution against all enemies" is the perfect justificaiton for a coup d'etat. Which is why nearly all modern coups have used it as a pretext.

All it would take for the US military to become the perfect instrument of a military junta is for the rank and file to become reasonably convinced that the current government has run afoul of what they think the Constitution means.

Exactly.

The Spanish army rebellion of 1936 was motivated in substantial part by the belief that the Republican government was dominated by Communist and Socialist radicals who intended to establish a Soviet-style dictatorship.

This was not an unreasonable fear: in 1934, the Socialists made an armed rebellion against the Republic; the Socialist Party leader was praised as "the Spanish Lenin"; Communist orators asserted that the Revolution was imminent; the newly elected Left government created a new national police force staffed entirely by Reds (the Assault Guard); and the co-leader of the right wing in the parliament had been kidnapped and murdered by Socialist gunmen and Assault Guards.

For a comparable scenario in the U.S.: there would have to be a Presidential administration closely associated with violent radical groups, which appears to be moving toward an anti-constitutional "self-coup" (when a lawful head of government seizes dictatorial power).

The difficulty is that the President is normally elected by a majority, and it is unlikely the military would oppose the popular will. In 1936 Spain, the government was a parliamentary coalition of the "middle class left" with the Reds; the premier and then president was a "middle class left" figure who apparently could not see and never acknowledged the threat from the Red Left.

In the U.S.... suppose we have a President who is elected by a plurality, and who is the soft-headed tool of radicals in his party. They can gin up narrow majorities in Congress by dubious means. They use these majorities to stack the courts and regulatory commissions with a huge number of new appointees (by adding seats), and then start removing opposition officeholders by bogus prosecutions. They create a new National Police, with special "emergency" powers and a large quasi-military wing. When the opposition wins Congress in the mid-term elections, the President's group essentially ignore Congress and rule by executive decree, while organizing their followers for a possible seizure of power.

Under those conditions, one might see a military coup in the U.S.
 
Just a comment on the original proposition. I don't see a military coup for any purpose than to head off an unconstituional power grab. Even the Nixon possiblity pointed out was headed off by his civilian appointee to SecDef (a Repubican). If the Chairman or other high ranking officer were approached he would first defer to Sec Def or Congressional leadership. The US military of our day is much more political yes, but they also see themselves as having a calling much like the ministry. Their God the Constitution.
 
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