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So, I was making a map/timeline in which the Franco-American War in 1798 becomes a bigger deal. One of the side effects ("butterflies," I guess) of this is that the slavery matter is sorted out by a Missouri Compromise-esque law and procedures for admitting states that defuses the slavery situation for years longer than in OTL. Furthermore, a different party system means that in 1860, there's no specific party with a "Free Soil" agenda to scare the South. Thus, the South stays with the Union longer than in OTL.

Still, the issue of slavery comes to a head towards the end of the 19th century, as there's no real compromise on the issue of fugitive slaves, the abolitionist movement is still around, and there's growing "antislavery" (more anti-planter and class resentment, I guess) sentiment in parts of the Upper South as well.

So the South secedes. For convenience, we'll say that the same states secede as in OTL, and as in OTL, strong Unionist feelings remain in large parts of Virginia and Tennessee. We'll also assume that the states followed the same development paths as they did in OTL.

How will the new civil war look like with all the new military technologies that have been invented since the 1860s? Do you think the South can win?
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