America in a Central Powers Victorious World

[Ivan Druzhkov]

We've got threads for the Ottomans and the Soviets, so why not one for the bestest nation on Earth?

Let's just assume the same basic scenario from the other two threads: The Germans win in 1918, and a settlement is quickly negotiated thereafter. However, while the Americans traded with the Entente powers during the war, and while shots were traded in the Atlantic, Washington never directly intervened on the continent.

So, what happens now? Would the Germans start poking their noses into Latin America, as they had been doing before the war? Would anyone in the world take America seriously as a great power, or just view them as a band of money-men who don't like getting their hands dirty? What would happen to domestic politics, with isolationism reigning unchallenged?

 

[Dean_the_Young]

So, what happens now? Would the Germans start poking their noses into Latin America, as they had been doing before the war? Would anyone in the world take America seriously as a great power, or just view them as a band of money-men who don't like getting their hands dirty? What would happen to domestic politics, with isolationism reigning unchallenged?

What's the view in Europe, especially Britain? France may have surrendered, but Britain hasn't.

Personally, I think Germany will be too busy recovering and controling their new territories to be concerned with Latin America for a good long while.

The US will likely work with Britain and Canada to form Fortress America from the German threat. Latin America might be unwilling, but it will be a big part of the fortress. Look to see Germany as excluded from South America as the US will be from most of Europe..

With Europe and Africa under German influence, the US will probably expand its influence into Asia. Though Germany could pick up French Indochina, the US (and Britain) would force a struggle for any other influence. Depending on how paranoid the US is about Germany, the Philippines could be considered too important to grant independence, and another outcome would happen.

 

[Douglas]

The Germans probably don't poke their noses into Latin America for at least a decade: they have more important concerns, like feeding their population, occupying France and Belgium, figuring out what to do with the enormous mess that is Poland, the Baltic States, White Russia, the Ukraine, etc, helping out Austria-Hungary if they start to totter, and internal political affairs. Pissing off America is probably not issue number one, and if the Kaiser does try to do something like this, expect serious trouble at home ("So now you want to get us in another war? Mmmmm...is that the smell of a constitutional monarchy?").

America would still probably be taken seriously...the Germans took them seriously before they went to war, going so far as to cancel the extremely successful unrestricted submarine warfare for a time to avoid bringing down the wrath of the US. The UK has an economy to worry about, and the US will at the very least achieve naval parity, if not superiority, within less than a decade.

My question as regards to isolationism...how was it challenged during the 1920s? The Roaring Twenties seem to me at least to be the very definition of modern isolationism, so I don't see there being that much of a difference.

 

[Jared]

We've got threads for the Ottomans and the Soviets, so why not one for the bestest nation on Earth?

Then why isn't this thread about Lichtenstein?

So, what happens now? Would the Germans start poking their noses into Latin America, as they had been doing before the war? Would anyone in the world take America seriously as a great power, or just view them as a band of money-men who don't like getting their hands dirty? What would happen to domestic politics, with isolationism reigning unchallenged?

I'd actually expect that Germany would have its hands full in Europe and Africa, and have little time or ability to get involved in Latin America.

America may not be taken that seriously by the general public, but government leaders should be aware of its industrial potential and huge population, so it shouldn't be underestimated entirely.

 

[Tom_B]

No Prohibition. Storyville would not be closed meaning a somewhat slower flow of jazz musicians though unfortunately I don't think Jazz will be stillborn.

Hearst and Mencken were marginalized a while for opposing American involvement in World War One. Their exile would be less severe and shorter in TTL. Hearst's move to the Right --which stemmed in large part to his disgust with Wilson over the war--might be less pronounced.

American banking will take a hit esp JP Morgan: TNG as Entente loans are not able to be paid in full. OTOH the second largest banking firm Kuhn & Loeb with ties to the Rostchilds which only reluctantly loaned to the Entente late in the war may emerge as the dominant bank. There could be a serious economic slump in 1919 taking 2 years to rebound.

There would in certain circles, esp. Henry Cabot Lodge, be a great worry about Germany. However a 1918 victory for Germany leaves that nation barely hanging on in a war of exhaustion. By 1920 it is realized that if there is any German menace at all it is long term not immediate.

 

[Locke]

To tell the truth, Germany wasn't all that weak as it appears to have been at the end of the war. It was simply a matter of timing. Several great German offenses were coming up, and due to a number of internal political circumstances, the war got cut short in the Allie's favor.

Germany would, however, not be totally unaffected, IMO it would probably be in the same state as OTL victorious Britain.

I also doubt they would take over all of France and her possesions outright, as it wouldn't be good to suddenly be ruling over several million people who hated you and spoke a diferent language. I'm betting they would demilitarize bordering provinces, as well as Belgium and such, but would keep Denmark, Netherlands, and their gains in Russsia, as well as some former French overseas territories.

 

[Max Sinister]

Most interesting point: Can Britain and France pay their debts back to the US?

 

[Jared]

Most interesting point: Can Britain and France pay their debts back to the US?

All the debts they paid up until 1916 or so were secured. So, yes, they could be paid back, and the USA would insist on it.

 

[MerryPrankster]

What makes you think that there would be a Cold War between the US and Germany?

 

[David S Poepoe]

Pissing off America is probably not issue number one, and if the Kaiser does try to do something like this, expect serious trouble at home ("So now you want to get us in another war? Mmmmm...is that the smell of a constitutional monarchy?").

Interesting, he hadn't gotten Germany into any previous war.

 

[Douglas]

What makes you think that there would be a Cold War between the US and Germany?

Because they had been at war for almost a year? And Germany had defeated America's closest trading partners? Not necessarily a Cold War, but hardly buddies, internationally speaking.

 

[Douglas]

Interesting, he hadn't gotten Germany into any previous war.

I would say that Germany's belligerence was at least one cause of World War One, if not the major cause (giving A-H a diplomatic "blank check", mobilizing quickly, making ridiculous demands of France).

 

[sumwhereinCA]

i doubt the Germans would want to mess with America. I got the impression that most of the German High Command didnt want to agtagonize the americans during the war so wat would change afterwords. I think theyll be more concerned with Britain

 

[Dave Howery]

hopefully, isolationism won't sink in so deep as to prevent the US from building up it's navy.... if there's going to be a 'Fortress America', a big navy is priority #1.

What would the US armed forces be like without the experience they gained from fighting in WW1? I'm guessing smaller and naive....

 

[David S Poepoe]

I would say that Germany's belligerence was at least one cause of World War One, if not the major cause (giving A-H a diplomatic "blank check", mobilizing quickly, making ridiculous demands of France).

But that was done both by the Kaiser's cabinet and the Army High Command, not the Kaiser.

 

[Riain]

The US gives back the liner fleet they impounded and kept during/after the war. The US completes the huge battlefleet they were building late in WW1, and probably end up using this fleet on Japan in the late 30s. Isolation is not an option for the US and it comes out as a superpower.

 

[1940LaSalle]

On the domestic politics front, I'd guess the Democrats are going to be in trouble for at least two presidential elections: Wilson's reputation may be ruined for all time as the president who got the US into a stalemated/losing war to no apparent gain. The Democrats' nominee in 1920 (Cox? Clark? Underwood?) will almost certainly have to put as much distance as possible between himself and Wilson, to the point of telling Wilson that his presence on the campaign trail is decidedly unwelcome.

The Republicans will surely play on this malaise over the recent war by running a series of very conservative candidates that will likely give isolationism (with respect to Europe, anhyow) a running start. You can forget Leonard Wood as a candidate; his military background would be too painful a reminder of all that went wrong (never mind that he wasn't involved; it's all about perception). Similar comments apply to Hoover: surely he would have been associated to some degree with Wilson's war effort, and in any event, his party affiliation was in some doubt. It's possible that a middle-of-the-road midwesterner like Missouri's governor Hadley (a possible compromise between TR and Taft in 1912 in OTL) might have emerged, but equally likely is a succession of Hardingesque candidates who want to re-set the calendar to McKinley's day. The progressive wing of the Republicans will be in eclipse for some years.

The bottom line: in the 1920s, both parties will run a series of colorless, bland, conservative-to-reactionary candidates, at least in the short term (through at least 1924 IMO).

 

[Tom_B]

We've got threads for the Ottomans and the Soviets, so why not one for the bestest nation on Earth?

Let's just assume the same basic scenario from the other two threads: The Germans win in 1918, and a settlement is quickly negotiated thereafter. However, while the Americans traded with the Entente powers during the war, and while shots were traded in the Atlantic, Washington never directly intervened on the continent.

So, what happens now? Would the Germans start poking their noses into Latin America, as they had been doing before the war? Would anyone in the world take America seriously as a great power, or just view them as a band of money-men who don't like getting their hands dirty? What would happen to domestic politics, with isolationism reigning unchallenged?

I will note several posters have assumed that the US entered the war and the Entente still lost BUT if the assumptions you list stipulate the USA did enter but conducted vigorous trade with the Entente (though I'm not sure what the shots traded in the Atlantic means other than the World War 1.9 error). My comments were based on the assumption of no entry only a leaning neutrality. IT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE.

 

[Dave Howery]

On the domestic politics front, I'd guess the Democrats are going to be in trouble for at least two presidential elections: Wilson's reputation may be ruined for all time as the president who got the US into a stalemated/losing war to no apparent gain.

the OP says that the US never actually got into the war, and limited itself to selling supplies to the Allies...

 

[CDurham]

but would keep Denmark, Netherlands, and their gains in Russsia, as well as some former French overseas territories.

Denmark and the Netherlands never got involved, they were neutral throughout the war.

For Russia, see the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk on Wikipedia

Some former French AND British terratories. They might not get South Africa or India, but they might demand, and get Malaysia (sp?) and Kenya