American-British War

I think there's some misunderstanding of what a blockade is.
Its not necessarily a siege, there's little belief that every single ship will be stopped from getting anywhere near the US.
If however even just America's major ports were stopped from operating- this would not require many ships at all- then the negative effects on the American economy would be enourmous.
At an absolute minimum, well below what the UK is capable of, just imagine what would happen if no shipping could get into New York. Sure. The ships could just go to another port further down the coast. Vital supplies would reach the US....but just think of the massive economic damage that would do. It would be a major spanner in the economic works.

Economics are always forgotten in discussions such as these and they are always the critical factor. IOTL over the Trent Affair the US economy suffered some of its worst shakes up to that point in history at the mere threat of war with the UK.
Just imagine what would happen these days if the US decided it was going to stop trading with say, France. Sure, a lot of American trade lost, too much damage would be done to America to make it worth while (we live in far more interconnected times)...but the French would be screwed, so much of the global market is tied into America. The 19th century was similar only with Britain at the centre and the whole thing being a lot less interlinked, British losses being tolerable.
 
In conclusion I seriously doubt there are enough arms held in civilian hands to arm any scratch militias at either the start of a war or in response to an RN landing. However, I have not worked through the numbers and would be most interested from anyone that has.

again, it depends on the POD. If the war springs up overnight, then yes, you're right. If there is a period of rising tensions, then the USA will probably build up more (which could have a lot of other consequences too)...
 
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