Alternatives to Shuttle Program

Assume that NASA never pursues the Shuttle as a space launch system. What alternatives might we see? I’ve see plenty of proposals for various heavy lift options to get back to the Moon or go to Mars, but much less for more regular LEO operations.

Put another way: Could we see an evolution of Apollo into a Soyuz-like system of iterative development?
 
Go read Eyes Turned Skyward.

But seriously, the realistic alternatives are the low cost things that can be done with Saturn IBs and maybe Saturn Vs. Skylab B flies, maybe as a joint Skylab/Salyut project, a more permanent mobolithic station is launched at some point, Big Gemini is much talked of, but may or may not happen. Assuming Saturn V production, the LM Taxi/LM shelter with lunar surface rendezvous is probably a thing that goes ahead, and we are three man longer two launch missions on at MOST a biannual but imo more likely annual basis. Experiments with wet workshops would make a lot of sense with the potential to launch a lunar orbital Skylab and the Venus/Mars flybys it makes possible with Apollo based equipment, though I doubt these missions will actually go ahead. Assuming lunar exploration is the direction things go long run there's going to be a real temptation to build the LESA landee, but I doubt funding will exist.

All in all I like what seems liekly, but this is going to feel like a stagnant program to a lot of people and something like the shuttle is probably one inevitable, albeit on that emerges around the time of Star Wars...
 
Go read Eyes Turned Skyward.

Really Eyes wasn't terribly plausible. It's a nice fantasy story, and was miles ahead of any space AH I am aware of written before it came along, but space history has come a long way even in the short years since Eyes was written and space AH has come even further. So things that seemed plausible when Eyes was written are now known to be economically or politically impractical or just bad engineering.

In all honesty, the Saturn V's days were numbered before Apollo 11 lifted off and the Saturn IB had its goose cooked by the Apollo 1 fire.

There is an extremely slim possibility that instead of the Shuttle the US might have re-started the Saturn IB production line, but the rocket, for all the advantages we can see in hindsight, did not look good if all you have to go on is what was known in 1970 when solid rockets or reusable LOX-hydrogen rockets looked to be the wave of the future and Titan was the best of current technology.

And since the Saturn IB and Saturn V are difficult for NASA to keep flying, Apollo is difficult to keep flying as well.

The most likely alternative to the Shuttle is a civilian space program built around Titan rockets, likely either with a "big Gemini" capsule or (more likely) with a glider like the HL-10 or (with larger relatives of the Titan) a mini-shuttle with maybe 5 tonnes cargo capacity. All hopes for manned programs reaching beyond Earth orbit would be ruthlessly crushed by Congress, but a more interesting space station program to succeed Skylab (something like the Soviet Salyut stations) and the development of practical NERVA rockets are possible.

If NERVA results in actual flying nuclear rockets, then things could get rather interesting. But the engineers would need to win over the public and Congress on safety and Congress would need to be reassured that NERVA derived technology wouldn't suck the US into an expensive Martian quagmire (well, quagmire from their perspective).

fasquardon
 
In all honesty, the Saturn V's days were numbered before Apollo 11 lifted off and the Saturn IB had its goose cooked by the Apollo 1 fire.

The Production of Saturn IB and Saturn V ended on LBJ order because of rising cost and need of money for other things, had noting to do with Apollo 1, more with Vietnam war...

So let Shuttle program died, what next ?
one option would be reactivation of Saturn V productions (installation were mothballed between 1968 and 1973) for production of Saturn INT-20 or INT-21 version for Low earth orbit flights.
they could bring Skylab like station into Low orbit and Send Apollo CSM with Cargo container to it. either on Saturn INT-20 or only modified CSM on Titan IIIM to station

resuming Apollo type mission to moon would only happen, if Soviet cosmonauts land also on Moon
but this would only feasible, if soviet moon mission happen in early 1970s

Another alternative would be MOL is transfers from USAF to NASA in end of 1960s (means without classified hardware)
and after Apollo - Skylab would NASA use MOL during second half of the 1970s on.
 
Assume that NASA never pursues the Shuttle as a space launch system. What alternatives might we see? I’ve see plenty of proposals for various heavy lift options to get back to the Moon or go to Mars, but much less for more regular LEO operations.
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