What if the US begins rearming early, just after Czechoslovakia? The reason given is to discourage Hitler from eventually attacking the US. The war department gets a 20% larger budget for 1938 then in OTL.
This idea likely would result in FDR getting the boot in the next election, due to his promise not to get Americans involved in a foreign war. Not much reason to re-arm, unless of course you want a war to start. Considering FDR's provocative actions in OTL, and his re-arming perhaps either he loses the nomination or a Republican is in the White House earlier. In 1940, Wendell Wilkie becomes US President, Pearl happens as per OTL, and then even crazier stuff happens thereafter.
The success of such a move would depend on what the money was used for, Increasing the size of the army is fine, but would you just build the tanks and aircraft currently available? Having more inferior weapons available when war breaks out might actually hurt the army. Congress might insist that they use the weapons they have already paid for rather than spending more to build new ones.
Now, if the money were spent on new weapons projects, and the army gets better tanks, fighters, and bombers a year earlier and in bigger numbers...
Wilkie may choose to follow strict neutrality with Germany and focus on Japan
Finally somebody brought that up. US tank designes were pieces of shit on tracks, to put it mildly. US would be saddled with them when the war starts.
Though large numbers of tanks can aid US armored doctrine, which was crappy, to put it mildly. More tanks to go around requires more officers and that can produce some good thinkers.
If you look at the 1938 - 41 period you will find that the U.S. did increase defense spending by more than 20% each year. As an example the Department of the Navy budgets for the period:
1935 $346,296,000
1936 $489,005,000
1937 $529,059,000
1938 $524,772,000
1939 $673,792,000
1940 $1,137,608,000
1941 $4,465,684,000
As you can see, starting with the 1936 Budget (1938 being an exception due to treaty limitations) the increases are (Budget year) to budget year 1936 41.12%, 1937 8.19%, 1939 28.4%, 1940 68.83%, 1941 (the final pre-war year) 292.55% followed by 373% in 1942, the first war year. The 1941 Navy Budget is almost a 13-fold increase over 1935.
The Department of War budget went up in a similar fashion (unfortunately my data sources for the War Department are not as well laid out as the Navy's), especially starting in 1938 forward. In 1935 the U.S. Army finally reached a long desired strength of 165,000, (active duty), in 1937`authorized strength, including the National Guard was up to 400K (Protective Mobilization Plan of 1937); in 1940 authorized strength was 227K active and 235K NG. By mid 1941 the Army reached manpower totals, including the now mobilized Guard of 1.5 million (a nine-fold increase from 1935).
Sources for the above are the Department of the Army & Navy historical document sites on the 'net.
Wilkie may choose to follow strict neutrality with Germany and focus on Japan, and thereby perhaps doom both the USSR and England to a defeat.
This idea likely would result in FDR getting the boot in the next election, due to his promise not to get Americans involved in a foreign war. Not much reason to re-arm, unless of course you want a war to start. Considering FDR's provocative actions in OTL, and his re-arming perhaps either he loses the nomination or a Republican is in the White House earlier. In 1940, Wendell Wilkie becomes US President, Pearl happens as per OTL, and then even crazier stuff happens thereafter.
Wilkie may choose to follow strict neutrality with Germany and focus on Japan, and thereby perhaps doom both the USSR and England to a defeat.
It is a 20% jump on OTL budget which makes it a total jump of about 19%. Increase following years likewise.
It'll be hard to pursue a policy of strict neutrality against Germany considering they declared war on the US as soon as the US declared war on Japan.
I have to disagree with you. The US tank designs in OTl were ahead of their time. The aim was to bulid tansk can could be mass produced and repaired quickly like the T-34.