America Be Watching With The Popcorn: A Sino-Soviet War TL

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McPherson

McPherson

Banned
pjmidd said:
Nope . in an air burst the only material that can be contaminated and spread as fallout is basically the bomb itself. Its only if the fireball in whole or part touches the ground ie some form of ground burst, that enough material would be sucked up to cause any issues. Environmental damage would be minimal if the bombs went off at optimal height for blast ( which is what an airburst should detonate at )
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It is a question of the size of the burst and the vacuum effect. There IS a vacuum effect and it will suck up debris.

However I do agree that "silo busters" as opposed to city-killers will have much larger quantities of fallout.

Since a 2.5 megaton has a surface breakaway of about 625 meters above height for direct surface contamination effect it would be likely that the detonation would occur at optimal air burst above this height. It depends though. How good was Russian fusing? If it was like their rockets of the era... NTG.
 

pjmidd

McPherson said:
It is a question of the size of the burst and the vacuum effect. There IS a vacuum effect and it will suck up debris.

However I do agree that "silo busters" as opposed to city-killers will have much larger quantities of fallout.

Since a 2.5 megaton has a surface breakaway of about 625 meters above height for direct surface contamination effect it would be likely that the detonation would occur at optimal air burst above this height. It depends though. How good was Russian fusing? If it was like their rockets of the era... NTG.
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Some debris yes but as its not not engulfed by the fireball, that's all it is. Its not radioactive fallout, seriously check a simulation site like say Nukemap , the only way to get fallout is to detonate the bomb at 1/2 to 1/3 the optimum altitude for blast. Russian altimeters were never that bad , now if we where taking CEP it would be different but that's why the bombs were big to compensate :) .
 
McPherson

McPherson

Banned
pjmidd said:
Some debris yes but as its not not engulfed by the fireball, that's all it is. Its not radioactive fallout, seriously check a simulation site like say Nukemap , the only way to get fallout is to detonate the bomb at 1/2 to 1/3 the optimum altitude for blast. Russian altimeters were never that bad , now if we where taking CEP it would be different but that's why the bombs were big to compensate :) .
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I really don't need a nukesim to visualize the results or math it out, but thank you very much for the suggestion. Also Russian electronics were CRAP in that era, otherwise I would write an ATL in which the Walker Spy Ring led to the defeat of the USN and I would not be laughed off these boards for sheer ASB storytelling.

Russian warheads going off late as their radar altimeters failed is not only plausible, it was most likely.
 

lukedalton

Zrttr said:
It might sound cold, but, as a whole, it seems like this war was worth it for the Union. It asserted itself as the foremost military power in the world and showed the ability of its nukes, as well as pretty much nullifying the chances of China taking Siberia from it further down the line. The money from the reparations is compounded by the assertion of military might to really make it fearsome in the eyes other communism countries. I predict Alabania rejoining the eastern bloc a couple of years after China was nuked to oblivion, and maybe the revolutions of the late eighties won't happen at all. Hell, maybe even the presidents of the individual SSRs, especially Belarus and Ukraine, won't have the guts to go up against Moscow.
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Well, let's see:

- North Korea gone and the penisula has been reunified by an american ally.
- North Vietnam had make peace with the USA in term favorable to Washington or at least with an high degree of saving face.
- Fought an intercine communist war with China losing at least 3 city and a couple of millions of men, not counting wounded losing an enormous amount of soft power in Western Europe alone as a lot of national communist party will be even quicker than OTL to take their distance from Moscow, basically an earlier eurocommunism.
- China is dirty poor and even more after the war, the possibility that she can repay the URSS is the same of Germany payback the WWI reparation on schedule and so the Soviet Union had fought a costly conventional war that had spent blood and tresure and diverged a lot of needed resources...sorry, modern war don't make anyone rich unless you are the supplier that live an ocean away from the fight
- In Asia nation like Japan, South Vietnam and Korea will be even more attached to the USA due to the need of their nuclear protection umbrella...or in any case an indepedent nuclear program will be now an objective of a lot of nation basically the just signed NPT is due to quickly collapse.
- Egypt can forget all the nice toys obtained OTL, the URSS need first to rebuild his stock so is more probable that the Yom Kippur War is delayed with all the butterfly involved

So, i have a lot of difficult to see all this scenario as a win for the Soviet Union, sure she had took care of a potential adversary at geopolitical level that's also competition in the communist rank, still the entire affair has been ungodly costly...and nobody with some functioning brain cell will even think to use a nuclear warhead to resolve a revolt in East Europe as it's too risky due to NATO
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

The Congressman said:
Makes sense.

On another note, North Vietnam must be shitting its pants. With the aid from their communist allies drying up, I bet Nixon sees a chance to end the war quickly and decisively.

Linebacker II the North and invade Laos to cut the Ho Chi Minh trail, and the North is fucked
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I could see Nixon doing, or trying to do, some sort of deal over Vietnam.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

The Gunslinger said:
Given Russia's overwhelming superiority in nuclear weapons, air superiority, and shaky Chinese intelligence apparatus I almost think the Russians wipe out the entire Chinese nuclear arsenal before it even gets in the air.
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The Soviets certainly believes that the Chinese nuclear forces were a minor threat. compared to to the possibility of mass invasion of Soviet territory.
In early 1969 the Chinese have had fission weapons in series production (rather than effectively hand built one-offs) for around a year but only a few (<10, possible only 2-3) fusion weapons. They are limited in delivery systems, especially for the larger weapons (and doubly so for the thermonuclear weapons), to mostly Badger clones, which at the time are limited to pretty much daytime and medium (<10km) altitude.
The have a handful of DF-2 missiles (SS-3 Shyster clones) but production and (especially) training only really began in '68 (due to the perceived Soviet threat).
This is a rather limited system with a range of around 1,200km and a terrible accuracy (multiple kilometres) making it's small (~12kt fission) warhead basically useful only for counter-value strikes. The missiles takes 10-12 hours to prepare for launch and is somewhat mobile (requiring a large number of support vehicles, a convoy easily detectable). The Chinese probably have ~10 units available in early 1969.
China lacks light tactical weapons deployable by lighter aircraft such as fighters.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

CV12Hornet said:
Okay. Hope you like doing it six 500-lb bombs at a time, because that's the max that can be done with conventional loadouts while still having the range to get to Vladivostok from just the closest air base in Japan. Any further and you've got to start tanking them up, which is going to be difficult to arrange with the strategic forces on high alert.

Phantoms are also just as occupied with shit in Southeast Asia as every other tactical type in the inventory. And yeah, without any decent standoff munitions SAMs are going to consistently ruin their day.
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It also assumes the Japanese are happy in putting themselves in the front line of a potential nuclear war.
 
McPherson

McPherson

Banned
Seandineen said:
I hate to see this path, perhaps his wife who had polio, suffers a health crisis, and begs Bob to help her.
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Treason trial followed by conviction and sentencing. Or send him to the Hague to be an example for other (alleged and not yet convicted) war criminals.
 

Major Major

Consider what is going to happen to all the Maoists. Not the Chinese ones, but like the people in the U.S. who chanted, "Mao, Mao, Mao Tse-tung!" at student protests. Their beloved Great Leader shown up as a man who provoked the devastation of his land.
 
McPherson

McPherson

Banned
ImperialxWarlord said:
I get that you don’t like him but why would that happen if it didn’t happen iotl?
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America is like the horse with blinders at that period in History. What should have been done was not done because the sight was hobbled.
theflyingmongoose said:
Especially since most UN Human Rights officials are likely concerned with the tens of millions who died in China and the USSR.
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One cannot help what happens in China or the USSR in the RTL or in this ATL, but the Americans do/did have a say about their own war criminals.
 
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