Still working on this...
The United States pursues its self-interest instead of either confused isolationism or liberal internationalism. The distinction between isolationism vs interventionism is self-evidently flawed. A nation with decent leaders would pursue its own narrow interest in an intelligent and clear sighted manner. The main foreign policy objective of the United States in this scenario is to ensure the main part of humanity (Europe, Africa, Asia and lets throw in Oceania) is divided politically, but open economically to United States trade. The second goal is to ensure United States hegemony in the Western Hemisphere.
Do you think the following outcomes are realistic:
Lets assume the United States begins this policy by pursuing its own self-interest in the Great War 1914-1918. POD occurs with a new administration (i.e. not Wilson) taking power in March 1917, you can achieve this however you like (Not being an American I am not emotionally invested in the parties, ideologies or candidates). Basically the new cabinet weighs US self-interest rationally and decides the following:
- Intervention on the side of Germany & the Central Powers would be a disaster - for both trade and domestic cohesion. It would lead to a costly war in the Western Hemisphere.
- Germany is in the weaker position - Germans are unlikely to achieve their war aims, meaning even moderate American support or disengagement from the Allies is unlikely to be repaid in the ensuing peace.
- Intervention on the side of the Allies costly - this would be costly in blood and treasure. It would also alienate both the German and Irish populations at home and needlessly disrupt the political economy of the United States.
- US has a vested interest in the Allies winning - Disengagement from the Allied cause is unrealistic given British propaganda at home and the extension of unsecured loans to the Allied side. The bad blood already created with Germany by American insouciance and default support for the Allies is also a consideration.
- Support for the Pax Britannia - the United States had benefited greatly from the stability and trade of the British world order. The Untied States should free ride as long as possible on the Pax Britannia.
Based on the above calculations the administration decides to recoup the combined cost of US unsecured loans, industrial supplies and tacit support as follows:
In response to German violations of the Munroe doctrine (
Unrestricted Submarine Warfare in the Western Hemisphere / Encouraging Mexico to annex areas of the United States / Terrorist attacks and sabotage on American soil) the United States offers the following to the Allies :
- Disavowal of Imperialism & Disbandment of Expeditionary Capabilities - the U.S. will maintain the Marines to protect the coast and enforce vital interest. It will maintain strong State Militias modeled on Army Reserve forces. Hoever, the US but will disband expeditionary capabilities and disavow colonial ventures post-WWI. Basically, it will not intervene in the non-trade related affairs of foreign countries or threaten the victors dominance of Afro-Eurasia.
- Transfer of the Philippines - to Japan on the condition the Japanese deploy in significant numbers to the Western Front.
- Transfer of South Pacific possessions (Guam, American Samoa, other Pacific Islands etc) - also to Japan on condition of Japanese deployment to the Western Front.
- Independence of Puerto Rico - the U.S. will also turn over its share of the Virgin Islands and establish a U.S. led Pan-American force to control the Panama Canal Zone.
- Secure War Supplies - the US will abolish all taxes and export tariffs on vital war industries supplying the Western Front.
- Embargo Germany - Following from the last point the United States will forbid the sale of goods or services to the Central Powers.
- Western Atlantic "No Sail Zone" - the U.S. Navy will enforce control over the sea lanes on the western half of the North Atlantic and secure US ships (even when such ships are carrying war supplies or potential recruits etc).
- Mexican Retaliation - The U.S. will demand Mexican retaliation against Germany as demonstration of its broad and total rejection of the Zimmermann Telegram. This will take the form of transferring significant numbers of Mexican (and other Hispanic) troops to the French Foreign Legion and the purchase of a reasonable number of war supplies from the United Stats for shipment to the Western Front.
In return for the above the United States demands the following from the Allies. The US also makes clear that if the Allies refuse to accept... all transfers of armaments and other materiel will cease, loans will be halted and all Allied colonies in the Western Hemisphere will be declared in violation of the Munroe Doctrine and threatened with invasion. Germany will be treated with the same courtesy as the Allies (as both have willfully violated the Munroe Doctrine & U.S. Freedom of the Seas):
- Transfer of Allied merchant ships - must be transferred to the United States in full, effective immediately, as security on existing loans. The Allies will place heavy import tariffs on all non-U.S. merchant shipping for 25 years after the war.
- Naval Parity - America demands naval parity post-war with both the French and the British Empire (including dominion & colonial navies) in the Atlantic. It also demands naval parity with both Japan and Russia in the Pacific. This will be achieved through the transfer of Allied ships or captured German/CP ships to the U.S. Navy as a promise to repay future unsecured loans.
- Air Supremacy - The United States will receive aircraft to the effect of making its air power three times the size of all other nations on earth.
- Generous Trade Deals - All Allied countries and their colonies will abolish trade barriers (including tariffs etc) on American trade until midnight on 31 December 1999.
- Freedom of the Seas - United States vessels will be guaranteed total freedom of the seas indefinitely. This includes fishing rights etc.
- Mass weapons transfers to U.S. State Militias - After the war the massive amount of surplus weapons (artillery pieces, firearms etc) will be transferred all costs covered to the U.S. state militias.
- Extensive Technology Sharing - the Allies will share both industrial, scientific and military technical information with the United States.
- Global Imposition of Above Demands - the Allies will impose the above demands on their colonies and on the defeated powers. On top of this all parties to the final peace treaty will impose stringent embargoes and strict diplomatic pressure on all non-aligned nations until they accept the above demands. It is fully accepted the Untied States may use force within the Western Hemisphere to impose these same demands on any nation which refuses to comply. The major powers must declare their intent to do the same in their spheres of influence within one year of the end of the Great War.
Effects on World History (assuming the Untied States holds to this policy until the 21st Century):
- WWI - Treaty of Versailles pretty much unchanged. Strong US financial and industrial support in conjunction with robust diplomatic backing secure victory for the Allies. The transfer of Mexican/Cuban/Central American et al troops to the French Foreign Legion in conjunction with the arrival of Japanese forces on the Western Front (bribed by the US - see above) force Germany to launch the St Michael offensive in much the same way they did in OTL. Thus the war timeline and outcome go basically unchanged, even without Wilson I don't see any significant change in the map of Europe/Africa/Middle East etc. Allied recognition of Polish/Hungarian/Czechoslovak independence was largely a formality that would have been observed in any case.
- Inter-War - I see no reason why Mussolini and Ataturk will not come to power in Italy and Turkey as in OTL. I also see no significant change to the Russian Revolution or USSR (other than the exclusion of U.S. forces from the meager intervention against the Bolsheviks post-WWI). As such German Fascists probably still come to power (this timeline is not designed to keep the Nazi's from power etc as this was unknown to US policymakers at POD in March 1917). Given his determination, oratorical ability and effective party management I'm guessing Hitler comes to power in the early 1930s (I see no reason why there isn't still a Great Depression). Basically the US remains detached from European and world affairs (though has a bigger trade network, Navy and vast merchant fleet etc). Thus Europe and Asia broadly default to OTL.
- WWII - (assuming for arguments sake) the United States now has an entrenched foreign policy based on robust self-interest abroad and maintaining hegemony in its hemisphere. It also has an obvious vested interest in maintaining the Anglo-French led world order. The United States follows an equivalent policy from above towards Europe in WWII. I assume the Anglo-Japanese alliance remains stronger and the United States doesn't go to war with Japan (why would Japan attack in this scenario) thus averting the Pacific War - though China is still a mess & Japan probably gets Indochina should France fall as in OTL. Thus I think it's safe to assume Germany/Italy are defeated as in OTL with the Anglo-French and USSR spheres finishing roughly along the same borders. I see no reason for practical U.S. antipathy towards the USSR (by this time period under this scenario) but rather I see the Americans using WWII to extract concession in trade, naval dominance and technology sharing from Moscow along with the other Allies.
- Cold War - So pretty much we'd end this with a Cold War between and exhausted Anglo-French Alliance supported by an exhausted (due to the war in China) Japanese Empire in the Pacific. Japan contains the USSR in the Asia-Pacific (maybe China still goes Red, though this is irrelevant). By the end of the 20th Century decolonization and liquidation of the European empires has happened. I'm reasonably sure it will also end with an independent China in some form (due to its size etc). Lastly, the USSR collapses much as in OTL due to internal political and economic contradictions etc.
- Post Cold War - Basically, I'm confident the World Map looks pretty much like it does today (maybe Japan keeps some colonies, Hong Kong may stay British, maybe Germany doesn't reunite, perhaps Russia is a bit bigger etc). The Europeans are probably poorer due their need to invests in defence during the Cold War. The world is significantly less democratic without many liberal global institutions (UN probably doesn't exist) or effective human rights NGOs. A September 11 type attack will likely be targeted at London and Paris instead of Washington and New York. The US sits the War on Terror out while the Europeans get bogged down in Afghanistan.
A richer, probably more homogeneous and self-sufficient United States sits astride the world trade routes, with an even stronger grip on Latin America and Canada. US economic dominance is more entrenched in trade and finance. The Merchant Republic has fulfilled its goal of ensuring that no power dominates Afro-Eurasia and Oceania in the same way the United States dominates the Americas.
America's citizenry are rich, secure, free and well armed - (Note: I am not an American).