American and French Revolutions

Suppose that the French openly declared war on Britain before Saratoga and... Saratoga was a smashing British victory. In three years, a lot of people are pushed away from the Patriot camp and Britain is gunning for payback on the French. There is some peace signed (I don't really care about the details).

Let's say the French financial situation by an amazing coincidence is similar to OTL (they didn't spend as much $ funding the rebels who bowed out early, but they had to replace more losses in a losing war). It's only thanks to Maria Antoinette being Queen that France had to face only Britain and not more foes.

So the money runs out and Louis XVI calls the estates-general so he doesn't default. Do we get a French Revolution or would the city commoners think "well, I guess commoners can't beat a divinely ordained monarch" (The declaration of Rights of Man was clearly a shout out to the DoI so there was intellectual transmission across the Atlantic). Or maybe the thought is "wow, our king is a total loser and he wants to raise taxes. Let's revolt just like OTL"?
 
Even without the extra debt of the American War of Inpendencd, the French were in a Financial Crisis stemming from its Seven Years' War debts. So presuming that financial reforms still fail, the Estates General is likely to be eventually called.

I suspect that the Estates General would still find gridlock and impasse between the 3 estates as one of the principal issues concerning France was that the First and Second Estates paid little to none of the taxes of France and were unlikely to agree to paying more. With a failing EG and likely comparable harvest failures (assuming a roughly similar timeline of events) the people's desperation and agitation could easily boil over into revolution.

You've suggested that the revolt was conceived in opposition to the King from the start which is not strictly true. The revolution was principally anti-aristocracy with the King's status held and treated as seperate. It only slowly became anti-monarchy as the King naturally sided with the nobility and tried to resist moves by the self-declared National Assembly to limit his power. Of course there were other factors eg. rumors of hoarding grain, the foreigness of Marie-Antoinette, the Flight to Varennes, etc. but structurally the King was not a target except by the most dug in Republicans.
 
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