American Civil War: effects on Mexico?

If the south had won the civil war what impact would this have in Mexico?
( I tried to answer this question myself but it's hard to keep track of everything.)
 
The Second Mexican Empire would have a chance to survive but it still faces the same problems it did in OTL. The Rebels are not going to just give up something has got to happen.
 
??Which South??

A 1861 Bull Run ~ Washington Victory South, means No European involvement in Mexico.
A 1865 Copperhead Victory South, almost insures Maximilian's survival.

The period 1861~1868 was as much a period of Upheavals and uncertainty in Mexico as in the US
 
??Which South??

A 1861 Bull Run ~ Washington Victory South, means No European involvement in Mexico.
A 1865 Copperhead Victory South, almost insures Maximilian's survival.

The period 1861~1868 was as much a period of Upheavals and uncertainty in Mexico as in the US
You know the Confederacy, CSA, or whatever.
But what about people like Juarez?
 
A lot of the southern leadership had wanted more of Mexico and/or the Caribbean well before the Civil War.

If it's an early victory by the CSA, then they'll probably try to annex parts of northern Mexico, perhaps more successfully than in OTL. http://members.tripod.com/~azrebel/page11.html If it's a late victory, then the French are too well established and the CSA too drained to try anything.

Of course, in a country founded on the idea that any state can leave at any time for any reason, the very issue of getting involved in Mexico could cuase the CSA to fracture.

The USA will not be happy with either French or the CSA getting involved in Mexico. I'd expect covert funding of Juarez and perhaps some Unionist volunteers aiding the Mexicans. And there might be a naval war between the Union and France in the Caribbean.

Alteratively, the Union might attempt to sieze parts of Mexico to keep them out of Confederate hands.
 
You know the Confederacy, CSA, or whatever.
But what about people like Juarez?
Yes . that is what I am Asking You, ?Which CSA won.?
A CSA that won in 1861 and controls Arizona, Means no Juarez, Safe in Arizona, to direct the Rebellion.

A CSA that won a Peace of Exhaustion in late 1865, after the Copperheads gave up,
It can barely rebuild itself, and won't be involved in any foreign anything for decades.

So whe need the date and peace terms to figure out, what kind of CSA whe are talking about.

Mexico is also in total Flux during this period. So Which CSA whe are dealing with will have a lot to do with the Interaction.
 
Yes . that is what I am Asking You, ?Which CSA won.?
A CSA that won in 1861 and controls Arizona, Means no Juarez, Safe in Arizona, to direct the Rebellion.

A CSA that won a Peace of Exhaustion in late 1865, after the Copperheads gave up,
It can barely rebuild itself, and won't be involved in any foreign anything for decades.

So whe need the date and peace terms to figure out, what kind of CSA whe are talking about.

Mexico is also in total Flux during this period. So Which CSA whe are dealing with will have a lot to do with the Interaction.
I see, that kind of CSA. A CSA were Lee won the battle of Gettysburg and gets Britain to recognize them sort of Confederacy?
 
Lord Palmerton requests a meeting with Lincoln,
He expresses sorrow at the news, but has to tell Lincoln that Queen Victoria's Government has extended Diplomatic Recognition to the CSA.
British Warships will be escorting any British Merchantships traveling to Southern Ports.
One day later, the French Ambassador delivers the same News for Paris.

2 days later President Davis, formally Welcomes the Ambassador from Maximilian's Mexico.

Now able to buy Supplies & Food, from Europe, the CSA is in much better shape.
in summer of 1864, a CS Army under General Longstreet, decimates a Union army in northern Georgia commanded by General Sherman.
That fall Lincoln loses his bid for reelection.
As both sides head for Winter Quarters, a mood of not wanting to be the last man Shot grips the Union Army.
Over the Winter Desertions, - always a problem - escalate.

When McClellan take office in march 1865, he inherits a demoralized Military that faces a CSA that is on the Defensive in the East, and forcing withdraws in the West, when ever the two sides meet.
Attempts to Draft new Soldiers fail when State & Local Draft Boards refuse to enforce draft notices.

In early July publicly pointing to the series of defeats, He asks Davis to send a negotiating team to Washington to discuss ending the War.

Two weeks later in Nogeles, Arizona Territory, President Juarez receives the news that His Pinkerton Men, were being withdrawn

In Septembre in a ceremony in Arlington Virginia, McClellan & Davis sign the treaty, as the last Union Soldiers march out of Virginia.
The treaty recognizes the current border, and gives the CSA the southern Half of the Arizona Territory.

In northern Mexico Juarez again slips away from the French Troops a informer had lead to his hiding Place.
This is the third escape in the three months, since He was forced to leave Arizona.


In January 1866, Maximilian sells Baja to the CSA, in return for several million in Gold, and the CSA assuming Mexico's -British and Spanish Debts.

At the same time the City of New Orleans and the surrounding Parishes that had been under Union Occupation Ban slavery, as attempts to enforce the re-enslavement of the Black population fails.

In 1867 following the execution of Juarez, Mexico and the CSA sign a Treaty of Friendship promising to respect each others borders.


In 1868 McClellan and the Democrats lose the Election. The incoming Republicans lose no time in repealing the Fugitive Slave Acts.
 
Another consideration is the Texas-Mexico border. French Mexico may demand parts of Texas back in return for recognizing the CSA. Of course, if they get some back, they'll probably want the rest later. Or the CSA's first war after independance may be with an expansionist Mexico.
 
I was just wondering, what would be the purpose of the CSA with already an inferior econonomic postion purchase Baja California which is non-contigious with the rest of the Confederate States.
 
Mexico agnostices

France would continue to support Maximillian, the Union weakened by the loss of the Confederacy would not get involved. There might be a bit of land grabbing by the CSA. Texas succeeded from Mexico over the rights of white settlers to own slaves. Jubal Early went south to fight for Maximillian after the war. The civil war in Mexico would last until 1870 then France would be bogged down in the Franco Prusiian War and pull out. The Juaristas would then win after a lot more carnage. Anyway you look at it it would be bad news for Mexico
 
Texas succeeded from Mexico over the rights of white settlers to own slaves.
eh... not really. The Texan revolt had a lot more to do with their tax and customs status (it had been set very low when the TX charter was originally set up, in order to lure American settlers there)... Santa Anna was dead set on raising taxes and custom duties, and in general, imposing more 'order' on the American settlers. Actually, the Texan rebellion had a lot in common with the ARW: the mother country had for decades ignored the American colonists, and they got used to doing things their own way, and prospered without anyone interfering with them.. then, when the mother country decided to crack down and get serious about taxing, the colonists rebelled successfully..
Slavery wasn't much of an issue in the Texan war. Although Mexico technically outlawed slavery, it allowed such things as 99 year bond contracts, which is how most of the slaves in Texas were brought in. Plus, there was out and out slavery amongst the wealthy in Mexico, who had Indian children stolen and raised to be 'exotic' house servants....
 
I was just wondering, what would be the purpose of the CSA with already an inferior economic position purchase Baja California which is non-contiguous with the rest of the Confederate States.
If this is about my mini TL. I said that the CS got south Arizona.
 
Slavery wasn't much of an issue in the Texan war
The belief that Santa Anna was intending to "compel you into obedience to the new form of Government...to give up your arms...to liberate your slaves" was an undeniable factor in the ‘Texas Revolution’. Certainly it was perceived to be such by all contemporary observers and participants

This is of course all bundled up (like the ACW) in the issue of state/local rule vs centralised government and a host of economic and social factors. At the end of the day however a desire to maintain their slaves, or at least the right to decide for themselves to maintain slavery, played a significant role in the revolt

Although Mexico technically outlawed slavery, it allowed such things as 99 year bond contracts, which is how most of the slaves in Texas were brought in. Plus, there was out and out slavery amongst the wealthy in Mexico, who had Indian children stolen and raised to be 'exotic' house servants....
The anti-slavery legislation introduced by President Guerrero in 1829 was intended to specifically target at the Texan settlers as they were the only group within the Mexican Republic to practice slavery on an economic scale. The institution of slavery simply did not exist elsewhere in Mexico on anywhere near the same scale
 
In 1867 following the execution of Juarez, Mexico and the CSA sign a Treaty of Friendship promising to respect each others borders.
You forgot Yucatan, the Mayans were fighting there for a long time, and they might have used the unrest to recieve Juarez and proclaim the Second Republic of the Yucatan
 
eh... not really. The Texan revolt had a lot more to do with their tax and customs status (it had been set very low when the TX charter was originally set up, in order to lure American settlers there)... Santa Anna was dead set on raising taxes and custom duties, and in general, imposing more 'order' on the American settlers. Actually, the Texan rebellion had a lot in common with the ARW: the mother country had for decades ignored the American colonists, and they got used to doing things their own way, and prospered without anyone interfering with them.. then, when the mother country decided to crack down and get serious about taxing, the colonists rebelled successfully..
Slavery wasn't much of an issue in the Texan war. Although Mexico technically outlawed slavery, it allowed such things as 99 year bond contracts, which is how most of the slaves in Texas were brought in. Plus, there was out and out slavery amongst the wealthy in Mexico, who had Indian children stolen and raised to be 'exotic' house servants....
And Texas was imposing slavery where it was illegal, one of several signs the Texans were intent on not actually being good Mexican citizens. Those damned illegal immigrants, disobeying the laws of the countries they move into. :mad::p
 
You forgot Yucatan, the Mayans were fighting there for a long time, and they might have used the unrest to recieve Juarez and proclaim the Second Republic of the Yucatan
Not sure why they'd call it that when they were personally responsible for destroying the first Republic of Yucatan.
How does the South win?
I know this is pretty much insanely ASB, but how 'bout they settle their differences at the Hampton Roads Peace Conference? Apparently the one topic neither side would budge on was the independence of the CSA, but one of the things proposed at the meeting was a joint attack on Maximilian's Empire of Mexico in support of Juarez, because as we all know there's no bonding experience as powerful as a good ol' fashioned war with your pals. Even if it is ASB, Hampton Roads deals with Confederate independence and the effect on Mexico all at once, yay! :D
 
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