American Civil War possibility

How would the war of changed if the following were to have happened:
1) There was French intervention/pressure on Mexico
2) The Mexican government was at least somewhat stable
3) They form an alliance with the CSA early in the war

Let's assume the Mexicans would want the Mexican cession to at least be partially erased, and perhaps some gains in Texas, maybe not. So how would this influence the war? How plausible is this alliance in the first place, is it completely ASB? Would this help encourage Britain/France to aid the CSA? Thank you.
 
How would the war of changed if the following were to have happened:
1) There was French intervention/pressure on Mexico
2) The Mexican government was at least somewhat stable
3) They form an alliance with the CSA early in the war

Let's assume the Mexicans would want the Mexican cession to at least be partially erased, and perhaps some gains in Texas, maybe not. So how would this influence the war? How plausible is this alliance in the first place, is it completely ASB? Would this help encourage Britain/France to aid the CSA? Thank you.

If the CSA were in an alliance with Mexico, I'd say the Confederates would be the ones who would gain southwestern territory. After all, they created the Arizona Territory.
 
I think European aid to the CSA is still unlikely. Maybe they're more willing to sell the Confederates more weapons than they do in OTL but in all honesty nobody really liked the CSA and the Europeans, especially Britain, hated that they were slave owners. Europe likes and as a trade partner needs the USA a hell of a lot more than it does the CSA. Providing aid to the Confederates does little except destroy their relationship with the US.

If a more stable Mexico joins the CSA for whatever reason we're likely to see more fighting in the southwest and possibly California. But I'm wondering how much the Confederates will trust a mobilized Mexico that's going to have recovering territory as a major goal. I can see Texas getting really nervous about this situation. The downside for Mexico is that if the CSA doesn't win the war they're likely to become US subjects within short order. There's no way the US is going to tolerate a stable, hostile Mexico that they've been at war with twice in a generation.
 
Nobody wants to go down in history as "the guy what made an alliance with slaveowners".

Reason of state is always above issues of ethics and morals - and had Britain and/or France been convinced that the CSA had a chance of winning the American Civil War, they would have supported them more openly.
 
A CSA alliance with Mexico with the purpose of surrendering American land to Mexico will kill a lot of enthusiasm for the new regime, even if that land only comes from the Union (which any adjustments in Texas won't be, and since the Confederates desire southern AZ/NM themselves, that also creates problems).

Creating such an alliance would be a major blunder of the CSA. It would alienate a lot of people. Any pro-Confederate sympathy in the Southwest would likely collapse. Unionists in Texas, likely lead by an enraged Sam Houston, would stage a comeback. Hordes of Texans in the CSA army are likely to desert and return home, while Texas debates leaving the CSA. Many ordinary soldiers in other states might desert or fail to enlist over an agreement they may view as treasonous. Even some CSA officers who served in the Mexican War might lose their enthusiasm. Even slaveholders who were hoping independence would allow for the expansion of slavery would be aghast.

In the meantime, Lincoln wins a huge propaganda victory. The secessionists aren't just trying to destroy the Union, but are helping a foreign power occupy American territory. Support for the Copperheads plummet. Enlistments go up. The Western Theatre of the war gets priority so that Union troops can better defend the border with Mexico and team up with Unionist Texans. Some of the Upper South may even defect back to the Union in protest.

This is such a monumentally bad idea, I don't see why Jefferson Davis would ever agree to it.
 
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