American Chihuahua - Juarez defeated

Benito Juarez during the French invasion of Mexico fled to the Mexican north - first El Paso and then Chihuahua - and had his base of operations/capital-in-exile set up there.

What if the United States had gotten Chihuahua, Sonora, and Baja either in the Mexican-American War or the Gadsden purchase and Juarez was unable to flee north, thus being defeated by the French and Imperials?
 

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Benito Juarez during the French invasion of Mexico fled to the Mexican north - first El Paso and then Chihuahua - and had his base of operations/capital-in-exile set up there.

What if the United States had gotten Chihuahua, Sonora, and Baja either in the Mexican-American War or the Gadsden purchase and Juarez was unable to flee north, thus being defeated by the French and Imperials?

Trick question; given how loosely controlled the Southwest was in this period, the fact Hispanics would still outnumber Anglo settlers (What sane person is going to want to settle Baja when there's still so much free, fertile land in Oregon and California?), and sympathy in Washington towards the Liberal cause in Mexico, what's stopping Juarez and his partisans from still fleeing north and squatting/ setting up a government in exile in American territory?
 

raharris1973

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Trick question; given how loosely controlled the Southwest was in this period, the fact Hispanics would still outnumber Anglo settlers (What sane person is going to want to settle Baja when there's still so much free, fertile land in Oregon and California?), and sympathy in Washington towards the Liberal cause in Mexico, what's stopping Juarez and his partisans from still fleeing north and squatting/ setting up a government in exile in American territory?

very little
 
Trick question; given how loosely controlled the Southwest was in this period, the fact Hispanics would still outnumber Anglo settlers (What sane person is going to want to settle Baja when there's still so much free, fertile land in Oregon and California?), and sympathy in Washington towards the Liberal cause in Mexico, what's stopping Juarez and his partisans from still fleeing north and squatting/ setting up a government in exile in American territory?

Does the Union control this territory in 1863 or the Confederacy? Or is it a contested warzone? That would factor into whether Juarez setting up camp is plausible or not.
 
Trick question; given how loosely controlled the Southwest was in this period, the fact Hispanics would still outnumber Anglo settlers (What sane person is going to want to settle Baja when there's still so much free, fertile land in Oregon and California?), and sympathy in Washington towards the Liberal cause in Mexico, what's stopping Juarez and his partisans from still fleeing north and squatting/ setting up a government in exile in American territory?

That was my thought too. Would the US have even wanted to stop him from fleeing into now US territory? Pretty much the only thing that the USA and CSA agreed on was that they really didn't want a French monarch in Mexico. Some people at the Hampton Roads Conference even argued for making peace for the purpose of attacking Emperor Maximilian. If it looks like the French might actually deal a crushing blow I think that US neutrality in the conflict will be extremely strained with a heavy possibility of sanctuary and material support for fleeing Mexican forces.
 
That was my thought too. Would the US have even wanted to stop him from fleeing into now US territory? Pretty much the only thing that the USA and CSA agreed on was that they really didn't want a French monarch in Mexico. Some people at the Hampton Roads Conference even argued for making peace for the purpose of attacking Emperor Maximilian. If it looks like the French might actually deal a crushing blow I think that US neutrality in the conflict will be extremely strained with a heavy possibility of sanctuary and material support for fleeing Mexican forces.

I imagine the following deal would be struck by one side or another (whomever controls the region he flees into, though I tilt towards the Federal government); Juarez, you can stay here for now. Just keep the Indians quiet, open up/keep open the routes to the Pacific for is, maybe mess with rebel Texans a bit by raiding and creating a specter on the Western front, helping tie down troops and supplies. Than, when the war is over, you and your men will get guns, volinteers, and supplies to help you liberate Mexico as well as our diplomatic support.
 
Wouldn't Juarez fleeing to US territory provoke the French entering the Civil War?

Alternatively, Senator Juarez is a fun idea...
 
If Union still wins the civil war, it not allows French win in Mexico or allow that enjoying about that very long.
 

Brunaburh

Gone Fishin'
The POD is either in 1848 or 1853 regarding a war that started in 1861. I'm not really sure there'd be many butterflies preventing the French invasion of Mexico.

The french invasion of Mexico was a response to a specific situation in which the Mexican government failed to repay loans to French creditors. If you disappear two massive populated states, you massively change the Mexican political situation. Some of the debts may never have been accrued, the French may have been paid back, or whatever. A President Juarez is very unlikely in this scenario, given how random his ascension was OTL. The Mexican civil war might not have happened, but if it did, it would certainly have happened differently. Mexico might have easily collapsed into more than one state, the Mexican government without Sonora and Chihuahua is much weaker. Conversely, as I've said in other places, a TL where the US occupies large areas of actual populated Mexican territory rather than Indian wilderness results in resistance. A rebellion could be supported by Mexico and an intelligent response by the British (diplomatically) and French (militarily) would be to support them.

This whole thread is a bit like a confederate victory timeline asking whether Greeley would have beaten Grant, you are all thinking way too small.
 
Benito Juarez during the French invasion of Mexico fled to the Mexican north - first El Paso and then Chihuahua - and had his base of operations/capital-in-exile set up there.

What if the United States had gotten Chihuahua, Sonora, and Baja either in the Mexican-American War or the Gadsden purchase and Juarez was unable to flee north, thus being defeated by the French and Imperials?
I think your upload is messed up.
 
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