The csa will have to attempt to export to the world, which they did not, (...)
Perhaps I misunderstand you here, but... are you claiming the Southern states weren't historically engaged in export? Because they were. The Southern states had rapidly evolved into the free trade advocates, while the North wanted more protectionist policies. That, in fact, had been the background for initial north versus south divisions, before slavery even became a real point of contention.
(...) and theUSA can put whatever tariffs it likes on cotton making them uncompetitive.in fact it can require all cotton exports to be recertified in Boston and remittances for payment to be cleared to the cotton bank of the USA , Hartford Ct if it wants.
But for the time being, the CSA is not under US control, and considers itself an independent nation unbound by tarriffs. To make a very accurate comparison: the policies of Lincoln mean as much to the South upon its secession as the policies of king George did the USA on July 5th, 1776. What the North cares to require or demand means nothing to them.
As it is neither the U.K. Or France went to war for slavery because of a shortage of cotton before a disputed election becomes explicitly a war against slavery.
It wouldn't be a war for slavery. Very clearly, Britain and France are happy to stay on the sidelines and watch it play out. The point being made at this juncture is that if the South just refuses to take military action while happily asserting its independence, Lincoln will be in a spot of trouble. He can't raise an army. He'll have to rely on his other option, namely the whole thing with the tarriffs. It's very clear that this was indeed his intention. As
@David T pointed out in the post quoted below...
For those who doubt that Lincoln was seriously considering collecting the revenues offshore (...)
...yet observe that no-one here has denied that this intent was very real. It is only being pointed out that actually doing it will cause the Union a lot of trouble. As long as the South stays cool, and protests vehemently but
does not engage, while calling for international arbitration... this whole policy makes the North look bad and South look good. The revenues will be negligible, because there is no way Lincoln is stupid enough to attack foreign ships (at least if they belong to serious powers such as Britain or France). Britain and France are still neutral, but they will trade with the CSA. They were quite willing to in OTL. They accepted the blockade because open war had erupted, but this is a different scenario. At this point, there are two conflicting claims regarding the status of the CSA. Battle has not yet erupted. Legally, as far as foreign powers are concerned, the CSA is a political entity, although not a country as yet. It's in limbo, so to speak. Unlike in OTL, there is no war yet. Negotiation, possibly with arbitration, is still in the cards. For foreign powers to accept the Union navy's power to tax their vessels when trading with Southern ports would mean that they accept that the Union is right. It means choosing a side.
Trading with the CSA, contrarily, implies no such thing. You can trade with anyone. To choose their side, you'd have to recognise them as a country. Foreign powers are, as yet, doing no such thing. This is why Britain, France and all the rest of the world will most certainly refuse to accept mr. Lincoln's ambitious plans of boarding their vessels. If he tries, he is at war. And he knows it. OTL's Trent Affair proves that he might 'test the waters', but will back down when war threatens. Which it will. This in turn means that he can only board and tax Confederate vessels. The Confederates will underatand that, no doubt. They will no doubt do their utmost to make deals with foreign merchants, so those will make their foreign vessels available for the purposes of trade between the Confederacy and the world at large. In particular, they'll want British ships. Which has the side effect of increasing Britain's economic incentives to let the CSA exist.
Those incentives are already there, of course. Not to the point of fighting a war over it, but as mentioned, the South was in favour of free trade. As was Britain. In OTL, Britain chose to respect the blockade, which in the context of open hostilities was a perfectly normal measure. But before the blockade, British merchants were all too happy to exploit the secession crisis to engage in lucrative business, and during he blockade, most (in fact nearly all) blockade runners were British. In OTL as well, Britain soon looked for other sources of cotton, and found them-- but this was not at once profitable. Just better than actively meddling in a war in America. It would have been far more ideal for Britain to engage in free trade with the South, and the ATL scenario I'm outlining here allows for that. At least until north and South open mutual hostilities, at which point a blockade will be instituted, and thing will go as in OTL, albeit starting later.
Yet... when, if ever, will those hostilities commence? I fully agree that a tranquil Southern reaction to all these goings-on is unlikely. Presumably, the South will start shooting over their ships being boarded by the US navy, and then Lincoln has his war. Again, things go as in OTL, but with some delay.
And yet, and yet... this thread is about a negotiated resolution. Let's assume, then, that the Southern leadership is as sane as it can be, and keeps calm. North and South are now raising tarriffs against one another, but trade between the South and the outside world is being conducted by foreign merchant vessels, and the North can only watch and gnash its teeth. As that book quote by
@David T illustrates, the sudden absence of Southern tarriff revenue was a big blow to the North. This whole affair is economically damaging both sides, but the South delivers raw materials and imports manufactures. It can do that from damn near anywhere. It can export its materials to urope and import European manufactures. Its free trade policy aligns well with British policy. After the whole shock wears off (and before eventual political considerations re: slavery will turn Britain well and truly against the CSA), the South will not be much worse off.
The North, on the other hand, did in fact rely quite a bit on those Southern raw materials. Triangular trade never truly died, and Northern industry - while proclaiming moral superiority - fed itself with the raw produce of the slave plantations. Often have I pointed out this irony: much as Lost Causers like to claim that it wasn't about slavery for the South... it was. But just as much, many defenders of the Union like to claim that the war was fought by the North to free the slaves... but it wasn't. The South fought chiefly for slavery, and the North fought chiefly for its economic interests.
So where does that leave Lincoln, when his tarriff plan proves more or less useless? When the world trades with the South just as it trades with other slave-holding nations? When he can do nothing about it without provoking an international war against enemies he cannot defeat? When every passing day strengthens the foreign interest in letting the CSA continue to exist? When the CSA is looking innocent, calling for arbitration and offering to compensate the Federal government for material losses? When the USA looks like an aggressive bully, choosing violence when the nogotiating table is available? When sure, sooner rather than later, some foreign power is going to recognise the CSA, thus becoming to the South what France was to the fledgling USA? When any attempt to raise an army and march it though the Upper South will make the Upper South secede and join the CSA? (And probably not just the OTL seceding states, but trying-to-be-neutral Kentucky, too.)
What other option does Lincoln have, except to start negotiating a deal? Or more accurately: what option does he have that's less bad?
(I say again: this scenario is far from the likeliest, because the South is way more likely to lose its cool. But if it does keep cool, I really think matter won't be looking good for Lincoln... and a negotiated resolution looks ever more likely.)
